nick paul defender

Some highlights in case it’s paywalled:

This month, The Athletic contacted multiple sources with knowledge of how the NHL’s statistics system works and what may have changed. Historically, the league has relied upon a small group of off-ice officials at each arena — watching the action from a considerable distance away, in the press box — to record these metrics as games unfold, but that process has evolved in recent years.

With the puck and players now tracked using chips that provide information available in real time, the NHL is deploying that data — as well as increased video resources and third-party auditors — to refine its stat-gathering processes.

As a result, the NHL is scrutinizing shots on goal more than ever. If the puck’s trajectory, based on the tracking data, is deemed to be heading wide of the posts — or in the case of Cooley’s windmill glove save, above the crossbar — it is not counted as a shot on goal, or a save.

(Emphasis mine)

So it has nothing to do with pucks shot towards the net. It’s trajectory.

The NHL’s new tracking technology, however, is accurate down to an inch or two from the goal, meaning it can tell the stat trackers whether a puck that hits a goaltender was headed wide, for the post or into the net.

That’s some sort of fuckery, isn’t it? If a puck shot through traffic and deflected to the net or the goalie gloves it from midair, it doesn’t count as an official shot on goal if the tracked trajectory determines it would have missed otherwise.

Even more interesting (emphasis mine again)

In the time frame when shots have fallen off, missed shots have jumped more than 20 percent, from 11.4 misses per 60 in 2022-23 to a historic high of 14.4 per 60 this season.

So official SOGs have decreased which has also decreased goaltender save percentages but missed shots have increased. But missed shots are not an official tracked stat according to the box score.

I checked the stats from the Montreal-Tampa game 7 because such a big deal was made about the Habs only registering 9 SOG to Tampa’s 29 yet managing to win. Screenshots from ESPN and the NHL website.

Missed shots aren’t listed. Blocked shots are but for some reason missed aren’t.

But it all comes down to one thing:

This drop in shots on goal has affected a lot of other important league statistics, most notably save percentages for goalies, shooting percentages for players and teams, and expected goals and scoring chance models on popular sites such as MoneyPuck and Natural Stat Trick.

Sports betting, my beloathed!

Shots on goal are adjusted on the fly during the game and even after because shots on goal are one of the stats people can bet on. And gambling payouts matter more than actual statistics that reflect what’s happening on the ice. Who cares how many times a team shoots the puck towards the net? What matters is how much BetMGM and FanDuel and Bet360 profit.