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i may SOMETIMES be rude, depressed and easy to piss off//

look, my best guess is that it's this conversation.

from this, [i suppose you could interpret it differently, but] i think the implication is that this is the first time they're talking about it, and that it's happening fairly soon after the Shack incident.

if this is the first time they've talked about it, and Lily already knows about his theory regarding Lupin, then he must have suspected him long before that.

meanwhile Lupin in PoA: just... sleepin.

the kids are standing there wondering whether they should wake him up because they've brought food and he looks like someone who could really do with a meal.

“I suppose he is asleep?” ... “I mean — he hasn’t died, has he?”

they literally weren't sure whether he'd dropped dead or not.

and Hermione's just like,

let's start with Wendelin the Weird.

it's essentially a fragment of the lore, a passage taken straight from a history textbook. on the one hand, yes, it's a direct piece of world-building.

on the other hand, what do we actually see? from the Muggles' point of view, it looked as though they were executing the guilty. but the point is that if it really was a witch, she wouldn't burn. the people who actually suffered were those who had no magical abilities at all.

so right from the beginning we get this theme of innocent people being punished, while those who are actually responsible walk away unscathed.

and, at the same time, the idea that reality is nothing like what it seems at first glance.

then there's Aunt Marge.

Aunt Marge breeds bulldogs. she breeds dogs. she raises these beasts that are openly hostile towards Harry, that pose a danger to him, that Harry is afraid of because she used to set them on him... just because she could.

much later, in Order of the Phoenix, Severus even asks about one of those dogs, but that's beside the point.

what's much more interesting is the way she talks about breeding. she argues that bad traits are inherited. that if the bitch is bad, then her litter will be just the same.

doesn't that remind you of another dog?

one who comes from a family with, let's say, highly questionable beliefs, values and preferences. one whose guilt everyone accepted because it wasn't difficult to believe.

after all, the apple doesn't fall far from the tree.

in the end, it's hard to say how much of Sirius's story was nature versus nurture, based on everything we know about him. and yet.

naturally, she also brings Harry's parents back into the narrative, something that didn't really happen in Chamber of Secrets. and, in effect, all of this ties into Harry's eventual reunion with his parents' friends.

and then there's the fact that this is the first and only time Harry runs away from home.

at roughly the same time, though a little earlier, someone else escapes from his own prison. someone who had also run away from home during his school years. and it is in this very book that the two of them are reunited.

after running away, Harry thinks that, at this point, it doesn't really matter anymore. he's already broken the law, he's almost certainly become a criminal, and now he'll have to stay on the run, live like a homeless person, and never return to Hogwarts.

because that's essentially the only possible way to get genuinely black eyes.

and, given the way iris colour is formed, black eyes with a cool undertone are fundamentally impossible.

any eye colour other than brown, whether grey, blue, or green, is produced largely from Rayleigh/Tyndall scattering within the structure of the iris fibres and the amount and distribution of melanin.

and when the concentration of melanin is high, the eyes become either a rich brown or almost black.

"Snape brought it on himself because he went there"...

i don't really buy it. not really.

i mean, if you look at it from Snape's point of view, and we don't assume that he believes Sirius Black is capable of murder, then...

he's almost certainly convinced it's a trap. fine, it's a trap. hardly the first time.

he is also almost completely convinced that Lupin is a werewolf, and he knows Lupin is somewhere in there. but he doesn't think Sirius is capable of killing him.

and considering they go there themselves, that means Lupin clearly doesn't attack them.

Snape doesn't know they're Animagi, so he has no idea that's the reason Lupin doesn't hurt them. therefore, as far as he's concerned, either Lupin somehow keeps his senses, or something else is going on, or perhaps he can't get out of there, or something along those lines.

either way, if Lupin really is a werewolf, then Snape will know about it, which means Snape would have something to hold over them.

if it's some kind of prank, then it's a prank in the middle of the night, in a place where they're not supposed to be, and it's serious enough that it might actually end up getting them into trouble.

i just don't think he believed he was walking to certain death. i don't think that was how he imagined the situation at all.

besides, it's actually quite similar to what happened in the first year [1991], when Malfoy arranged a duel but really just set Filch on him instead.

considering Filch, for one thing, i don't think Severus would have expected the Marauders to sic Filch on him, because they themselves were already in Filch's bad books, and, generally speaking, that was never really their style. if anything, that was much more Snape's style.

secondly, if he was convinced Lupin was a werewolf, then Filch turning up might actually have worked in his favour.

but most likely, he was simply expecting some sort of trap. and in that case, even if he ended up at a serious disadvantage, simply making enough noise to draw attention to the fact that the golden Gryffindors were tormenting him in the middle of the night could well have been enough.

so i can't really say he was acting especially foolishly in that situation, or anything like that. to be honest, he acted pretty much the way Harry would have.