capital ghost

The question of the week: how would the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) respond to its embarassing defeat to Jubaland forces in Lower Jubba and continue efforts to isolate regional president Ahmed Madobe? The answer: By augmenting efforts in Gedo region, where there is a weaker concentration of Madobe’s troops and long-running angst against the regional leader. The FGS is flying more troops…

On the same day that Jubaland regional forces summarily defeated forces from the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) near Raas Kambooni, Turkey announced that Ethiopia and the FGS signed the Ankara Declaration to ease tensions between the two nations stemming from Addis Ababa’s controversial MOU with Somaliland where it would lease port access in exchange for recognition as an independent…

Amid an ongoing dispute over the format of local and national elections, the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) is executing a high pressure campaign against Jubaland region through lawfare, territorial pressure, and political pressure. Background: FGS and allied regions (Hirshabelle, Galmudug, Southwest) agreed on a controversial plan to extend the terms of several regional leaders in support…

Analysis: Somalia’s President and Opposition Battle for International Support Amid Delayed Elections

On March 8, in a letter to Somalia’s key foreign partners, the Council of Presidential Candidates (CPC) demanded the president hand over key powers to the prime minister, alleging Villa Somalia can no longer negotiate a path to holding elections in good faith due to ongoing abuses of power.  Since reaching an agreement last September on an alternative electoral model in place of a popular vote,…

Somali Government Announces New Election Timeline As Parliament’s Mandate Expires

Amid ongoing delays in holding timely elections, Somalia’s Federal Electoral Implementation Team (FEIT) announced an updated timeline for Upper House (December 31 – January 6) and Lower House polls (January 7 until an unidentified date.) Who’s the Spoiler?: Despite no agreement yet, the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) likely announced the new timeline to pressure the opposition into…

Around the Horn: Somalia’s Coronavirus Cases Now Among Highest in East Africa

Djibouti’s “Return to Normal”

Djibouti will begin “unlocking the country” in one of the most recent examples of a nation relaxing quarantine measures over social fatigue and economic distress rather than victory over the virus. For example, South Sudan is executing a similar relaxation despite a more than ten-fold rise in confirmed cases.

The incremental measures will include the resumption of…

Somalia Gets Ventilators, Kenya Mass Tests in Poor Areas, and More East Africa Updates

Djibouti

As of May 4, Djibouti has confirmed 1,116 positive coronavirus cases from 14,222 tests.

Somalia

Journalism on the coronavirus in Somalia continues to explore the operational tempo of grave sites and ambulance drivers as a means to understand the actual spread of the virus given insufficient testing.

Via the Guardian:

Dahir Mohamud, a funeral worker at Geed-Timir graveyard in Mogadishu,…

Unexplained Deaths in Tanzania, Somalia’s Coronavirus Data Gaffe, and more East Africa Updates

Djibouti

Via Mohamed Salh: Djibouti reported 8 new COVID-19 cases in the last 24 hours, bringing the country’s total confirmed cases to 1,097. It has reported two deaths and 672 recoveries.

Somalia

Both Somaliland and Puntland confirmed the first deaths in the region from the coronavirus.

Meanwhile, Somalia’s Minister of Information came under controversy yesterday after he told reporters that…

East Africa Coronavirus Roundup: April 30, 2020

Djibouti

The US military base in Djibouti is on lockdown after a second case of coronavirus was confirmed (via RFI):

Camp Lemonnier, which provides the US military with a strategic foothold in east Africa, will go on indefinite lockdown to prevent further spread of Covid-19. A second sick contractor tested positive and was evacuated from Djibouti, prompting the lockdown of the base, reported…

First Confirmed Coronavirus Cases Emerge in Somalia’s Southwest Region and AMISOM

On April 28, Somalia announced 48 new coronavirus cases, including the first confirmed positive tests in the Southwest region. The total case load in the country has reached 528, with 28 confirmed deaths.

The new cases in the Southwest region come as the director of the main hospital in Barawe, Dr. Cabdulaahi Cabdiraxmaan Nuuraane, raised the alarmof community transmissions occurring in the port…

Similar to previous administrations, the FGS has prioritized the defeat of its domestic political opponents during the last months of its mandate rather than creating a conducive environment for elections and defeating al-Shabaab.

The political disruption that the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) has directed in Galmudug and Jubaland regions will undermine the process to build a consensus on a…

Weekend Note: Al-Shabaab and Kenya’s Tit-for-Tat Destruction of Telecom Infrastructure

Destroyed Hormuud mast, August 2018

The war between Kenya and al-Shabaab is not just being waged on remote bases like Camp Simba, highways, and city streets. It is taking a toll on telecom infrastructure as well.

Via Reuters this past week:

“Four Kenyan school children were killed in a gunfight on Tuesday between police and al Shabaab militants from Somalia who attacked a telecommunications mast…

Key Updates to Al-Shabaab’s Attack on U.S. and Kenyan Forces

One day after al-Shabaab’s attack on the Camp Simba airstrip in Kenya, many more details are emerging about the casualties and retaliatory responses.

Most importantly: Nine years after invading Somalia to confront al-Shabaab, Kenya has failed to secure its border.Due to the threat of al-Shabaab mass raids, the Kenya Defense Forces (KDF) have pulled many of its forces in Somalia back to forward…

In a span of three days last week, Qatar went from alleged villain to aspiring hero in Somalia.

First came the allegation that Qatar had funded a terror attack in Puntland that was later claimed by the Islamic State supporters in Somalia. The primary piece of evidence was an audiotaped conversation between a Qatari businessman close to the government and the Qatari ambassador to Somalia:

“The…

Analysis: Does Somalia’s Jubaland Leader Deserve Another Term?

By the end of this August, clan elders from Somalia’s Jubaland region will select a new assembly whose parliamentarians will vote for a regional president. It is accepted as a virtual certainty that the incumbent president, Ahmed Madobe, will retain his post.

After the former al-Shabaab ally seized the regional HQ of Kismayo with Kenyan troops in 2012, he has won successive elections in 2013 and…

On July 17, representatives of Sudan’s protest movement under the Forces of Freedom and Change (FFC) signed the first part of a power-sharing agreement with the Transitional Military Council (TMC) following the December 2018 uprising that led to the downfall and arrest of dictator Omar al-Bashir. The initial agreement calls for the formation of three transitional institutions:

Sovereign Council:…

Somali Regional Leaders Must Present Specific Policy Ideas to Resolve Crises

In early May at a week-long summit in Garowe, Somali leaders failed to agree on a myriad of issues related to security, elections, political meddling, and revenue sharing.

There is no way forward for resolving the key policy differences between the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) until regional administrations provide their specific recommendations to draft legislation from the Prime…