If the market gives it similar PE ratio, its share price will be doubled to RM20 and dividend will also be doubled to RM1.20 per share. If its profit grows consistently year after year, it will pay higher dividends as long as its dividend payout remain the same, and its share price will go up accordingly as long as the market gives it the same PE ratio. So focusing solely on dividend yield might be misleading, especially when the company has some one-off gain and gives one-time special dividend. So I plan to invest in high dividend yield blue chips the boutique s only after accumulating enough money for retirement. Typical textbook teaching tells us that growth stocks tend to give little or no dividend as they need more money to grow. Are you fed up trying to make money online? Short-term market movements are driven by unforeseeable and non-predictable forces. A candlestick is a financial chart style; it used to describe security, derivative and currency price movements.

I have already made clear my problems with using a backward-looking number with a large estimation error (see the standard errors in the table above) as an expectation for the future, but it cuts against the very essence of an equity risk premium as a number that should be dynamic and constantly changing, as new information comes into markets. For almost three decades, I have computed an implied equity risk premium, a forward-looking value computed by looking at what investors are paying for the boutique s today, and the expected cash flows on those stocks. One assessment of corporate default risk is a bond rating, a measure of default risk computed by ratings agencies. You could use the computed averages embedded in the graph as your basis for reasonable, and using that comparison, the market looks closer to under than overpriced, since the ERP on January 1, 2020 was 5.20%, higher than the average for the last 60 years (4.20%) or the last 20 years (4.86%). Even with a 10-year average, the market is only very mildly overpriced. In my last data update post, where I looked at markets over the last decade, I also posted a table that reported historical equity risk premiums, i.e., the premiums earned by stocks over treasury bills and bonds over long periods, ranging from a decade to 92 years.

Diagnosis: Even in its glory days, during the last century, there were extended periods (like the 1990s) when low PE and low PBV unique boutique s underperformed, relative to high PE and high PBV stocks. Once those periods passed, they regained their rightful place at the top of the investing heap. The attempt to explain what happened to value investing in the last decade (and during COVID) is not just about explaining the past, since the rationale you provide will inform whether you will continue to adhere to old time value investing rules, modify them to reflect new realities or abandon them in search of new ones. In April 2020, stock made a low around 970 and in august stock printed a high of 1180 which is a whopping rally in very little time. Prescription: Central banks cannot keep interest rates low in perpetuity, and even they do not have the resource to bail out risk takers forever.

Prescription: Value investing has to adapt to the new economy, with less of a balance sheet focus and more flexibility in how you assess value. For much of the decade, value investors argued that their underperformance was a passing phase, driven by the success of growth and momentum and aided and abetted by the Fed, and that it value investing would come back with a vengeance in a crisis. Diagnosis: Starting with the 2008 crisis and stretching into the last decade, central banks around the world have become much more active players in markets. The results are perverse, at least from a value investing perspective, since the stocks that have done best in this crisis are non-dividend paying, high PE stocks, and the stocks that have done worst during the crisis have been high dividend paying, low PE stock. Low PE and low PBV stocks have lost value during this crisis, just as high PE and PBV stocks have gained in value.

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