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Jedi: Fallen Order was released on November 15, 2019. Jedi: Survivor was released April 28, 2023. That’s three years, five months, and nine days between the two games. (I’m only getting that specific because I can so I might as well!)

If Wikipedia is to be believed, production for Jedi: Survivor began in late 2019. It also says the following about the game’s release:

“The development of a sequel to Star Wars Jedi: Fallen Order was announced in January 2022. The game's title of Star Wars Jedi: Survivor was announced […] in May 2022 alongside the debut of a CGI teaser trailer at Star Wars Celebration.”

Now, I don’t think anyone was expecting to hear anything about the third game at Celebration Japan a few weeks ago. It’s still too soon. That first teaser trailer for Survivor was specifically released on May 27, 2022. Two years, six months, and twelve days after Fallen Order.

If we’re to take that math literally, then theoretically we could expect a teaser trailer for the third game around November 9, 2025. Of course, to assume that development of the third game would follow the exact same timeline of the second game would be extremely presumptuous. Far too many factors go into development to make such assumptions.

On the one hand, like so much else, the production of Jedi: Survivor would’ve been heavily impacted by the pandemic, and the director has stated as such. On the other hand, as game technology advances, developers work to make games more immersive. More detailed, complicated games require more time to develop, especially if you don’t want exceptionally buggy releases like Fallen Order and especially Survivor had. (This coming from someone who played Survivor on PC!)

On the topic of a sequel to Jedi: Survivor, Wikipedia says the following:

“[Stig] Asmussen left EA to form his own company in 2023, but a spokesperson from EA stated that "[v]eteran Respawn leaders will be stepping up to guide the team as they continue their work on Star Wars Jedi: Survivor." He told interviewers at the time that it was his intention to make the Star Wars Jedi series a trilogy, with the possible third game being built using Unreal Engine 5. In September 2023, [Cameron] Monaghan stated that the team was "in the process of [making a third game] right now". At a September 2024 presentation to investors, EA president Laura Miele announced that a third game was in production, confirming it would be the final game in the series.”

Now I don’t know much about video game development, but I have to assume with director Stig Asmussen stepping down there would’ve been a little bit of a leadership shakeup at Respawn around Jedi 3. Not enough that I think it would cause a really significant delay, especially since it seems like much of the same team is still in place, but it’s possible it coulda taken them a little bit longer to get their feet on the ground getting started.

From my own layman’s perspective, it seems like there are a lot of factors that would cause the third game to take longer than the second, for which production was of course around three and a half years. However, the effects of the pandemic on Survivor’s production cannot be overlooked. Cameron Monaghan’s statement that the team was “in the process” for the third game in September 2023 doesn’t have to mean that they were doing motion capture at that time; in fact, I’d be surprised if they were, given that was less than six months after Survivor was released. However, even if they are doing motion capture NOW, one has to assume it’s probably on a faster timeline than Survivor. I don’t know exactly when they filmed for Survivor, but you’d have to assume it couldn’t have been much earlier than late 2021, maybe even early 2022. And motion capture being just one part of game development, likely not even the biggest part, there’s a lot that comes before and probably even more that comes after. The devs work on these games all the way through the day they come out (even AFTER to an extent).

The point I mean to make is that we would likely have gotten Survivor sooner if it were not for the pandemic, which I don’t think anyone would disagree with. How much sooner? Hard to say. And would the amount of delay for the second game caused by the pandemic be comparable to the natural amount of delay we might expect to see for a more technologically advanced sequel? We can only guess.

There are undoubtedly many more factors to consider that I don’t know about. I’m just one random nerd on the internet with too much time on my hands who has no inside information or any understanding of game development beyond the most basic of levels.

I think the only thing we can safely assume at this point is that Jedi 3 is unlikely to take less time than Survivor did, or at least not much less, or we would’ve heard at least something about it at Celebration Japan.

CONCLUSION:

All that being said, if we assumed we’d have that exact same amount of time between the games, then we’d expect the third game to be released sometime around October 6, 2026. However, in the interest of marketing the game as part of a celebration for Star Wars’ 50th anniversary, I think early 2027 might be more likely.