âIn the legal battle with the states, the central issue is whether buying or selling an âevents contractâ on Polymarket, say, one based on whether Novak Djokovic will win his next match, is the same as betting on a site such as DraftKings or FanDuel, or with your neighborhood bookie. The states argue it is. The prediction platforms and the Trump Administration say that the wagers are events contracts, which are subject to the jurisdiction of the C.F.T.C. So far, courts in various parts of the country have issued clashing rulings. The dispute seems certain to go all the way to the Supreme Court, and some independent observers expect the prediction markets to end up with a loss. âWe continue to give the advantage to the states in this fight, as the states have long been in charge of regulating sports gambling,â Jaret Seiberg, an analyst at the investment bank TD Cowen, wrote in a note to clients last week. âLitigation could still take two years or longer to fully play out.â
âIn the meantime, whatâs happening at the C.F.T.C. looks like a classic case of what economists refer to as regulatory capture, where vested interests effectively seize control of a government agency, which then advances their interests. The Biden Administration had expressed concern about how prediction markets were running: in January, 2022, the C.F.T.C. forced Polymarket to pay a $1.4 million penalty for operating an unregistered âcontract market.â Subsequently, the agency, along with the Justice Department, investigated whether Polymarket had violated this settlement by accepting bets from people in the United States. In November, 2024, F.B.I. agents raided the apartment of Polymarketâs young founder, Shayne Coplan. After Trump came to power, the C.F.T.C. reversed course, closing its investigation this past July without bringing any charges. A month later, Polymarket announced that 1789 Capital had made a strategic investment in the company, and Trump, Jr., joined its advisory board.â
germansingergirl
discoholicmusic
gummygunk
turnnoffyourmind
snowghoul
kaledo-art
theartofmadeline
prguitarman
