Quantifiable Economic Truth

Earlier this year I said I predicted no interest rate increase at all. That may have been a myopic point of view. Obviously the FED does not WANT to raise interest rates. But after saying "recent economic activity might justify an interest rate increase" soooo many times, eventually you have to follow through on that statement. Otherwise you start to look INCREDIBLY hypocritical. This is what happened in 2016. The FED "threatened" to raise interest rates all year and finally did raise them by 1/4 of 1% in the last meeting of the year. I believe that was simply to save face. And it would not surprise me at all to see a similar "interest rate increase" happen at the end of this year. Especially considering that it will be after the election and thus will not effect the result.

The earthquake that hit Italy will probably be the straw that breaks their economies back. Especially their banks.

It would not surprise me a bit to see the Fed call an emergency meeting before their scheduled on on July 26/27

I don't think it is out of the realm of possibility to see Trump assassinated if he starts causing too many problems for powerful people.

I think it is very likely we will see a silver shortage within the next twelve months and while it is less likely, we could see a gold shortage in that time frame too.

This might be bad for Britain's economy in the short run but much better for them in the long run.

Assuming the economy does not implode before the election, I predict that when Trump wins, they will do everything in their power to make the economy crash shortly after he takes over.

Deutsche bank is grasping at straws. You can expect some catastrophic things to happen to them by the end of the year.

As I predicted, the jobs data was terrible. Since jobs data is all the Fed and main stream investors seem to pay attention to, you can expect stocks to start really plummeting in the next few months since the jobs data is going to continue to be terrible. Along with the rest of the economic data.

I meant to post this prediction months ago and just realized that I forgot. While politics is not my niche, economics is and with the economy in massive recession plus the potential criminal lawsuits against Hillary, how can trump lose? Trump will be out new president.

WOW. Imports dropped 70%! This is huge. I guess the stores finally realized they had WAY too much inventory. We can expect stores inventory to fall off a cliff here soon and for the sales to inventory ratio to balance back out. That will also lead to massive layoffs.

First quarter GDP comes out Thursday. It will be extremely low if not negative and will be revised negative in the coming months if it does not start out there. Obama is going to look like a fool after his statement saying anyone who says the economy is weak is peddling fiction. Trump will definitely use this to his advantage and so will Bernie. I would not be surprised to see them doubly seasonally adjust the number even though this is the warmest weather we have had in decades.

The economic numbers are becoming so bad that it can not be ignored by mainstream media anymore. The first quarter will be negative unless it gets "double seasonally adjusted" which I suspect it will. Expect the crash to start being talked about on every media source in the coming months and for panic to ensue. This is the time to get gold and silver to protect yourself.

With all the data coming in these past few days and the emergency Fed meetings, it looks like this might be the calm before the storm. Bear Stearns anyone?

As I predicted, the car market it getting much worse. I feel comfortable saying that the car market crash is definitely underway and you can expect it to be all over the news in the coming months. Article Link: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-04-11/used-car-price-plunge-could-bring-whole-house-cards-down

It looks like the sales to inventory ratio might have reached its peak. You can expect declining inventory and layoffs because of this throughout the rest of the year. Article Link: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-04-08/wholsale-inventories-drop-most-2013-sales-miss-slowdown-accelerates