you've got to try

None of this tariff business makes sense.

Trump claims that tariffs will mean more income for the government, allowing the reduction of income taxes. He also claims that it will force more manufacturers to move factories to within the United States. 

But if manufacturers move their operations to be within the US so they don’t pay tariffs anymore, then there will not be a subsequent increase in income from those tariffs. More goods produced here for our consumers means fewer goods coming into the country to generate tariff income.

Also, Trump claims that tariffs, if they increase the cost of consumer products that are imported, will drive US consumers to seek cheaper, US made products. The result would be demand for more US products. So if demand for imports decreased, again, income from tariffs will decrease. Also, until US-made alternatives are made available, consumers who cannot afford higher priced items will not be able to participate in the economy, which will cause a slowdown in consumer spending. This can lead to a recession.

And then some of the carve outs of the tariff policy directly work against this notion. While congress had passed legislation in 2022 that would encourage production of microchips within the United States, Trump has carved out microchips from the tariffs now imposed on Taiwan, where we get most of the chips used in US manufacturing. How does this encourage US production?

Additionally, other countries will likely increase tariffs on goods made in the US, decreasing demand for US exports. 

Another point the president made is that these tariffs would affect fentanyl imports coming in from Canada and elsewhere. While opioid addiction is a terrible problem, I fail to see how tariffs would affect this. If fentanyl is being smuggled across borders and evading border inspections, at no point would that fentanyl be subject to a tariff. Legally imported fentanyl for medical use might be affected, but the concern is illegal use of the drug, not prescribed legal dosages. I only see this negatively affecting legitimate users of imported pharmaceuticals.

The entire tariff scheme breaks down when closely examined. Were you, like me, shocked to hear that, for example, Indonesia imposes 64% tariffs on US goods? They don’t. Economist James Surowiecki figured out where Trump’s numbers are coming from:

Politico followed up with a more comprehensive article today: 

“Trump and his advisers simply took the U.S. trade deficit with the European Union — $235.6 billion in 2024 — and divided it by the bloc’s exports to the U.S., which totaled $605.8 billion. 

The result was 39 percent, which the administration interpreted as the “unfair” trade advantage the EU holds over the U.S. From there, the White House proposed a 20 percent tariff, framing it as a corrective measure to level the playing field.”

A trade deficit is the difference spent on imports from a county vs what that country imports from us. Americans buy more goods than we produce partially because we have a robust economy. But using these trade deficits and claiming them as tariffs just distorts the issues.

Many things might be better if we had more manufacturing within the United States. But even a return to manufacturing would need some guardrails for worker protections, environmental protections, and an attention to small and mid-size manufacturers, not just large corporations. Nowhere in the administration’s policies do I see these kinds of thoughts. And if we did manufacture more things, we would need open markets for the sale of the goods we would make. Tariffs are the very antithesis of open markets.

Maybe everyone else is wrong. I know the loss of manufacturing has been devastating to many areas of the US over the past decades. But now we’re going to target those same people who 20 or 30 years or more ago moved jobs as their plants closed. They’re now retired or planning to retire and all that value they pumped into retirement accounts gets flattened again because not only do the gurus who run the stock markets hate a trade war, but the guy making these decisions is unpredictable and they hate that too. 

As a nerdy kid who was too attached to the TV, I watched morning news before school, evening news with my parents, and sometimes weekend news talk shows. I was relatively aware of current events and politics, even if naive about the meaning of it all. 

I remember hearing that social security would be bankrupt before those working in the 80s would retire, much less for Generation X to gain the benefit. I remember Reagan talking about the debt and spending. I remember Perot with his flip chart commercials talking about the deficit. I remember Gore’s “lockbox” solution to protecting Social Security while we tighten our finances. For as long as I can remember, the US has been inching toward bankruptcy, spending it’s future, and saddling my generation and those that came after with debt. 

But we’ve continued to spend. GOP and Dem administrations alike cut taxes and increase spending. Cut the budget, but don’t touch the biggest slices of the pie like defense. And all the time - “we can’t afford that program”, “the deficit is terrible”, “we’re in so much debt”. We can’t afford to help out the poor, the disabled, the under privileged. If they’d only learn to help themselves, we could all prosper, but you’re condemning your grandchildren to poverty if we spend more to help them now. 

Does anyone else remember this? I never hear it discussed that these problems have been around for half a century and their dire predictions have never come true. I’m politically aware but I can’t understand how when programs were going to be untenable 40 years ago they are still around. We can’t possibly afford to shore up these safety nets, but we can cut taxes and not cut the budget and we’re still around to spend more. It sounds like, frankly, horseshit. 

It sounds to me like someone has been trying to scare us. While the working classes are tightening their belts and trying to find a bootstrap to lift themselves up by, corporations, criminals, and the top 1% are getting richer and more powerful and eating even larger slices of the pie. 

Just like the billionaires can exploit the loopholes in the system to prevent them from ever falling on really hard times, our country - the wealthiest in the world - exploits the systems we helped create to keep us on top. Why shouldn’t we exercise that power to help our working class - people who really need help - and bring everyone along, rather than condemn anyone to poverty and disease? 

There’s more rumblings of secession in political spheres. Texas legislators introducing bills on “Texas’ Independence”. Sitting members of congress talking about “national divorce”. Mostly from the right, but then folks on the left laugh and say how nice it would be to not have to worry about those red state yokels.

People who talk like this - in terms of "red state" and "blue state" and a "national divorce" - on both sides of the aisle are playing into the hands of the corruption they claim to want to get away from. Billionaire criminals who accumulate power want the people to fight each other and squabble over scraps, while they capture our institutions and continue to build fortresses around themselves to keep us out. They continue to operate with impunity, while we cower in fear, die in pandemics, drink the water and breathe the air they poisoned in the name of profit.

https://twitter.com/sarahkendzior/status/1265662859763204096

“There is no such thing as a 'red state' or 'blue state'. All are purple states. There are predominantly Dem or GOP *governments*, but they don't necessarily reflect the culture on the ground due to gerrymandering, voter suppression, etc. They want to break up the US into parts and then profit off the wreckage, à la the Soviet Union, and so they need to compartmentalize it. One way to do that is to harden and weaponize these categories of 'red' and 'blue.'"

On March 20, 2003 I was at a VFW post helping a local community theatre group get ready for an upcoming performance at the venue. I was new to the area & the group. I had recently joined the group to try to meet people & be involved in the community. I’m introverted, so this was a difficult step for me. 

I had viewed the run-up to the Iraq war with dread. I had developed a naive “end of history” mindset growing up in the post-Cold War era. The US had won. Peace and democracy prevailed. There would be struggles, but we had evolved past wars of territorial conquest or ideological superiority. It had been “the economy, stupid” that moved us now and forever more would engines of commerce power global changes. The 9/11 attacks were shocking and painful, but we would respond with measure and mercy.

And then we didn’t respond with measure and mercy.

I grudgingly accepted the “just” nature of the invasion of Afghanistan. We had an imperative to stop those who would act with terror against the innocent. But Iraq was different. It never made sense. 

As the first pictures of the invasion showed itself on the TV screens above the bar at the VFW, the two or three veterans present and several of my theatre troupe cheered. They remarked about how great it was to be at the post during this momentous occasion. 

I felt sick. A great portion of the world increasingly saw the US as the bad guy, and we were proving it to them. This was brutal and unjust. I felt a real loss - that the promise of the fall of the Berlin wall, the dissolution of the Soviet Union, and the end of the Cold War was ruined.

I heard second-hand that a high school student working with us said something about the war-mongering nature of the group, and she was told how she “was just too young and naive to understand”. I didn’t argue with these folks - it’s never been in my character to debate. Even after they offered me a board position, I couldn’t accept it - I just didn’t respect them after this and couldn’t see myself in social settings with them while they celebrated these acts of war.

Today our administration may be embarking on another morally suspect adventure, this time at the hands of a President who has been impeached, who shows no conscience, and who holds the respect of only a small portion of the electorate. The contradictions in this action are immense (For example: Suleimani’s assassination shows expert work by our intelligence community which the President perpetually maligns), but we will be told it is “retaliation” and “peace through strength”. There will be calls for unity and patriotism. 

Perhaps there will be de-escalation. Perhaps this is not part of a larger scheme to save the administration. Perhaps we have evolved and there will be enough restraint as a result. But I am not optimistic.

I’m searching for the optimistic view today after our country’s unilateral assassination of an Iranian general, and the only solace I can find is the upcoming election. Is there enough movement away from our decades-long “war” on terrorism and extra-judicial killing through drones that maybe we can develop a mindset toward diplomacy, coalition building, and global peace instead? Can we fight for an end to fighting? Can we unite not for jingoism but for compassion?

In the immediate aftermath of 9/11, TIME magazine published a Lance Morrow op-ed calling for “rage and retribution” and the columnist reminded us of JFK’s remarks to his parents during WWII that Americans are at their best during the very best times or the very worst. Morrow urged us to act out and fight against the “evil” that attacked us. (1)

I was appalled at the use of Kennedy to rally to war then. I understand Kennedy’s record is mixed at best (as are the records of all heroes who are, in simplest terms, human), but Kennedy also gave a remarkable speech on peace on June 10, 1963 (2). The speech itself called out Communism and the Soviet Union to allow other countries their own sovereignty, but embedded the arguments in a call for peace:

“... We shall also do our part to build a world of peace where the weak are safe and the strong are just. We are not helpless before that task or hopeless of its success. Confident and unafraid, we labor on--not toward a strategy of annihilation but toward a strategy of peace.”

The start of that paragraph, however, is unnerving: 

“The United States, as the world knows, will never start a war. We do not want a war.”

That may have been a bit of a stretch in ‘63, but what the world knows now - after March 2003 and after January 2020 - is something altogether different.

http://content.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,174641,00.html

It was the mid-to-late 80′s and I was growing up a part of the MTV generation. I had stayed up late to catch an early showing of Michael Jackson’s “Thriller”. I was entertained by ZZ Top’s “TV Dinners” and “Legs”. Rockwell’s “Somebody’s Watching Me” kind of freaked me out. And then there was a guy in sunglasses and a Mad Hatter hat cutting into a girl that was actually a cake.

Stop walking down my street Who did you expect to meet? Whatever you’re looking for Hey, don’t come around here no more

My earliest Tom Petty memory is the “Don’t Come Around Here No More” video, but if I reach back farther I may have seen “You Got Lucky” before that - I must have - and rocked to that tune while enjoying the desolate, dystopian future scene.

As I formed a musical identity - picking, because that’s what you did, my favorite band - I landed on Tom Petty and the Heartbreakers. I liked his distinct voice. I could drum along with the rocking but uncomplicated drums. I could pick out Mike Campbell’s guitar against Tom’s rhythm guitar, and I enjoyed the great melodies and harmonies. I liked being a fan of “rock” - not hard rock, or pop, or metal, or any other qualifier - just “rock”. That’s what the Heartbreakers were to me.

And I showed you stars you never could see Babe, it couldn’t have been that easy to forget about me

I think I started with Southern Accents, and then Damn the Torpedoes (I was embarrassed about the “Damn”). And then came the Wilburys. Petty and Harrison? And Dylan - who I thought was awful until I learned better and learned to love his Wilbury contributions - and these other guys Lynne and Orbison (forgive me, I was just learning). 

Maybe somewhere down the road a ways You’ll think of me, wonder where I am these days Maybe somewhere down the road when somebody plays Purple haze

When I started high school in the 90s, Tom Petty released his solo album, and the mellow, sometimes somber tones of Full Moon Fever called to the moodiness of my adolescence. He was a 40-year-old, but I felt he was singing to us, about us.

Sometimes you’re so impulsive, you shaved off all your hair You look like Boris Karloff and you don’t even care

You’re dancin’ at the Zombie Zoo

My best friend became a fan as well, and we played Full Moon Fever over and over again as I began to delve in to the past albums and discover more there, especially Southern Accents. We banged out “Don’t Come Around Here No More”‘s round-robin beats and marveled at Benmont Tench’s crazy solo in “It Ain’t Nothin’ to Me”. I’ve seen Tom Petty five times, and at least three of them with that friend.

Tom Petty was a rocker to us, but the band was quirky, too, harkening back to the crazy introduction that was the video for “Don’t Come Around Here No More”. “Yer So Bad” was fun. Simple, driving rhythm and simple, modern lyrics. And just off-center enough that not everyone enjoyed it. Being a Tom Petty fan was a way to define ourselves.

Well the man out to end us had a hurricane business He’d raise them from babies all by himself But his teen-age accountant had become surrounded He drank up the party and everyone left

Somehow, I convinced my mother to buy me and two friends tickets to a Tom Petty and the Heartbreakers concert in ‘91 and she let me drive us there an hour away. (Thanks, Mom!) My first big concert was memorable as the band played with a giant inflatable tree as the back drop, Tom pulled out the Mad Hatter hat from a glowing chest, and Stan Lynch started the first measures of “Don’t Come Around Here No More”. The song ended with a jam as, for some rather unexplicable reason, men with presidential masks (Nixon and Reagan, at least, probably Ford and Bush I, as well) first chased Tom and then, as the strobes began, Tom vanquished them with a giant, sparkling peace sign.

It was a memorable and fulfilling night.

I thought of you starry-eyed, I wonder where we stand? Did I just fall from your arms Down into your hands?

Then, I got to share my love of Tom Petty and the Heartbreakers with my girlfriend, who became my wife, and some of my best memories are seeing the band with her or riding in the car with the new Wildflowers CD in the player, or playing that same album for my sons when they were babies. When we went to separate colleges after high school, we made a mix tape and I had a few Tom Petty songs on there. She’s accompanied me on all but one of my experiences seeing the band in concert.

Baby you’re the only one that’s ever known how To make me want to live like I want to live now

Tom’s got a great catalog of music that I will cherish forever. Whatever my mood, I can find Petty tunes to fit it or help change it. Nostalgic? “Southern Accents” and “Straight Into Darkness” or “Angel Dream”. Need motivation? “Rebels”, “Six Days on the Road”, or “Runnin’ Down a Dream”. Sing-a-long time? “The Waiting”, “Free Fallin’” or “End of the Line”. Looking for some sunshine? “Honey Bee”, “Kings Highway”, or “Wilbury Twist”.

Sing a little song of loneliness Sing one to make me smile

As a writer, I loved the stories Tom would tell. Love lost or love gained. Memories of the past or hopeful promises of the future. While even I will call many of them simple, bluesy songs at their heart, there are many perfectly crafted nuggets of poetry.

Yeah, she could hear the cars roll by, Out on 441 like waves crashin’ on the beach

I understand now, Prince and David Bowie fans. I felt those losses generally as a fan of rock and pop, but it didn’t feel like this. Regrets that I didn’t see him one more time in concert, or five more times, or take my sons to see him perform. Knowing I will never meet the man whose lyrics and music are woven into the tapestry of my life and the lives of those I love. I never really believed I would, but it was always a possibility - a fleeting thought.

What is there left to say? Let’s thank the man who gave us so much.

How bout a cheer for all those bad girls? And all those boys that play that rock and roll? They love it like you love Jesus, It does the same thing to their souls.

Something that's been bouncing around in my brain often in the past year and again this week:

"Those who won our independence believed that the final end of the state was to make men free to develop their faculties, and that in its government the deliberative forces should prevail over the arbitrary. They valued liberty both as an end and as a means. They believed liberty to be the secret of happiness and courage to be the secret of liberty. They believed that freedom to think as you will and to speak as you think are means indispensable to the discovery and spread of political truth; that without free speech and assembly discussion would be futile; that with them, discussion affords ordinarily adequate protection against the dissemination of noxious doctrine; that the greatest menace to freedom is an inert people; that public discussion is a political duty; and that this should be a fundamental principle of the American government."

and 

"Those who won our independence by revolution were not cowards. They did not fear political change. They did not exalt order at the cost of liberty. To courageous, self-reliant men, with confidence in the power of free and fearless reasoning applied through the processes of popular government, no danger flowing from speech can be deemed clear and present, unless the incidence of the evil apprehended is so imminent that it may befall before there is opportunity for full discussion. If there be time to expose through discussion the falsehood and fallacies, to avert the evil by the processes of education, the remedy to be applied is more speech, not enforced silence."

“[M]y family is the largest single contributor of soft money to the national Republican party….I have decided, however, to stop taking offense at the suggestion that we are buying influence. Now, I simply concede the point. ... We expect a return on our investment...”

I was surprised by the announcement today of the selection of Bob Dylan for the Nobel Prize in literature. Sometimes these things seem to come out of nowhere and decades later than you think they would (or, in the case of Obama’s Peace Prize, way earlier than you’d expect). Though Dylan’s still producing his art today, his legacy is firmly entrenched - especially in Western culture, the culture of protest art, and the history of the 60s and 70s. In that light, the award is justly deserved.

I’ve had a personal affinity for Dylan, even though growing up I heard about him more as a joke for his voice than as a respected lyricist or musician. Of course, kids are usually more focused on the now and the new than on what came before. (I realize now that his first four albums are nearer to the year of my birth than any of the current stuff I listened to in high school are to my childrens’. That’s why my 80s and 90s music gets called “oldies” by my blasphemous son.)

There’s always been a place in my heart for 60s folk and protest music, and Dylan’s rock - sometimes more the covers of his music than his versions themselves - built the foundation to the soundtrack of my adolescence. My perennial favorites, Tom Petty and the Heartbreakers, collaborated, toured with, and then joined forces with Dylan at times. His name choice lead me to Dylan Thomas who became one of my favorite poets. And I know a little bit about Duluth where he was born and can infer about Hibbing where he was raised - connections through my family and my past.

You can deride his unique voice for all it’s harshness and lack of polish, but there’s deep emotion there in the music. There’s power. Made all the more powerful by the evocative and often ponderous lyrics. 

And I’ll tell it and think it and speak it and breathe it And reflect it from the mountain so all souls can see it Then I’ll stand on the ocean until I start sinkin’ But I’ll know my song well before I start singin’

“So, my fellow Americans, whatever you may believe, whether you prefer one party or no party, our collective future depends on your willingness to uphold your obligations as a citizen.  To vote.  To speak out.  To stand up for others, especially the weak, especially the vulnerable, knowing that each of us is only here because somebody, somewhere, stood up for us.  To stay active in our public life so it reflects the goodness and decency and optimism that I see in the American people every single day. “ - President Barack Obama, 12 January 2016

https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2016/01/12/remarks-president-barack-obama-%E2%80%93-prepared-delivery-state-union-address

I appreciate this sentiment, and much (but not all) of the State of the Union address tonight. The President identified some regrets, some hopes, and some actionable items for his last year in office. But I like that he focused on optimism for the future, addressing how things can go better, and call us all to work toward that future.

In the immediate aftermath of 9/11, Time published an honest and passionate piece by Lance Morrow that argued the “case for rage and retribution”. “Let the civilized toughen up,” he concluded, “and let the uncivilized take their chances in the game they started.”

I argued against that conclusion fourteen years ago and a portion of my letter to the editor was published in the follow-up issue. I argued that “the seeking of peace and justice in light of violence and intolerance and hate” is the hallmark of the civilized. Where would civilization be if we always met terror and fear with force and destruction? Why must there always be a scheme of retribution? Haven't we moved beyond an eye for an eye? Are we not capable of a more nuanced approach to problem solving?

Here we are fourteen years past, and I find myself compelled again to respond to an act of terror and our collective response to it. The arguments for destruction and hardening of hearts bring back the memories of 2001 and the buildup to war that followed.

Of course we cannot know what would have been had we chosen a different course in the aftermath of 9/11, but I don’t think we’ve significantly improved things with the course that we took. And we should look closely at that path and the options before us now. What actions could we take to not repeat the mistakes of the past?

Thankfully, this time the conversation is joined by many to help add the nuance. For every cry of hate and rage, I’ve been buoyed by the words of solidarity and kindness. For every self-centered plea of “we can’t let that happen here”, I’m challenged by the call to “end the terror over there”. For every privileged American politician saying we have to close our borders, I’m driven by the picture of another Syrian child laying in camps, or in the open, or alone.

America has been called generous, open, and giving. And though that may be an out-sized mythology that whitewashes the crimes of which we’re also guilty, that story - our wide embrace of the poor and huddled and yearning - is a myth worth living up to. My own state played a role of refuge for Europeans fleeing persecution in the 1800s and southeast Asians fleeing retribution in the 1970s and 80s. From these populations we gained great cultural assets and vibrant communities.

Now many - our leaders, or those who would lead us - are saying we can’t afford to be the refuge of others who might be criminals and terrorists.

We can’t afford not to. Every child that cannot escape and grows up in the margins of a war-torn country is one person more likely to become another solider for an army that represents the only stability they might know. Every man or woman turned away from the border of a safe zone gets pushed back into an ideology that will urge them to seek retribution for the refusal.

We can’t afford to turn them away - for them or for ourselves. Because as we push the world away, we become more isolated, more self centered. We become smaller. Our hearts shrink, and our humanity fades. We become another clan peering out of our cave, only looking out for ourselves. We have been and can be so much more.

Jeb Bush has a Google problem.

I heard Jeb Bush had a new logo and I thought I’d take a look at his campaign site. “Jeb Bush” yielded a lot of news and his PAC, but not a campaign site. “jeb bush website” yielded an interesting site at http://www.jebbushforpresident.com/ (nice work, Cj and Charlie!) but not what I was looking for. “jeb bush campaign” still no luck.

The news tells me the Jeb Bush exploratory committee launched 6 months ago and his official campaign launch is today. That’s at least 6 months his digital team should have been massaging his SEM and SEO strategy. Instead, one of his key URLs is owned by someone else of the opposite persuasion on at least one issue.

Cartwheel: Compelling tale of the launch of a digital product from inside a large, slow-moving corporation.

Locked in a perennial struggle with management about howmany hours / weeks / months it’s going to take to get that digital initiative off the ground? Consumed by your legacy corporate culture of “that’s-how-we’ve-always-done-it” and “awaiting-budgetary-approvals”? Perpetually grounded by your seeming inability to break through the c-suite’s opposition to anything they didn’t think of?

Then take a seat and watch the compelling tale of Amber Reimer, Cartwheel Product Manager at Target, and her team’s successful exploits to launch an agile, modern, digital product from inside a large, slow moving corporate culture.

Key takeaways for me:

Reimer’s team’s first battle was to get started in a new way. They succeed in part through a strategic method of building alliances within Target and through outside vendors that helped the higher-ups see that the digital environment required new ways of working. They introduced the Cartwheel app development as a “Product”, not just a project within an existing team (IT or Marketing or Merchandising).

 Organizing as a small, agile team with a singular Product Owner and a few Core Function Owners allowed the team to not only develop the app quickly, but then to pivot and create a Continuous Improvement program for moving forward. Constant iteration, testing, learning and reiteration, the key to agile products, allows Cartwheel to adapt to the constantly changing digital environment and to meet the changing needs of Target’s customers.

Reimer thinks her own ability to persevere as a “change agent”  through a two-year battle of changing the way Target corporate culture worked was key. If you want to change things, you can’t take “no” for an answer. Simple concept. Sometimes hard to follow-through.

The temperature dropped 20 degrees this week. I'm not exactly ready for "sweater weather", but the evocative feel of Fall is in the air and I'm rapidly adjusting. Sure, I'd like another two or three weeks of 70s and 80s, but I can't expect that here in Wisconsin. And while the coolness of spring lingered for too many weeks in my area north of Milwaukee and near Lake Michigan, and the summer days seemed much too few this year, Fall is my season.

Autumn is the one season in which simply walking outside and breathing in never fails to stir nostaglia. The dreaded chore of raking leaves and the exhilaration of jumping in the piles. Walking through orchards as a child and then with my own children. And teenage nights when I fell in love.

My wife and I are high school sweethearts. We'd been friends for years and then senior year she asked me out to Homecoming. I felt foolish at first - I had been attracted to her and had failed to make the first move. But she still liked me, even in my reluctance and uncertainty. And one of our first nights together was at Beloit College's Folk 'n' Blues - a music festival at the small liberal arts school where we could blend in with the college kids and feel a little more grown up, listen to live music, wonder at the smell of the smoke around us, and snuggle in my denim drover in the cool, fall air.