COVID PROPHECY - July 2020
But here we go (not "witty" yet). This is in response to an article and comment thread from July 2020. I think I did a pretty good job describing where we were headed with COVID, despite this being the the summer lull (before the storm) in the first year of the pandemic.
Prevailing sentiment was we were over the hump. Scientists were warning "not really." Back of the envelope common-sense math follows.
Ultimately, we did better than this. I was describing what was basically "let it rip till herd immunity." We have 1.1M counted deaths from COVID so far (not 2M, even if 1.1M is undercounted by 20-30%). But we went back to those pesky mask mandates and all that other stuff, at least in many locations. We hit 1M+ infections per day (this is different from positive tests by a factor estimated at 4-10 back in the days before at-home tessting) multiple times in 2020 and 2021. Fortunately by the time the monster waves in late 2021 came along, many people had been vaccinated or had survived one or more previous COVID infections and had some immunity.
Article: https://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/healthcare/505817-rand-pauls-exchange-with-fauci-was-exactly-what-america-needed/#comment-4978867546
First of all, not everyone will contract COVID-19. At some point, absent everything else, we will reach herd immunity. This will be maybe 70% of the population, maybe 90%. The percentage will vary depending upon population density and behavior.
Why Mr. Maloney implies that deaths will continue at their current low rate, I have no idea. Is he deliberately lying? Is he such a "Young American" that he can't think or read? Are these not things any longer? Does he choose not to understand mathematics and the passage of time?
Absent policies to moderate the spread of the virus, and widespread compliance with them, our positive test results, and a much larger number of actual infections, will continue to grow. At a guess, we will have 100,000 positive tests per day within 3 weeks, and depending how things go, a somewhat higher peak for a while after that. This will come with 1,000,000-2,000,000 actual infections per day in September-October.
The current low end of the estimates of IFR (infection fatality rate) are around .5%. Perhaps this is too high. Nevertheless, with that IFR, 1,000,000 infections per day will result in 5,000 deaths per day (with a ~30+ day lag) unless we have more effective treatment in 2-3 months.
The deaths will take some time to develop. We are starting to see an upward trend in some states. It will soon appear everywhere. Deaths are not going to decrease where cases are hugely increasing and hospitalizations are maxing out ICUs. Who in the world believes this? What idiot can possibly believe this. As I have said recently:
"Why do you think no one can be that stupid? What are you, stupid?"
With an IFR of .5% and an optimistic number of 200,000,000 infections to reach herd immunity, we will have 1,000,000 deaths, by year-end, as there is nothing to the current trajectory that suggests we have any intent or ability to alter it. But this number seems too low, doesn't it, with a likely number of ~20,000,000 total infections (current and past) in the US and ~130,000 deaths already (strongly believed to be a ~30% undercount via extremely solid analysis of "all causes" mortality). The more likely figure is an IFR closer to 1% (some analyses have begun to raise that number, which surprises me) which will bring us back to that staggering number of ~2,000,000 deaths to "achieve" herd immunity (what an achievement!) that Donald Trump proclaimed he has "saved" us from.
Every number of fatalities that our administration has claimed we would suffer from COVID-19, we have experienced. But I think the lack of understanding is that we were led to believe these numbers would be the end, not mileposts along the way.
This is all on the menu for us in the second half of this year. It is laid out in front of us plain as day unless we come to our senses.
It is not necessary for "all of us" to get this disease. It's not necessary for us to continue contracting it in droves. In the past, *all* incurable, transmissible diseases have been managed. Humanity still exists, right?
Social distancing is a well known and well understood mechanism that has been used for millennia to deal with infectious diseases. It's a shame for us to have to resort to it; it's even more a shame that we won't.
We make fun of Europeans -- I certainly do -- and yet we look like to the world idiots for our lack of bravery, our lack of sacrifice, our division, our scientific illiteracy, our superstition, our never-ending WHINING, as we fail to recognize and confront something that is going to start killing us again, this time by 1,000s per day, while the rest of the world simply does what's necessary.
We're starting to see the jammed ICUs again. This time, in many states.
The domestic supply chains for PPE, testing supplies, materiel needed to fight infection once it appears (which it shouldn't have in this quantity), they were never established. There are shortages already. Not everywhere, but the pipeline isn't elastic.
Severity of disease appears to be proportional to intensity of exposure. Once again, we will start to see our health care personnel and first responders affected by severe cases.
Newer standard of care is highly likely to reduce fatalities, so hopefully if we just "let it run through" (and whatever other idiotic expressions have been used for that non strategy), 2,000,000 won't be the number. But it will still be enormous.
Do we really want any of this? I don't. Do you?
This doesn't even address any "syndrome" that may emerge as sequelae to COVID-19. Chronic fatigue-like symptoms, possibly related to long-term or permanent organ damage from clotting, have emerged as something that affects a significant proportion of survivors across all age groups regardless of health. Pervasive, minor clots and mini-strokes seem likely.
Intubation also generally causes permanent lung damage. Medically induced coma and intubation are better for you than death but much worse than good health. High dose steroids such as were used to treat original SARS cause bone degeneration (hip/femur deterioration in particular). Current treatment protocols are using low dose steroids ... I think ...
You, Mr. Maloney, need to get your head out of the sand and look straight ahead at what's coming.
