Socal View

So what about the future of President Trump’s influence in the Republican Party and America  after Jan 20 and is this tied to the survival of the Qanon conspiracy? There is evidence of symbiosis between Trump’s wing of the Republican Party and QAnon. I have written before about perspectivism and it seems that is what Trump and Qanon have in common. Following the election Trump promoted misinformation about election results and misinformation is fuel for the QAnon conspiracy. What is at stake for the Republican Party and it’s future impact on the USA is whether it becomes more embroiled in misinformation and fantasy allowing the influence of QAnon supporters to continue and or grow or whether there is a reaffirmation of the importance of rational thought and discussion based on rigorous legal academic journalistic and scientific standards.

President Trump yesterday expressed his admiration via twitter for the group of supporters including veterans, business owners and at least one lawyer who broke into the Capitol building and caused the suspension of the electoral college count as well as members of Congress to flee in terror. The President described his rampaging supporters as “Great Patriots” despite criminal damage caused within the Capitol in addition to the damage to the reputation of the USA as one of the world’s greatest if not greatest democracy. There has been widely shared video of Capitol police allowing protesters to advance towards building entrances and even going as far to share selfies with a rioter. After ripping away a sign with Nancy Pelosi’s sign a rioter holds up the trophy standing next to man in a t-shirt emblazoned with the word ‘Auschwitz’. Another rioter is photographed displaying the 6MWE insignia. A veteran Ashli Babbitt who was part of the Capitol invasion was killed by VP Pence’s security detail. Prior the Save America rally that Trump headlined on the 6th Trump had been promoting conspiracy theories about an African American poll worker and her daughter in Georgia as well as false information about the Dominion voting machines. Anyone who joined in with the Capitol riot could legitimately argue that they were following instructions from the head of state and Commander in Chief to “stop the steal”. Despite the mayhem, death and vandalism 147 Republicans voted to object to legally certified election results (8 senators and 139 representatives with prominent objectors being Ted Cruz and Josh Hawley. Today Trump said he was “outraged by the violence lawlessness and mayhem” and that the “demonstrators who infiltrated the Capitol have defiled the seat of American democracy” but also said “emotions were high” and  “to all of my wonderful supporters I know you are disappointed but our journey is only just beginning”. It seemed that having threatened with a 25th amendment removal he was criticizing the supporters that he had encouraged the day before whilst still finishing with with words of support at the end of his broadcast. Where now for the GOP as the final days of the Trump administration ebb? Clearly the 147 GOP objectors were sending a clear signal of loyalty to their leader despite the chaos and scandal associated with his tenure and there seems little doubt that unless there is a GOP usurper he will be ready to run again in 2024. Democrats should start preparing to defeat Trump again now in order to avoid further damage to the ‘City on the Hill’, the “Beacon of Light’ that is the America people admire and wish to emulate throughout the world.

Those who have spent a holiday evening reveling in the new Wonder Woman 1984 movie might be forgiven for thinking that Max Lord is reminiscent on Trump the 80s property developer. Mr Lord finds that he can change the world around him and even command loyalty by merely wishing having derived special powers from the “Dreamstone”. Where does the idea of being able to use willpower to influence events come from? The German philosopher Nietzsche (1844-1900) wrote about a state in which  “One enriches everything out of one's own fullness: whatever one sees, whatever wills is seen swelled, taut, strong, overloaded with strength. A man in this state transforms things until they mirror his power—until they are reflections of his perfection. This having to transform into perfection is—art.” Now on Jan 6th there will be a formal count of electoral votes presided over by VP Pence. Most of the world let alone the US population is certain that Joe Biden will be the US President on Jan 20th. But what if you believed in the perspectivism of Nietzsche and wanted to remain US president despite having lost a democratic election by over 7 million votes? You might think that by believing in your victory and repeatedly publicly proclaiming that belief you could change political events in your favor. Much has been written of the influence of Norman Vincent Peale on the young Donald but is it possible some of Nietzsche’s ideas have crept in to his outlook albeit indirectly? Handily a lawsuit has been filed  by Rep. Louie Gohmert which argues that VP Pence has discretion afforded by an 1887 law to determine whether state electors are valid. The problem for Gohmert and Trump is that VP Pence does not appear to want to use his will to overturn the election result and his lawyers have asked the judge to reject the lawsuit. Nietzsche described a master morality in which being good was defined by wealth, strength, health and power of a ruling class. Exceptional people, thought Nietzsche, should follow their inner law. It seems that VP Pence is reluctant to act in a way which embraces this ideology and overturn 130 years of legal convention unlike President Trump. Still, as previously noted the President can count on the support of Sen Hawley on Jan 6th. Constitutional lawyers seem agreed that it is extremely unlikely that the challenge to the Electoral College vote will succeed on Jan 6th but it seems an ideology of Nietzschean exceptionalism is thriving in a section of the Republican Party at the start of 2021.

You might be forgiven for assuming the US Presidential election is over and awaiting Joe Biden and Kamala Harris to be taking over the reigns on January 20, 2021 following a clear result separated by over 6 million votes and 74 electoral votes.  Numerous cases regarding the election brought to court by the Trump legal team have been denied or dismissed: for example on November 4th a Michigan judge refused to halt the vote count as requested by a lawsuit. and on November 13 a judge denied all five of the Philadelphia lawsuits which prevented over 8000 absentee or mail-in ballots being dismissed. On December 11 the Supreme Court dismissed a case brought by Texas AG Ken Paxton seeking to invalidate election results in the swing states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia and Wisconsin and backed by an amicus brief signed by 126 House Republicans. One Republican Senator is still convinced he can turn the political tide on Jan 6th next year by objecting to the electoral vote being certified which would trigger  debates and votes in both houses: Josh Hawley. Republican Senators will have to decide whether to support Trump or uphold the US electoral process. President Trump is clearly excited about Jan 6 tweeting: “ JANUARY SIXTH, SEE YOU IN DC!”. OK so we know how this ends, but still an extraordinary spectacle of senior GOP politicians attempting to overturn the results of a democratic election in the USA looks increasingly likely.

How close has the US come to  martial law followed by a rerun of the 2020 Presidential Election run by the US military? Newly pardoned General Flynn has wasted little time since being freed reentering murky waters with his call for Trump to do just that. In fact the New York Times reported that witnesses of a recent meeting involving the President heard this proposal being discussed along the the appointment of Flynn’s attorney as a a special counsel to investigate voting fraud overlooking her support of baseless conspiracy theories about widespread fraud in the recent election. In addition to that Scott O’Grady has been nominated as  assistant secretary of defence for international security affairs at the Pentagon. Scott O’Grady has retweeted a tweet claiming that Hilary Clinton and George Soros conspired to interfere with the election  and has also retweeted that Trump won in California despite losing by 5 million votes. What is reassuring is that America’s most senior General Milley Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff  said in written comments to Congress in August: “I believe deeply in the principle that the US military should be apolitical. General Milley has also said he should not have been at the photo op in front of St John’s Episcopal church an event which attracted criticism because of the way in which protestors were cleared from the area in advance. Anyone who cares about the integrity of the democratic process and rule of law in the US should applaud General Milley’s recent statements. and be grateful that someone of his seniority stood their ground  in the midst of a storm of false information and conspiracy theories.

So the strange drama of James Comey plays out.Great debate currently about whether President Trump was right to fire Comey. Trump was tweeting today that he he could retaliate if Comey leaked:  “James Comey better hope there are no ‘tapes’ of our conversations before he starts leaking to the press!”. Clearly a lot of Clinton supporters were furious about Comey’s late intervention in the Presidential election campaign.Clinton has now said that she could have won the election but for that intervention. This begs the question why didn’t Obama fire Comey?It might have seemed to have been seen to be a  grossly biased move at that time but Trump does not seem to have been deterred by appearing biased in the context of an ongoing investigation into links between Moscow and the Trump campaign.What happens next?Will Comey try to continue to confront the president even though he no longer holds his position as FBI head?Will the FBI investigation now be derailed or at least lose some of it’s teeth.Will the next FBI head be more compliant.The acting head McCabe seemed to be standing with his predecessor. Finally wasn’t it bizarre that Comey saw news of his dismissal on a screen whilst addressing FBI employees in LA; irony that the most powerful man in the world of espionage didn’t know about this event before the public.

Flash crash overnight.This morning £ strides at 1.24 against $ and 1.121 against €. FTSE is actually strong at 7030 but there has to be some concern about impact of currency devaluation on living costs for UK citizens.

Visiting the largest tree on earth General Sherman with Etana Jacobson

Really shocking that clean water and sanitation still lacking despite all relief work after volcanic disaster of 2010.A death toll of over 300 from hurricane Matthew is unacceptably high in the 21st century. 

Very sad event following so soon after the Paris attack of November 2015. So far the evidence about the attacker Mohamed Bouhiel seems to indicate that he  was not particularly religious which does not fit with the stereotype of a radical Islamist.It would appear that the attacker was able to adopt the military aspects of the Isis ideology whilst living a “western” lifestyle.Presumably any indoctrination occurred online. The numbers of French and UK nationals joining Isis are worrying;FT quoted government figures are 1700 French nationals and 800 British. This shows the importance of combating Isis propaganda online and also the importance of developing a culture where Muslims feel accepted and respected to the point where an attack like the one in Nice would seem to be an attack on a society that they identify with. The UK is showing signs of being effective in terms of integration and the recent election of Sadiq Khan is a visible sign of a society in which Muslims feel accepted respected and have a sense of ownership in terms of their country. Of course the UK suffered from the 2005 bus bombings so the UK has its own problems in relation to muslim integration. There was also of course the murder of Lee Rigby in 2013.There is of course the tension between foreign policy and opinions within Islamic communities. Air strikes which maybe intense to benefit muslim communities in Iraq and Syria in the long term are often more immediately perceived as taking muslim lives. Clearly these policies need to be discussed in a way that acknowledges views within muslim communities.Work needs to be done in terms of public education the media and politics to create a more cohesive society.It should also be added that the role of intelligence services is vital;this work needs to be sophisticated and as specific as possible as a blunt approach which affects good citizens will be counterproductive.

Ibiza, flippers at the  ready