#fertilisers

Ask me what dominates conversations as we step into 2025, and I’d answer without hesitation: gas. The topic has been dissected in detail by industry experts and news outlets, underscoring its critical importance. But beyond the headlines and analyses, a few lesser-discussed developments stand out, and they’re worth exploring.

The cracks in Iranian urea production started showing in December, as Iran’s gas shortages disrupted urea production. What followed was a ripple effect: Turkey ramped up purchases, creating unexpected openings for Russian suppliers to bypass Indian tenders and secure better deals elsewhere. Egyptian producers weren’t far behind, leveraging the same dynamics to their advantage. 

The end of Russian gas transit through Ukraine. Despite nearly three years of war, Russian gas continued to flow to the EU via Ukraine’s pipelines-a lifeline for many. But that era is now over, leaving all sides grappling with the fallout: 

Russia: Stuck with an oversupply of gas and limited capacity to develop new markets.  

Ukraine: Losing a critical source of transit revenue and facing rising energy costs in neighbouring Moldova and Romania. To complicate matters, the pipeline system could now become a target for Russian missiles. What’s next? A potential sale of Ukraine’s gas infrastructure, including its storage facilities, to an external player. 

The EU: Confronting intensified energy insecurity. European TTF prices have already soared to $15/MMBTu—almost double the price from a year ago.

Amid this upheaval, China emerges as the clear winner. With few alternative buyers for Russian gas, China is positioned to capitalise, potentially securing supplies on highly favourable terms. 

Meanwhile, whispers of a Qatari-Turkish pipeline through Syria were met with a firm denial from Qatar. But I can’t shake the feeling that this story is far from over. Keep an eye on this development—it may resurface in unexpected ways.

Have you noticed how so many organisations seem to have no, ‘institutional memory?’ This is where somebody suggests a course of action and somebody else can say, ‘we have tried that and this is how it failed.’ (Or to be more positive, ‘we tried that and these are the benefits we got at the time.’)So it is with the supermarkets. Back in 2023 energy prices soared, the growers on fixed price…

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