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𝗢𝗠𝗖 𝗠𝗶𝗻𝘂𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸: 𝗗𝗼𝗹𝗹𝗮𝗿, 𝗚𝗼𝗹𝗱 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗬𝗲𝗻 𝗕𝗲𝘁𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗻 𝗜𝗻𝗳𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗣𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗰𝘆 𝗖𝗹𝘂𝗲𝘀 – 𝗡𝗼𝗿𝗱𝗙𝗫

All eyes turn to Wednesday, August 19, when the Fed drops the minutes from its July 28-29 meeting. 📊 The vote itself was already a story: 9-3 to hold rates at 3.50-3.75%, with three members pushing for an immediate hike. That's a rare hawkish split, and the minutes should reveal how wide the crack really is.

💵 𝗗𝗼𝗹𝗹𝗮𝗿: DXY is hovering near 99.5, still soft after weaker US data. Bigger test ahead: new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh gives his first Jackson Hole keynote on August 28. He's dialed back forward guidance, so this speech could move markets more than any single data print.

🥇 𝗚𝗼𝗹𝗱: XAU/USD is flirting with $4,400, up sharply this month. Fading hike bets, an unresolved Strait of Hormuz standoff and general political turbulence keep safe-haven demand strong. A hawkish surprise in the minutes could spark a quick dip, but the bigger trend still favors gold.

💴 𝗬𝗲𝗻: USD/JPY sits around 159, having given back roughly half the gains from the record joint US-Japan intervention in July. A soft Japanese Q2 GDP print isn't helping. A push toward 160 without fresh intervention would raise fresh questions about Tokyo's resolve.

🎯 Light on data, heavy on signals: minutes, retail earnings (Home Depot, Walmart, Target), and Friday's flash PMIs all set the tone before the September 15-16 FOMC decision.

🌅 𝗡𝗼𝗿𝗱𝗙𝗫 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲 – 𝗔𝘂𝗴𝘂𝘀𝘁 𝟭𝟳, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲

🌏 𝗔𝘀𝗶𝗮𝗻 𝗦𝗲𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗼𝗻 🇯🇵 Nikkei 225 up 0.4% near 69,012 as tech leads (Kioxia, SoftBank); Q2 GDP came in softer than expected 🇭🇰 Hang Seng opened higher (~+0.7%–1.3%), though broader Asia-ex-Japan shares are flat overall 🇰🇷 South Korea closed for Liberation Day 🇨🇳 Eyes on China's July industrial output and retail sales data, due later today

💵 𝗙𝗼𝗿𝗲𝘅 EUR/USD holding 1.1600–1.1650, eyeing the 1.1610 zone USD/JPY steady near 158–159, yen firm on BoJ hike bets and a softer dollar Dollar broadly weaker Monday after last week's soft US data

🛢 𝗖𝗼𝗺𝗺𝗼𝗱𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗲𝘀 Brent crude steady near $88.50/bbl, WTI ~$82.10 – Strait of Hormuz still effectively closed Gold firm near $4,390/oz, holding gains as Fed hike bets ease

📉 𝗕𝗮𝗰𝗸𝗱𝗿𝗼𝗽 Oil posted sizeable gains last week on stalled Hormuz talks; Iran urged the US to "accept defeat" over the weekend 11 killed in Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon Saturday, adding to regional risk Fed September hike odds near 30%, down sharply from over 65% two weeks ago

📅 𝗧𝗼𝗱𝗮𝘆'𝘀 𝗙𝗼𝗰𝘂𝘀 China activity data, US housing/industrial figures, and headlines from the Strait of Hormuz remain the key drivers

𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸𝗹𝘆 𝗙𝗼𝗿𝗲𝘅 & 𝗖𝗿𝘆𝗽𝘁𝗼 𝗙𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗮𝘀𝘁: 𝗔𝘂𝗴𝘂𝘀𝘁 𝟭𝟳–𝟮𝟭, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲 📊

Gold hit a 10-week high, Brent surged past $88, and the Fed's next move is anyone's guess 👀

This week's calendar is loaded 🔥 🏦 FOMC Minutes (Wed) 🇨🇳 PBoC rate decision (Thu) ⛰️ Jackson Hole Symposium opens (Fri) 📈 Flash PMIs across the US, UK & Eurozone

Here's what our analysts expect for: 💶 EUR/USD 🛢️ Brent Crude 🥇 Gold 🥈 Silver ₿ Bitcoin Ξ Ethereum

Key levels, support/resistance zones, and our baseline view for each instrument 👇

🔗 Read the full forecast: https://nordfx.com/market-news/forex-cryptocurrency-forecast-august-17-21-2026?utm_source=social&utm_medium=post&utm_campaign=nordfx

⚠️ Not investment advice. Trading involves risk.

𝗡𝗼𝗿𝗱𝗙𝗫 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗪𝗮𝘁𝗰𝗵: 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗜𝗻𝗳𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗡𝘂𝗺𝗯𝗲𝗿 𝗬𝗼𝘂 𝗦𝗲𝗲 𝗙𝗶𝗿𝘀𝘁 𝗠𝗮𝘆 𝗡𝗼𝘁 𝗕𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗢𝗻𝗲 𝗠𝗼𝘃𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗖𝗵𝗮𝗿𝘁

📊 July's US inflation print looked sleepy. Headline CPI up just 0.1% month over month, 3.4% year over year. Core CPI eased to 2.5%. Traders exhaled, rate cut hopes stayed alive.

🎭 Nice story. Not the whole story.

Buried inside July's producer price data was a very different signal: core PPI (excluding food, energy, and trade services) jumped 0.4%, four times June's pace, powered by a 6.5% spike in portfolio management fees. That exact line item feeds straight into core PCE, the number the Fed actually watches. Not CPI.

📅 Mark it: August 26. That's when July's core PCE drops, and June's reading was already stuck at 3.3% for months. If the PPI heat carries through, everyone positioned for a quiet drift into September's Fed decision could get a rude wake up call. ⚡

🌍 Layer on Middle East linked energy swings and a Fed that split 9 to 3 on its last vote, and "quiet summer" is not the phrase we'd use for late August.

💡 Bottom line: the number that trends isn't always the number that moves. Smart traders read past the headline.

🌅 𝗡𝗼𝗿𝗱𝗙𝗫 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲 – 𝗔𝘂𝗴𝘂𝘀𝘁 𝟭𝟰, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲

📊 𝗔𝘀𝗶𝗮 𝗦𝗲𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗼𝗻 🇯🇵 Nikkei 225: ~68,400 – tracking a 6% weekly gain, chip stocks lead 🇭🇰 Hang Seng: ~25,190 (–0.8%) – tech under pressure Sentiment: risk mood firm into the weekend, but fresh Hormuz incidents keep traders cautious 🟡

💱 𝗙𝗼𝗿𝗲𝘅 EUR/USD: 1.1536 (+0.07%) USD/JPY: back under 159.40 – fresh BoJ hike bets and intervention warnings from Tokyo 👀

🪙 𝗖𝗼𝗺𝗺𝗼𝗱𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗲𝘀 Gold (XAU/USD): slipped below $4,320 – pressured by firmer US data tone 📉 Brent Crude: ticking higher – US threatens indefinite naval blockade on Iran, ADNOC reports vessels struck in Hormuz ⚠️

🔎 𝗧𝗼𝗱𝗮𝘆'𝘀 𝗪𝗮𝘁𝗰𝗵 🇺🇸 US Retail Sales (July) 🇺🇸 Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Aug, prelim) – forecast 54.1

⚠️ Elevated geopolitical risk around Hormuz. Trade smart, manage risk.

𝗣𝗣𝗜 𝗜𝘀 𝗜𝗻: 𝗛𝗲𝗿𝗲'𝘀 𝗛𝗼𝘄 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗣𝗶𝗽𝗲𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗲 𝗜𝗻𝗳𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗦𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘆 𝗔𝗰𝘁𝘂𝗮𝗹𝗹𝘆 𝗣𝗹𝗮𝘆𝗲𝗱 𝗢𝘂𝘁 | 𝗡𝗼𝗿𝗱𝗙𝗫

This morning we flagged US PPI as the number to watch. It's out now, and the details are more interesting than the headline. 👇

📊 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗻𝘂𝗺𝗯𝗲𝗿𝘀 Final demand PPI was flat in July (0.0% MoM), cooler than the sticky pipeline pressure some feared. But look closer: core PPI (ex food and energy and trade) jumped +0.4% MoM, a clear acceleration from June. Year over year, core sits at 4.7%.

⚡ 𝗪𝗵𝘆 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘀𝗽𝗹𝗶𝘁 𝗺𝗮𝘁𝘁𝗲𝗿𝘀 Headline calm, core hot. Falling energy and gasoline prices (-5.7% for gas alone) dragged the topline number down, while services and underlying goods prices actually firmed. That's not the disinflation story markets wanted, it's a reminder that pipeline pressure hasn't gone away, it's just being masked by cheaper oil for now. 🛢️

💵 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 This is exactly the kind of mixed print that keeps the Fed's hawkish camp in the conversation. A soft headline gives the doves cover, but a hot core keeps the door open for those already pushing back on rate cuts. Expect yields and the dollar to stay choppy as traders digest which half of the report wins out. 🔄

💷 𝗔𝗻𝗱 𝗚𝗕𝗣/𝗨𝗦𝗗? With UK Q2 GDP already confirmed stronger than forecast this week, cable remains caught between two central banks facing the same dilemma: solid growth data versus inflation that won't fully cooperate. The push and pull continues. ⚖️

Bottom line: don't trade the headline number alone, the details tell the real story today. 🎯

𝗨𝗦 𝗣𝗣𝗜 + 𝗨𝗞 𝗤𝟮 𝗚𝗗𝗣: 𝗧𝘄𝗼 𝗚𝗿𝗼𝘄𝘁𝗵/𝗜𝗻𝗳𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗦𝗶𝗴𝗻𝗮𝗹𝘀, 𝗧𝘄𝗼 𝗖𝘂𝗿𝗿𝗲𝗻𝗰𝘆 𝗥𝗲𝗮𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 | 𝗡𝗼𝗿𝗱𝗙𝗫

Two economies, two data drops, two very different currency stories this week. Here's the fast breakdown. 👇

🇺🇸 𝗨𝗦 𝗣𝗣𝗜: 𝗽𝗶𝗽𝗲𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗲 𝗶𝗻𝗳𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘀𝗽𝗼𝘁𝗹𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁 Thursday's PPI follows a CPI that came in cool: +0.1% MoM, +3.4% YoY, right on forecast. But underneath, oil has been climbing again on Strait of Hormuz tension, and that pressure usually hits producers before it reaches consumers. PPI is the market's earliest warning sign. A hot print, paired with a shockingly weak July jobs report (payrolls -23K vs ~85K expected), would revive the one scenario traders fear most: sticky inflation next to a cooling labor market. 😬

📊 𝗗𝗼𝗹𝗹𝗮𝗿 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝘆𝗶𝗲𝗹𝗱𝘀: 𝗼𝗻 𝗮 𝗸𝗻𝗶𝗳𝗲 𝗲𝗱𝗴𝗲 DXY is parked right around the 100.00 handle, still digesting the soft jobs data. The US 10-year yield sits near 4.68-4.70%, off its recent highs as September hike odds cool. A firm PPI print could reignite the hawkish camp instantly, three FOMC members already dissented for a hike last meeting, pushing yields and the dollar back up. A soft print does the opposite. 🎯

🇬🇧 𝗨𝗞 𝗤𝟮 𝗚𝗗𝗣: 𝗮 𝗾𝘂𝗶𝗲𝘁 𝗯𝗲𝗮𝘁 The UK just posted +0.4% QoQ and +1.2% YoY for Q2, both a touch above forecast, though cooler than Q1's 0.6% pace. Services carried the load again while consumers stayed cautious. Growth isn't the BoE's official mandate, but it shapes rate bets directly. The Bank held at 3.75% in July with three of nine members already pushing for a hike, and this beat keeps that hawkish lean alive, especially with UK 10-year gilt yields near 4.98%. 📈

💷 𝗚𝗕𝗣/𝗨𝗦𝗗: 𝘀𝗾𝘂𝗲𝗲𝘇𝗲𝗱 𝗯𝗲𝘁𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗻 𝘁𝘄𝗼 𝗰𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗹 𝗯𝗮𝗻𝗸𝘀 Cable's trading in the high-1.3400s to just above 1.3500, a one-month high, with dollar softness doing most of the work. A GDP beat plus a soft US PPI is the classic bullish combo, potentially opening a path to 1.3600. Flip the script (hot PPI, weak GDP) and 1.3480, then 1.3400, come right back into play. ⚖️

🌍 𝗭𝗼𝗼𝗺 𝗼𝘂𝘁 Middle East tensions keep oil, and inflation expectations everywhere, jumpy. A split Fed and a BoE facing the same growth-vs-inflation puzzle mean every print can swing rates, yields, and FX in minutes. Watch price action, not yesterday's trend. ⚡

Two releases, two central banks, one hyper-reactive currency market. Stay sharp. 🚀

🌅 𝗡𝗼𝗿𝗱𝗙𝗫 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲 – 𝗔𝘂𝗴𝘂𝘀𝘁 𝟭𝟯, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲

📊 Asian session: broadly positive. Nikkei 225 is up ~1.3–1.4%, near 68,400, extending its rally for a second day. South Korea's KOSPI is surging over 4% on reports Temasek plans to take stakes in SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics. Shanghai's benchmark is modestly higher, while Hong Kong and Australian shares lag behind.

🇺🇸 US inflation (July CPI, out yesterday): headline +0.1% m/m, 3.4% y/y – core +0.2% m/m, 2.5% y/y. Both matched forecasts exactly, leaving the Fed's next move an open question.

💵 USD Index: holding above the 100 mark after paring its brief post-CPI dip. 💶 EUR/USD: trading in the low 1.1500s, pressured by the wide Fed–ECB rate gap. 💷 GBP/USD: high-1.3400s, cautious ahead of today's UK Q2 GDP release. 💴 USD/JPY: flat near 159.40 in Asia – intervention risk keeps a lid on gains, 160.00 is the level to watch. 🥇 Gold: holding near $4,400–4,410/oz, close to two-month highs on central-bank buying and Middle East tensions. 🛢️ Oil: WTI ~$83–84/bbl, Brent ~$89.50 – still supported by Strait of Hormuz risk.

📅 Later today: US PPI (core seen slowing to 4.2% y/y from 4.7%) and jobless claims – the next potential volatility trigger across USD pairs and gold.

⚠️ Data-heavy day ahead – manage your risk carefully!

𝗡𝗼𝗿𝗱𝗙𝗫 𝗖𝗿𝘆𝗽𝘁𝗼 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸𝗹𝘆: 𝗔𝘂𝗴 𝟬𝟱-𝟭𝟮, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲 🚀

📊 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗦𝗻𝗮𝗽𝘀𝗵𝗼𝘁 ₿ Bitcoin traded between roughly $63,900 and $65,900 through the week, easing to about $63,964 by Aug 11 as traders de-risked ahead of Wednesday's CPI print. Ξ Ethereum followed BTC lower, down to $1,873 on Aug 11 after trading near $1,915 earlier in the week. Staked ETH also crossed 34% of total supply for the first time. 💰 Spot Bitcoin ETFs snapped a 7-day, $455.3M inflow streak, flipping to a $144.6M net outflow on Aug 10, a sign institutional buyers are getting more cautious at these levels.

🔥 𝗦𝗽𝗼𝘁𝗹𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁: 𝗕𝗶𝘁𝗰𝗼𝗶𝗻 𝗕𝗲𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝗖𝗣𝗜, 𝗩𝗼𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘆, 𝗙𝘂𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 & 𝗗𝗼𝗹𝗹𝗮𝗿 𝗦𝗲𝗻𝘀𝗶𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗶𝘁𝘆 All eyes are on Wednesday's July CPI report (Aug 12), this week's macro pivot. BTC slipped toward the $63,900 zone into the release as risk appetite thinned and the 10-year Treasury yield sat at 4.66-4.70%. Deribit options data shows $64,000 as max pain, a $63,500 put wall, and a $66,000 call cluster, meaning dealer hedging could pin or amplify the move once the number hits. A cool print would support the Fed's recent dovish tilt and could open a path toward $66K+. A hot print risks reviving rate-hike bets, strengthening the dollar, and pressuring BTC back toward $63K, possibly $60K support. Funding rates stay on a knife's edge until the data lands.

🏛️ 𝗣𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗰𝘆 & 𝗣𝗼𝗹𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗰𝘀 🇺🇸 The Senate postponed the long-awaited CLARITY Act floor vote to mid-September, despite a procedural push by Majority Leader John Thune before the August recess. Regulatory clarity for digital assets stays on hold. ⚖️ Senators Warren and Blumenthal pressed SEC Chair Paul Atkins to investigate Trump's own $TRUMP memecoin for alleged fraud and "unjust enrichment," a rare case of Congress targeting a sitting president's own token.

🔐 𝗦𝗲𝗰𝘂𝗿𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝗪𝗮𝘁𝗰𝗵 ⚠️ The Coldcard hardware-wallet exploit kept growing this week, with loss estimates revised up to roughly $120-130M and 1,596 BTC confirmed stolen from a five-year-old firmware flaw, sparking a wider self-custody security review across the industry.

🍕 𝗙𝘂𝗻 𝗙𝗮𝗰𝘁 Base, the Ethereum layer-2 network, has already processed $26.1 TRILLION in stablecoin transaction volume in 2026, with five months still left in the year. That's already more than all of 2025's $17.5 trillion total. Quiet infrastructure, loud numbers. 📈

🌅 𝗡𝗼𝗿𝗱𝗙𝗫 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲 – 𝗔𝘂𝗴𝘂𝘀𝘁 𝟭𝟮, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲

🌏 𝗔𝘀𝗶𝗮 𝘀𝗲𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗼𝗻: Mixed. Kospi surged +2.44% intraday to fresh record highs, leading the region. Nikkei 225 barely moved (+0.08%), resuming trade after a holiday. Hang Seng futures pointed ~0.4% lower on weaker HK sentiment, while Shanghai traded flat-to-mixed. MSCI Asia-Pacific index +0.4% overall, helped by strong tech earnings.

🥇 𝗚𝗼𝗹𝗱: $4,396/oz, +0.14%, holding just under the key $4,400 resistance – analysts see it range-bound ahead of CPI.

🛢️ 𝗢𝗶𝗹: Brent ~$90/bbl (+1.2%), WTI ~$84/bbl (+1.3%) – both up on Red Sea tanker attacks and Strait of Hormuz risk, even as diplomats signal progress on reopening it.

💶 𝗘𝗨𝗥/𝗨𝗦𝗗: ~1.1530–1.1540, softer, awaiting German HICP and today's big US release.

💵 𝗨𝗦𝗗: Dollar steady-to-firm, all eyes on US CPI.

📊 𝗧𝗼𝗱𝗮𝘆'𝘀 𝗺𝗮𝗶𝗻 𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗻𝘁: US CPI (July) drops at 8:30 AM ET. Forecast: headline +0.1% m/m / 3.4% y/y, core +0.32% m/m / 2.5% y/y. A hot print could revive Fed rate-hike bets and hit gold/EUR; a soft one could fuel risk appetite.

⚠️ Geopolitics (Hormuz, Red Sea) remain a live wildcard – expect volatility spikes.

𝗚𝗼𝗹𝗱 𝗷𝘂𝘀𝘁 𝗵𝗶𝘁 $𝟰,𝟰𝟭𝟳. 𝗡𝗼𝗿𝗱𝗙𝗫 𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝘄𝗮𝘁𝗰𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘄𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗵𝗮𝗽𝗽𝗲𝗻𝘀 𝗻𝗲𝘅𝘁.

Six weeks of sideways chop, then a clean breakout above $4,220 resistance. Gold's now swinging between $4,416 and $4,495 today alone, holding well above its 50-day average, with momentum firm but not stretched. 🟡

𝗪𝗵𝘆 𝗶𝘁'𝘀 𝗺𝗼𝘃𝗶𝗻𝗴 Iran talks over the Strait of Hormuz have stalled again, oil is climbing, and Wednesday's US inflation print could decide whether the Fed holds or cuts. That's three catalysts stacked in one week.

𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗽𝗹𝗮𝘆 This is exactly the kind of setup where reacting late costs you the move. A pending order lets you pick your level now, say a pullback toward $4,220 or a breakout continuation above $4,495, and let the market trigger it for you.

𝗛𝗼𝘄 𝘁𝗼 𝘁𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗶𝘁 Open a NordFX demo, place one pending order at the level you're watching, and see how it plays out through Wednesday's CPI release. 📈

👉 https://my.nordfx.com/en/registration?utm_source=social&utm_medium=post&utm_campaign=nordfx

🌅 𝗡𝗼𝗿𝗱𝗙𝗫 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲 – 𝗔𝘂𝗴𝘂𝘀𝘁 𝟭𝟭, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲

🌏 𝗔𝘀𝗶𝗮: Tokyo closed for a holiday, Sydney and Hong Kong trading flat. RBA held rates at 4.35% as expected. Singapore Q2 GDP beat forecasts at +5.9% y/y, with the 2026 growth outlook raised to 4.5–5.5% on AI-driven investment.

💵 𝗘𝗨𝗥/𝗨𝗦𝗗: Trading near 1.1542, softening slightly as the dollar firms ahead of key US inflation data.

🛢️ 𝗢𝗶𝗹 𝘀𝘂𝗿𝗴𝗲𝘀: Brent jumped to $87.60 (+4.9%), WTI to $82.10 (+5.0%) – a fresh drone strike on a Saudi refinery and hardening Iranian rhetoric on the Strait of Hormuz reignited supply-risk premiums.

🥇 𝗚𝗼𝗹𝗱: Climbing to $4,448/oz (+1.1%), drawing safe-haven demand from the oil-driven risk flare, even as the dollar strengthens.

📊 𝗧𝗼𝗱𝗮𝘆'𝘀 𝗳𝗼𝗰𝘂𝘀: US CPI (Wed) and PPI (Thu) are the week's main catalysts for Fed rate-path bets, alongside EIA/API crude inventory data.

⚡ Volatility is already picking up – buckle in for the rest of the week!

𝗖𝗣𝗜/𝗣𝗣𝗜 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵 𝗡𝗼𝗿𝗱𝗙𝗫: 𝗖𝗮𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗝𝘂𝗹𝘆 𝗙𝗲𝗱 𝗠𝗲𝘀𝘀𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗦𝘂𝗿𝘃𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗜𝗻𝗳𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗗𝗮𝘁𝗮?

📊 The Fed's story faces its first real test this week. US July CPI drops Wednesday, August 12, PPI follows Thursday, August 13.

Two weeks ago, Chair Kevin Warsh and the FOMC held rates at 3.50%-3.75% for a fifth straight meeting, a split 9-3 vote with three members wanting a hike. Their message: inflation is still too high, and rates are staying higher for longer.

🛢️ Since then, the picture has flipped twice. Oil driven by the Iran conflict and tariff pressures pushed September hike odds as high as 82%. Then a shockingly weak July jobs report, with payrolls actually shrinking, cut those odds back down fast. Markets are on edge, and this print decides which story wins.

💰 Gold is caught in the crossfire, holding near $4,300 an ounce, still off January's record above $5,500 but climbing again as traders hedge both sticky prices and Fed confusion.

⚡ Hot data revives hike bets, lifts the dollar and yields, and pressures gold. Soft data hands the doves their case back. Either way, FX, gold and equities are set for a wild ride.

📊 𝗡𝗼𝗿𝗱𝗙𝗫 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲 – 𝗔𝘂𝗴𝘂𝘀𝘁 𝟭𝟬, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲

🌏 𝗔𝘀𝗶𝗮: Nikkei +2.1%, Kospi +0.7%, Hang Seng +0.6% – Asian equities extend Friday's Wall Street rally despite Hormuz jitters. Shanghai hit a 3-week high after China's trade surplus widened to $112.5B, even as July CPI cooled to a 6-month low.

💵 𝗨𝗦𝗗: Dollar stays pressured, DXY under 100 after Friday's shock US jobs report (–23K vs +80K expected) boosted Fed rate-cut bets.

🥇 𝗚𝗼𝗹𝗱: XAU/USD holds near a 7-week high around $4,340–4,350, riding the weaker dollar.

🛢️ 𝗢𝗶𝗹: Brent near $83.80 (+~1%) as Iran ties any Hormuz reopening to sanctions relief and war compensation – no breakthrough yet.

💶 𝗘𝗨𝗥/𝗨𝗦𝗗: trading near 1.1550, keeping the edge as the dollar struggles.

📅 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝗮𝗵𝗲𝗮𝗱: US CPI (Aug 12) 🇺🇸, US PPI & UK GDP (Aug 13) 🇬🇧, US retail sales (Aug 14), RBA rate decision.

⚠️ Expect choppy trade – geopolitics and inflation data both in play.

𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸𝗹𝘆 𝗙𝗼𝗿𝗲𝘅 & 𝗖𝗿𝘆𝗽𝘁𝗼 𝗙𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗮𝘀𝘁: 𝗔𝘂𝗴𝘂𝘀𝘁 𝟭𝟬–𝟭𝟰, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲 📊

🚨 Markets just got shaken by a shock US jobs report — payrolls fell 23K in July, way below the +85K expected. The dollar dropped, gold and silver posted their best week since January, and Bitcoin & Ethereum caught a bid on renewed Fed rate-cut hopes 🟢

Here's what's coming up and where the key levels sit 👇

💶 𝗘𝗨𝗥/𝗨𝗦𝗗 — 1.1521. Base case: 1.1350–1.1700 🛢️ 𝗕𝗿𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗖𝗿𝘂𝗱𝗲 — $82.21. Base case: $75–$88 🥇 𝗚𝗼𝗹𝗱 — $4,342.18. Base case: $4,150–$4,500 🥈 𝗦𝗶𝗹𝘃𝗲𝗿 — $64.13. Base case: $57.50–$72.00 ₿ 𝗕𝗶𝘁𝗰𝗼𝗶𝗻 — $65,029. Base case: $60,500–$68,000 🔷 𝗘𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿𝗲𝘂𝗺 — $1,916. Base case: $1,700–$2,050

⚡ The big catalyst ahead: US CPI on Wednesday and PPI on Thursday — plus ongoing developments around the Strait of Hormuz. Buckle up 🎢

📖 Read the full forecast with resistance/support levels and baseline views for every instrument: 👉 https://nordfx.com/market-news/forex-cryptocurrency-forecast-august-10-14-2026?utm_source=social&utm_medium=post&utm_campaign=nordfx

𝗡𝗙𝗣 𝗥𝗲𝘀𝘂𝗹𝘁𝘀 𝗔𝗿𝗲 𝗜𝗻: 𝗝𝘂𝗹𝘆 𝗣𝗮𝘆𝗿𝗼𝗹𝗹𝘀 𝗦𝗵𝗼𝗰𝗸 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 | 𝗡𝗼𝗿𝗱𝗙𝗫 𝗜𝗻𝘀𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁 📊

The number just landed, and it flipped the script completely. 😮

Heading into today, the setup was hawkish: the Fed had just held rates with three policymakers pushing for a hike, and markets were leaning toward a September increase. Then the data hit.

The U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, a sharp miss against forecasts of roughly 80,000 gains. To make it worse, June's already soft +57,000 was revised all the way down to just +20,000. 📉

Here's the breakdown:

🔻 Payrolls: -23,000 (vs +80,000 expected) 🔻 June revised: +57,000 → +20,000 📊 Unemployment rate: 4.1% (down from 4.2%) 📊 Labour force participation: 61.4%, the lowest in over five years 🏛️ Losses concentrated in local government education (-50,000) and retail trade (-19,000)

This is exactly the "beyond the headline" story we flagged earlier this week. The lower unemployment rate looks reassuring on the surface, but it's being driven by people leaving the workforce, not by stronger hiring. Combined with another steep downward revision, the internals paint a weaker picture than the surface number suggests. 🧩

Market reaction has been swift ⚡

💵 Odds of a September Fed rate hike dropped to under 44%, down from 57% just before the release, reversing weeks of hawkish positioning 🥇 Gold jumped, trading above $4,400 an ounce 💲 The dollar came under fresh pressure

With the Fed's September decision now genuinely in play and political and geopolitical noise still swirling, expect volatility to stay elevated across USD pairs, gold and equities in the sessions ahead. 🔥