It's Bad For Ya'

Leadership debate round up from a guy who was too asleep to watch it and has formed a picture via media the day after. Left slanted friends "Jacindas kicking Bills ass" Right slanted friends "Bills answering way more questions, but talking over Jacinda looks bad to wimminfolk lesbian voters" Everybody "Patrick Gower is a better moderator than Mike Hosking" The Radio "Steven Joyce says Labour has an 11 billion dollar gap in their budget" Political magazine - The spinoff "here's a spreadsheet showing Steven Joyce is a mook and there is no 11 billion dollar gap in Labour's budget" And something about Jacinda saying we'll close Aussie tertiary students out reactivity if Australia closes out kiwis. Did I miss anything?

Unsure if TDB writers are becoming more stupid, or i’m actually shifting to "the right" - Scary Thought Perhaps Bomber simply doesn’t like being called out? Alot of supporters (read that as himself... his writers) are getting hysterical over the “evil media” who were just after a scalp... as if he wouldn’t do the same thing if the shoe were on the other foot. du Plessis-Allan makes several fairly valid points,   Metiria  isn’t a martyr, She did fluff a political gamble, the Greens are going to suffer without her personality and ability in leadership, James Shaw is disliked by some in the Party, Left Wing Bloggers and Green Party Leadership called for the expulsion of two members who left due to frustration with their leader and a party staffer tried to run a dirty-tricks reputation attack on that pair. Where I disagree with her is wither Metiria brought the conversation to the forefront or not. Even if shes inevitably further galvanized peoples opinions the conversation is now out there, and people were generally empathetic to her, as was shown in the Green Party's short growth period directly after her announcement. So while yes some may be drawn to the opinion that Welfare Fraud is bad end of story the numbers shoe that more people were empathetic to the bigger picture, that sometimes welfare fraud is a necessary evil to feed your kids. The gamble was lost when the media discussed her past with Metiria’s mother culminating in her story coming unstuck with further fraudulent behavior - hence the perceived smugness, but you can hardly blame the media for running with a story she created to increase vote count.

I’m not really one for predictions, but for once i’m going to - for post election interests sake I expect Adern and Labour to rise slightly more - At the continued expense of the Greens, unfortunately for them in an age of identity politics James Shaw is nearly as dull as Bill English, he is also outright disliked by some of the crazier in the left and people who generally hate Neo Liberalism for his shared view with Russel Norman that the Greens being Pro (Free) Market isn't necessarily a bad thing. For those reasons Im going to bank on a slight downward trend. I expect that NZFirst has peaked, i’m an eternal pessimist regardless at election time but if this last poll is any indication Labour Voters who were sick and tired enough of the disjointed party over the last two election cycles to protest vote NZF are sniffing around their former digs again (i’ve been thinking more strategically myself) so they may even have a slight decline in the polls to come. National - I’m not so sure, their core voter base generally aren’t shaken by the odd Sketchy text message or 400, the fact their leader has all the personality of a paper cup, or candidates being ‘ex’ tools of the tobacco lobby - however their voter base has grown from said core over time, obviously there are people willing to swing if the conditions are right. And its been a long time since theyve been this close to right.

Greens Drama Level = Nuclear 

More Green Party Drama

Nothing screams cohesion like two MPs resigning in protest. While Labour under Jacinda Adern is likely to go from strength to strength in the next series of polls Metiria Turei's Green party is now the most likely candidate for cannibalization due to her outright refusal to step down. Call it a revelation too far. Having her honestly and frankly state that she had defrauded the taxpayer decades ago worked in the Parties favour to somes amazement , what a great way to open discussion on a key election issue, alot of people have been in the same shoes - that empathy saw the greens rise in the polls. Lying about your residence to commit electoral fraud isn’t something most people can empathize with though and while we can talk about how various other MP’s particularly in the incumbent government are guilty of exactly the same thing - and worse, by not stepping down shes put her party on the platter. A weaker Green party may have an interesting dynamic for the center conservative vote, who may start to view NZFirst as a more viable option if they were to become the largest coalition partner with more say over a weaker Neo Lib Labour (as opposed to a Stronger Neo Lib National) and an easily ignored Green Party fed the odd bit of legislation ala the Maori Party.

2. SH58 from Pauatahanui to Upper Hutt: 

More RNZAF Skyhawk resource imagery for my 1/72 project, including several larger scale models made by other hobbiests. focus on the Lizard Pattern Cammo used in the 80s/90s

RNZAF A4K Skyhawks - current 1/72 build, using Euro 1 Lizard Pattern Camo

Russian tactics for going head to head with Stealth technology, essentially dodge the first strike using a mixture of exceptional maneuverability and advances in cross section reducing paint (they currently claim their doped aircraft show up the size of a tennis ball, which if true is impressive) , then hitting hard and fast as the approach shortens. Its highly likely we will never get to see theory in action but it currently makes for great viewing at air shows around the world

So I've been following via my blog to cut down on boring everybody, but I need to say out loud, congrats and good luck Jacinda Ardern - I've stated that I personally think 6 weeks out of an election is a bit of a steep call for any politician (I actually phrased it as suicide for the Party and any MP willing to take it on board) but Labour really seemed damned either way - please feel free to prove me wrong. I won't personally be voting for Rob Mcaan in the Otaki electorate this year as I don't really agree with anything he does or stands for... in fact for the first time ever I've actually considered voting for the National candidate Nathan Guy, but there may be space for me to at least consider strategically party voting for Labour for the first time in just about a decade. Even if she doesn't pull off this election there is a real chance to rebuild the party come the next election Ala Helen Clarks tenor as leader - which started off with an election loss followed by dissent in the ranks, People can (and do at great contrast) say what they like about Helen Clark but no-one can deny she showed getting everybody on the same page/in line is key post election, win or lose.

Jacinda is in a shitty position, damned if she does, damned if she doesn't, unfortunately having her face on party hoardings has tarred her with Andrew Little’s Brush. 6 weeks out to an election is a suicidal time to change leader, for both the incoming politician (in this case Adrern) and the Party itself, what better way to show a lack of basic organisation than a last minute reshuffle? Its insane that the Labour Party hasn’t dealt with their waning popularity (Politics is more or less just a popularity contest after all) yet