Bolivian authorities took control of the four airports in Bolivia on 31 March after workers with the Lloyd Aereo Boliviano (LAB) airline caused disruptions at the airport in Cochabamba Jorge Wilstermann International yesterday. Protesters blocked roads, staged sit-ins on the slopes, and occupied the offices of LAB. Witnesses said the Bolivian national police used teargas and batons to regain control of the airport. LAB protests began in February when workers organized a system shutdown. The new administration of President Evo Morales responded by promising to intervene to help the airline pay waving wages and salaries could not cover. With that promise, the demonstrators returned to work. But in early March, with the promise unfulfilled, they began to lose faith. In mid-March, LAB workers staged a hunger strike to draw attention to the fact that LAB had not paid salaries for months. A large group from the Cochabamba airport joined the strike. This time, Morales's government not to intervene, saying the situation was out of his hands. Soon after, more joined the strike in Cochabamba, forcing the hand of Morales, which resulted in tear gas and beatings. Many of those still gathered in Cochabamba have begun to wonder why the Morales government has not intervened aggressively to protect some 9,000 Bolivian dependent LAB for the nationalization of the airline and ensure the wages and salaries of their employees. The protest is the first major internal challenge to Morales, which has so far managed to keep a large fan base to speak from both sides of his mouth. Elected with more than 50 percent of the vote and was inaugurated in late January, Morales has an unprecedented mandate. But that mandate is strong pressure to maintain a broad constituent base happy. Well past halfway through his first 100 days, Morales has filled his most radical doubt, is facing legal conflicts with international oil companies, and has done little to convince international investors that Bolivia has become to stability and prosperity - a considerable task considering Morales is in the most lucrative source of natural gas region. Three factors determine the future of Bolivia: the nationalization of energy assets, the relationship between Bolivia and the U.S., and Morales ability to maintain its broad constituency happy. Oscillating Relations Good relations with the U.S. are essential for investor confidence in energy and other sectors of the Bolivian economy. If Morales appears to be very compatible with the U.S., which anger the left flank of his support base. The left prefers Morales work more closely with Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez - a relationship that Morales should be handled carefully if you want to keep U.S. politicians and investors suspect the worst. On the surface, many analysts speculate that Bolivia will fall into the sphere of influence of Venezuela. In this scenario, Chávez pay the bills and dictate policies in line with regional plans for socialism in the 21st century. Morales may have the temptation of easy money, taking a route that would take him out of Washington. Morales opening a dialogue with the U.S. is a sign that will not easily be swept into the fold Chávez. During a press conference in Chile on March 10, Morales told reporters he was "always open to dialogue." ". We speak with President [George W.] Bush, but we can also talk with [Cuban leader] Fidel Castro - that is our culture of dialogue are not afraid to talk, let's keep talking, "Morales said. These statements show that the careful balance of Bolivia's new president must maintain to keep their broad base of support and content of users and committed to the future of Bolivia. However, a recent announcement provides evidence that Morales is ready to strike and take a position of strength that is not in the best interest of his administration. When a homemade bomb exploded in a hotel in La Paz, killing two people on March 21, Morales responded by saying: "There is a battle against terrorism and the United States government is sending Americans to do terrorism in Bolivia. " On 23 March, the U.S. embassy in La Paz issued a statement expressing its concern at the comments. Morales clarified his position on April 1 after dinner with U.S. Ambassador in Bolivia, David Greenlee, claiming that "everything has been clarified." However, such instinctive reactions indicate a lack of pragmatism that could harm the administration of Morales in the future. Powder keg issues Two of the most talked Morales repeated campaign promises all-encompassing Constituent Assembly and a growing awareness that coca is a leaf, not a drug. Both are powder kegs, because if Morales does not do what it promised, it will face the power of the Bolivian protesters have a solid track record of removing presidents. Morales has pushed hard for the Constituent Assembly a success. It has also been open to dialogue and engagement with the U.S. and so-called drug war underway in Bolivia. The bill to legalize the new CA passed by the Bolivian Congress in record time, suggesting that many members of Congress still remember that Morales was elected with nearly 52 percent of the vote. CA negotiations at the Congress of Bolivia could have been much more difficult than they were. Was an important test for the young administration of Morales. The CA process is now the voter registration, a process that derailed the CA in the past. March 21, Morales announced the launch of National Plan of Bolivia identity, a U.S. $ project of 8 million poor Bolivians register to vote to participate in the vote of electors to represent them in the Constituent Assembly, as well as future elections. Venezuelan experience will receive technical and financial support to help register at least one million Bolivians. The same day, Morales announced the launch of a literacy program across the country, making good on another campaign promise. He will receive help from Cuba and Venezuela to implement this new program throughout the country. At the conclusion of his press conference with reporters in Chile, Morales said that the issue of drugs was a distant second to the trade and economic ties between Bolivia and the U.S.. However, its position that coca is a leaf, not a drug remains strong. "We need a real and effective fight against drug trafficking," Morales said in Chile. "We need a alliance a pact with the U.S. government [...] The fight against drug trafficking can not be a pretext to control or simply to regain political power or control of our governments This must stop. ". Morales has allowed U.S. Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA) to continue operations in Bolivia. He has also shown its willingness to discuss the limits on legal coca production established by previous administrations. Morales knows that the U.S. are able to decertify Bolivia for failing to support policies backed drug eradication. Decertification leads to a severe reduction in annual funding for development. While U.S. representatives cares for the treatment of Morales and Bolivia with due respect, should not be soft, but extended negotiations between the two countries on issues concerning the so-called war against drugs. Morales will travel to Chile to meet with U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, and the phone call he received from President George W. Bush are good signs that the lines of communication are open, both publicly and privately. In Chile, Morales characterized his meeting with Rice as "historic and very important." Following this meeting, a new paradigm for relations between the U.S. and Bolivia must now be formed. Morales will remain tight in its position of coca, but no farther from a relationship that needs to ensure long-term success of their country. Energy Negotiations International companies have to negotiate with the Bolivian government because the contracts currently in force are not in tune with the new legislation enshrines in law the latter country's hydrocarbons. Morales has the mandate to play hard ball with international energy companies, but will negotiate with each of them by a company, not the feed force as a group. He needs as much as you need to Bolivia. There are about 26 international energy companies that have contracts in Bolivia, so there are many people to talk. However, this approach is more likely long commitment and stability provide permanent instead of force oil companies to leave Bolivia all together. Spanish-owned Repsol YPF and the Brazilian-owned Petrobras - major investors in Bolivia - are two energy companies Morales be careful to keep his side. The revenue generated by oil exports to Brazil and Argentina accounted for about 38 percent of total export earnings in 2004. The loss of companies such as Petrobras and Repsol YPF would be detrimental to the economy of Bolivia. In addition, Morales knows he needs foreign investment to maintain and improve the infrastructure of the country's gas export. The new pumping stations, pipeline networks and the development of other gas-based products are essential to exploit the country's energy assets. At current levels of production and export, Bolivia has 70 years of natural gas reserves, according to Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA). CERA research reveals that at year-end 2004, proven gas reserves of Bolivia was at 26.7 trillion cubic feet (TCF) proven and probable reserves increase that number to 48.7 TCF. Bolivia exported 735 million cubic feet (MMCF) per day to Brazil and 77 MMcf per day to Argentina in 2004. In 2006, Bolivia is expected to export about 1,200 MMCF per day in Brazil, possibly up to 1,350 MMcf per day in 2008 if the current pipeline networks are expanded. The two companies in Brazil and Argentina know that Bolivia is the best source of natural gas in the region. And the Bolivian government knows that the needs of these companies to maintain and increase exports of gas. Morales knows increased revenue from gas exports is your best bet to maintain a stable economy and Bolivia have a little extra money to pass social programs needed to keep their constituents happy. Bolivia remains the top provider of natural gas region, despite Chavez's attempts to muscle its way into the market with plans for a natural gas pipeline stretching from Venezuela to Argentina through Brazil. the pipeline economics dictate that the shorter the pipe, the better. Bolivia is geographically better positioned than Venezuela to feed the Southern Cone markets - Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay - with natural gas. Promise for the future Morales is on the line. He has many difficult decisions ahead for the rest of his first 100 days as well as the rest of his administration. Chavez represents an easy road, a warm hug. The promise of U.S. financial support and the embrace of the international investment community is a much more difficult to walk. Two traditional chains may soon be removed from future of Bolivia: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and access to the Pacific. Bolivia is not likely to renew his contract with the IMF when it expires this year. Morales looks like the president who finally released Bolivia to bow to the wishes of the IMF's economic policies. It is a perception that is sure to increase his approval ratings at a time beyond the first 100 days. With all its IMF debt relief, there will be more money to service the debts of others, helping to maintain economic stability. Morales and Chile's President Michelle Bachelet, is rumored to have been talking about Bolivia's access to the Pacific for over a year. The issue resurfaced when Morales was in Chile in early March. Bolivia's access to the Pacific is a blessing that would give a shot in the arm for Bolivian exports. While there is still a long way to go in terms of negotiations and political goodwill, the fact that Bolivia and Chile are talking to each other at the highest level without popular protest is a good sign. However, many hours of negotiation and persuasion must take place before Chile and Bolivia agree on Bolivia's access to the Pacific. Meanwhile, Morales has a growing crowd of supporters that after the recent plane incident LAB, are willing to break ranks. An activist in the Cochabamba airport, summed up the feelings of the protesters said Jim Shultz, director of the Center based in Cochabamba for Democracy, that "if the Morales government is not willing to take bold action to save a national airline is even more sure will not face foreign oil companies. " Morales knows that protesters in Bolivia are more than just a headache. Bolivia's current president, helped organize and implement the protests that culminated in the withdrawal of two presidents of Bolivia, Carlos Mesa and Gonzalo Sanchez de Lozada. If you continue making decisions that upset the Indians, students, miners and truck drivers who may witness the same fate as his predecessors, he helped overthrow.
