surely something will be here eventually

The Shadow Crystals are far more than mere pieces of glass. In actuality, they contain a certain power.

You could call this the power of "will"

.... no, perhaps "will" isn't right. The power they contain is...

The power of lost dreams.

When a strong attachment is formed... when a dream is gripped tightly... and then broken off. These... are the shards that remain.

Part 1: In which I attempt to catalogue where each Shadow Crystal came from.

We will begin with the two most obvious ones:

The dreams of "Nobody" and the unnamed Mad Roommate, who I will refer to as Mettaton and Maddie just to make sure you understand (and understand that I understand.)

Each of their ideal bodies. But Mettaton's exists only as an artpiece on whatever art program Swatch is, and the Mew Mew doll is inarticulate. Neither of them are suitable for living in.

Based on some dialogue from Swatch, it appears Mettaton deleted the drawing of his body, and we know he has become a recluse, only slightly drawn out of his shell by Tenna (if Tenna is even gifted to him). Similarly, while Maddie would regularly possess the Mew Mew doll, it isn't hers and she couldn't live in it like she wants.

But in the Dark World, she can, which is why she doesn't use the Shadow Crystal, even though her body has it with her. The dream is fulfilled, after all: in the Dark World, the Pink Body is alive, and motive, which means that the Pink Ghost's dream came true, even after it was broken.

Next up is a slightly less obvious dreamer:

I believe that the Shadow Crystal in Chapter 4, the one held by Gerson, was created by Father Alvin's lost dream. The chapter emphasizes how Alvin is afraid to use his own writing, despite wanting to, and throughout the chapter, Gerson, his father (deceased) is motivated to try and help Alvin recover his confidence, what with the letter he has Susie transcribe for him.

I like this explanation because it still provides a connection between the dreamer, and the Shadow Crystal holder that serves as the chapter's Secret Boss. It also explains why Gerson never uses his Shadow Crystal: given that he seems to feel responsible for his son's lost dream, and is taking pains to rectify it, he wouldn't be about to take advantage of it. Even if he doesn't know that's what it is, from a writing perspective, Fox wouldn't make a hypocrite out of Gerson for no reason.

That leaves us with one... unusual case.

I think there's a compelling case to be made that the Shadow Crystal collected from the Roaring Knight in Chapter 3 comes from Susie herself. In this case, created from the lost dream of defeating the Knight right here and now and preventing any more harm.

In the normal course of the fight, Susie would have no hope, no time to even trick herself into thinking this is possible. But if the Knight shows a moment of weakness, and she even manages to clash against its Black Knife, breaking off a piece... then she might believe they have what it takes. And equally, be devastated when it beats them all down.

A lot of Susie's dialogue in the fight also reflects growing confidence in the Fun Gang's victory, which I think adds credence to this idea. But it is the one I am least confident in.

That is, the one I have least confidence in while still having an actual candidate.

Part 2: Oh God there's a clown.

Who.

I mean.

Where'd it come from?

...Well, let's first catalogue some general trends, ranked by how confident I am that each represents an actual pattern.

1: Shadow Crystals persist, even if the lost dream that formed them is no longer lost.

A minor point, but, seeing as Chapter 4's Shadow Crystal doesn't disappear even when Alvin elects to pick the pen back up, and the Pink Body is still able to give Kris Chapter 5's Shadow Crystal even after Maddie's dream has been realized, this appears to be true, if not, I think, that important.

2: Shadow Crystals form from the dreams of Lightners, specifically.

This might be obvious, but I'll state it for the record anyway to make it clear. The only ambiguous point is Chapter 3, although there are very few candidates (other than Susie) who could have created it. The next-likeliest would be the Knight, and in that case toppling this point would additionally require that the Knight doesn't "count" as a Lightner.

3: Shadow Crystals appear in the Dark World alongside objects sentimentally tied to the dream that created them.

To merely state that Shadow Crystals appear in the Dark World would be a truth to trivial to even include, but with the additional clause, it might be important. The Second and Fifth Crystals are in the hands of the bodies that "embody" those dreams. Gerson is not an object... but his dust is, and Gerson Boom's greatness is what lead to his son's feelings of inadequacy. And the Third Crystal appears alongside the Black Shard, the piece that Susie knocked off the Knight's Black Knife in the moment she was closest to succeeding.

And so, that leads us to...

Well, it actually doesn't bring us much closer to solving the mystery of "whose dream created the Shadow Crystal held by Jevil?"

Which Lightner's dream is sentimentally tied to the Joker Card in a useless deck, held for years in an unused classroom?

December? Kris? Asriel?

I don't know. But it's curious that I don't.

That's the real point of this. To point out that we have plausible candidates for four of the five Shadow Crystals, and the one we don't is the very first one.

So, we've all been having fun with the Pink (or Mad Mew Mew, if you prefer) and Kris connections, i.e. Pink is a Lightner possessing a Darkner, in the same way the SOUL is possessing Kris.

Well, I noticed something during Pink's battle that I don't think anyone has pointed out yet. During the third phase, where she splits into Ghost and Body, we get this visual:

Which is very similar to this visual that appears whenever the SOUL is moving to the battle box:

Actually, it appears whenever the SOUL is removed from Kris for whatever reason:

Yes I finished the Chapter already.

Mad Mew Mew Secret Boss Real. The twink gets obliterated. There is no Roaring Knight Reveal. Susie insists that Noelle has to become part of proceedings, which seems to upset Kris. Home is where the Castle Town is (I think that's the only option). Rudy is presumably dying offscreen.

I don't know if this will pan out, obviously, but I have a hunch about the overall structure for of the Devil's Episodes. Namely that they seem to have increasingly "guilty" clients.

Episode 0 has Carlos Flatt. Carlos is not only innocent of the specific crime he has been accused of, he is innocent of any crime at all. He's a down on his luck, working class guy who is justifiably angry about his situation. Clean as the driven snow. Won't even touch lootboxes.

Episode 1 has David and Serra Ashur. Technically, Morgan is defending herself when she's defending Serra, but the point stands that Serra is the one in the hot seat during the latter half Episode 1. We'll tackle them seperately.

David is innocent of the specific crime he has been accused of, namely suicide, but he is, in fact, guilty of a crime. Creating each of those 300+ AIs was a crime, according to the law as written. But it is not a crime the audience is likely to recognize as either criminal or immoral, although it was extremely reckless.

Serra is, possibly, by technicality, not guilty of being an AI. Possibly. But even if she was, the audience is absolutely going to see that law as unjust in the extreme, because it criminalizes Serra's very existence. So, she wasn't programmed, and therefore is technically innocent, but even then, any legal system that would prosecute her for being an AI will not be seen as legitimate by the audience.

Episode 2 has Sosuke Ikariya, who is innocent of the five murders he is accused of comitting, but is guilty of quite a lot of murder in general. But there are some mitigating factors, to wit: 1, he is murdering nouveau riche assholes. 2, at the end of the Episode, we are assured that he will not be comitting any more murders (at least, none which are not comitted in direct defense of Makoto). Thus, Morgan, Serra, and the player are not indirectly responsible for any future murders he commits.

Episode 3 seems to be setting the next client as a radical activist, the sort the State would probably label a terrorist instead. If it is instead the case that Episode 3's client has been dragged in as a scapegoat, my theory may not hold. But if this is someone like the Witch of the West, or some figure we've yet to hear about, then that person would, unequivocally, be guilty of the crime they've been accused of.

And for the first time, Serra, and the player, would have to confront the idea of defending someone who has comitted a crime, potentially a quite serious crime like arson, and will do so again if let free. In this case, we are left with only mitigating factors, namely the motive: resisting tyrrany, which is a very noble end.

All this would indicate a trend, of increasingly "guilty" clients, from fully innocent, to innocent*, to complicated, to guilty-but-have-you-considered-the-implications, all the way to...

The guiltiest of guilties, of course.

Evangeline Morgan. Who is guilty of all this and more, who will kill if let free, who will revel in evil and bloodshed until the day she is caught and sentenced. (Right?)

The structure is building Serra, and indirectly the audience, up to the point where she can accept defending someone who has done wrong, with no caveats, asterisks, or mitigation.

Until she can defend the Devil herself.

Because that is what a defense attourney does. They are not called, as almost always happens in Ace Attourney, to defend the innocent. Often, they defend the guilty. And, this is the key, they are right to do so. Even monsters need someone to fight for them. That is the adverserial process. Without that, without a defender, the product is unjust. You need someone who can stand up and...

(Forgive the pun.)

Probably a fairly obvious list, but I'll still take the time to justify it. This isn't necessarily my preference, it's more of an attempt to predict the priorities of the writing room.

None of the four non-Hajime Survivors are making it out, of course. If I had to pick one of them who I think might survive, though, it would be Sonia, but even that is doubtful. The only way I can really see one of these four making it is if Hajime doesn't, but I'll say more about that later.

Mikan is going out again, although it'll be nothing like the Despair Disease, obviously. Honestly, she could be a Case 3 victim, but her autopsies are too useful to allow her to stick around for the whole game, even though she didn't really get all that much screentime.

Nagito didn't make it the first time, but even if he isn't the first victim or something close to that, going out in a blaze of glory is still this guy's best trick. He's as doomed as ever.

Gundham had a fairly deep run and ended as a culprit. He's gotten plenty already.

Ibuki hasn't but I think they'll kill her off later, to mark the turning point where the plot becomes more serious. She's a fairly pure comic relief character, so they won't lose much by offing her. Only way they could surprise me is if she's a culprit. Maybe she'll get the Despair Disease this time?

Hajime is probably safe, but I'm placing him slightly higher than that because killing off and replacing him as the protagonist is a good and intuitive way to differentiate SDR2 from 2x2, and that might get him knocked out. But if he survives the first case, he's surviving the whole game.

Chiaki went out toward the end as a culprit, but she didn't mean to do that. Honestly, she might be too low on this list. Her placement could just be wishful thinking, but as a core cast member who, nevertheless, didn't survive, they might let her live just to please the fans. Or kill her off again to hurt even more.

I'm so fucking scared Teruteru is going to survive. Please just let him be Case 2's victim. Please.

Ultimate Impostor could go far, honestly. If they weren't an impostor and therefore inherently duplicitous, and if there wasn't the risk that they're somehow Case 1's victim again, I'd rank them lower.

Nekomaru went pretty far, but he was still only in 2 cases, which is pretty low considering he made it to Chapter 4. I give him decent odds, there's plenty to build on.

Peko is surviving to invert what happened with her and Fuyuhiko in the original Case 2. This is so obvious I might actually get mad if they don't do this.

Mahiru may be the new Chiaki. She may be the new protagonist, even. Either way, she's basically perfect as a new survivor.