Rockets fans, rest easy. (Maybe)
Taking a spin on point guard wheel
Rockets most active participants
By John Hollinger | ESPN.com
At the center of it all are the Rockets, who have divested themselves of two quality point guards (Dragic and Lowry), may be reuniting with a third (Brooks), and have an offer sheet out to a fourth (Lin). It's a bit odd that they let Dragic walk when his four-year, $30 million deal with Phoenix seems completely reasonable for a youngish, productive starter who engineered some of the Rockets' best basketball last season; that they are offering Lin the same money speaks volumes about how they value each of them.
It's less odd to see Lowry walk, if only because of how much he clashed with coach Kevin McHale, but on pure talent this unquestionably is a major setback for Houston. To offset it, they effectively bet that even with Lowry, the Raptors will screw things up enough to miss out on the playoffs at least once in the next half-decade, and perhaps will screw them up royally enough to end up in the top five.
Houston did this thanks to a clever piece of "reverse lottery protection" -- Houston rolls the pick over to the next year if it isn't in the lottery. (Toronto gets a bit of protection on the high side as well; top-3 next year, top-2 the next two years, and top-1 the two years after that, according to the Houston Chronicle).
Nonetheless, they seem to be rapidly dismantling their not-quite-an-8-seed roster of seasons yore. Dragic and Lowry are gone, and Courtney Lee's qualifying offer was revoked. At the same time, Houston is set to give Omer Asik a generous offer sheet and perhaps do the same with Lin.
The ultimate goal here still seems to be a rental of Dwight Howard, but with a Plan B of having assets to obtain another superstar and a mix of short-term thinking mixed in; the Rockets seem uninterested in anything that will tie up their cap space too long if it's not for a star player, and want as many assets as possible to help a potential trade partner rebuild. But at the same time, they would like a rim protector and a dynamic point guard.
Perhaps they thought Dragic just wasn't the guy, but the Rockets have also kept for themselves a ton of flexibility. Even after bowling over Asik and potentially Lin with big offers, they'll still be several million dollars under the salary cap, which affords the ability to take a bad contract or two off the Magic's hands while also relieving them of Howard. They can also instantly blast another $9.4 million hole in their cap by amnestying Luis Scola.
And of course, Houston now has trade assets aplenty -- six No. 1 picks from the past three seasons, all of whom are on rookie contracts, plus the guaranteed lottery pick from Toronto, plus a future first from Dallas, plus four non-guaranteed contracts and a fifth (Shaun Livingston) that only has $1 million in salary protection, plus a huge expiring deal (Kevin Martin's $12.4 million) to use as cap ballast.
This can work for Howard, but it can just as easily work at the trade deadline for some other unnamed star, or for next summer when the Rockets will have even more cap space. But at some point, it does need to work.
What the Rockets have essentially done is build a house on spec; they're hoping like hell somebody buys it and maybe somebody will, but they didn't have a contract when they put the shovel in the ground. Right now they're probably the league's most alluring trade partner, and you have to think that at some point somebody will spring a star loose in return for the Rockets' assets.
For now, call them Team Tom Petty. The waiting will be the hardest part.