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@blacksheepwx
** UPDATE ** Today's discussion and forecast will be later this afternoon. I have a medical procedure today and won't be available to analyze and forecast until later in the day. Well, if you want an accurate and dependable forecast that is!
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REGIONAL FORECAST THU JUL 23, 2026 - 2:00PM THIS AFTERNOON: Mostly cloudy. High: lower 80s TONIGHT: Decreasing clouds west to east. Low: low-mid 60s FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. High: low-mid 80s FRIDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Low: near 70
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Warmer. Highs: mid-upper 90s SATURDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. A few storms possible north of St. Cloud and Alexandria. Low: low-mid 70s SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. High: mid-upper 90s
SUNDAY NIGHT: 50% chance of evening storms, some could be severe. Low: low-mid 70s MONDAY: Sunny. High: mid-upper 90s Low: near 70 TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY: Mostly clear. Highs: low-mid 90s Lows: near 70
REGIONAL WEATHER DISCUSSION THU JUL 23, 2026 - 1:00PM Another beautiful late spring day in progress in spite of the calendar saying it is July. There is a small chance of storms in Central MN on Friday with a warm front moving north across the region. #mnwx #wiwx #hot #heatwave
Enjoy today and tomorrow as the weekend turns hot and humid again. Saturday into mid-next week look to be an extended hot and humid period with highs running in the low-mid 90s and dewpoints again in the upper 60s to low 70s.
There is a chance of storms overnight Sunday into early Monday. Some storms could be severe with strong winds being the primary threat and a lesser chance of large hail. Tornadoes do not appear likely at this time. We will continue to monitor the situation and update as needed.
REGIONAL WEATHER DISCUSSION TUE JUL 21, 2026 - 12:00PM What a difference a day makes! Today is a beautiful mid-summer day with highs only reaching to near 80 with a northwest wind at 15-20 mph gusting as high as 30-35.
Tmperatures will slowly climb through the week and by the weekend we are back into the low-mid 90s and lows only around 70. The only glimmer of precipitation in the next seven days is a 20% chance of storms on Saturday night. Sunday could see the return of wildfire smoke.
...AIR QUALITY ALERT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM CDT FRIDAY... * WHAT...The Air Quality Index (AQI) reaching the Maroon or Hazardous category. * WHERE...Central Minnesota including the Twin Cities.
* IMPACTS...Everyone can be affected by wildfire smoke in these concentrations. Minor trace amounts of ashfall are likely and have been reported across MN. * NOTE: Areas along I-90 from Austin west and areas southwest of the Minnesota River west of Mankato are NOT included.
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REGIONAL WEATHER UPDATE MON JUL 13, 2026 - 7:00PM CDT Mostly clear skies, hot, humid, and hazy. That's our next seven days. The biggest changes in this weeks forecast are wind shifts (SW today, S tomorrow, NW Wednesday, and back to SW for Thu/Fri.
An EXTREME HEAT WARNING until Thur 9pm for most of the region except for Buffalo Ridge region and the counties listed below which are under a HEAT ADVISORY. Traverse, Big Stone, Fairbault, Freeborn, Martin, Steele, Waseca, Mower, Fillmore, Houston, Olmstead, Dodge, and Wabasha.
Temperatures will be in the low-mid 90s through Wednesday, in the mid 90s to near 100 Thursday, then a slow and steady cooling trend across the weekend with highs in the low 90s on Friday dropping to the low 80s on Monday. No precipitation is forecast in the next seven days.
** REGIONAL WEATHER UPDATE ** Mostly sunny skies with humid conditions will be our forecast for the next seven days. Highs will be in the low-mid 90s and lows 70-75 will allow for little recovery from the heat through the week. #mnwx #wiwx #hot #heatwave
Mostly sunny skies with humid conditions will be our forecast for the next seven days. Highs will be in the low-mid 90s with a couple of days possibly hotter and lows 70-75 will allow for little recovery from the heat through the week.
Wednesday has a small chance (20%) of isolated storms with a weak "cool" front that will only serve to shift our wind direct from S/SW to NW out of the Canadian Prairies which could wildfire smoke to the region. More storms chances appear on Saturday with a stronger cold front.
Beyond Saturday is still an unknown. The computer models are split on the cold front and its effects on the region. The longer we go without rain, the higher the chances of our temperatures warming each day. We could see highs near 100 by the weekend. At this time, the heat looks locked in.
I keep forgetting that if I write off an event, a few minutes later... it will bite me on the back side!
** TORNADO WARNING for Kanabec County until 12:00AM Jul 8, 2026 ** At 1134 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Mora moving east at 30 mph. * Locations impacted include... Mora, Mora Airport and Quamba.
** REGIONAL UPDATE ** TUE JUL 7, 2026 - 11:20PM At this time, there are no warnings in effect for our coverage area. However, flooding is becoming a concern from Hinckley back to Aberdeen, SD as waves of storms moving along a stalled front overnight.
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A convective band is forming in and near central MN at the present time. Hourly rain amounts to 3" and local totals to 6" are possible, which could lead to scattered instances of flash flooding in areas from Alexandria up to Brainerd then as far as Hinckley.
** LIVE STREAM STATUS ** TUE JUL 7, 2026 - 10:57PM CDT We are continuing to monitor the storms moving into western Minnesota. At this time, small hail and gusts to around 65mph are being reported. We are ready in standby mode with everything in place to go live.
** SITUATION UPDATE ** TUE JUL 7, 2026 - 10:20PM CDT Currently, areas to the north and west of the Twin Cities are in a SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH until 4am. There is a CONSIDERABLE Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Traverse and Big Stone counties until 10:30PM. #mnwx #severe
Mesoscale Discussion — West-central MN & northeast SD. A corridor of focused severe wind potential is emerging; 60–80 mph gusts may occur within the next 1–2 hours.
Expect further warnings ahead of this line of storms from Morris down to Montevideo. The line is moving to the east at 35mph and could produce winds up to 70mph.
Areas of flash flooding are expected to develop over portions of the eastern Dakotas into western/central MN through the early overnight hours. West to east training should support hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches with rainfall totals of at 2-4 inches through midnight.
** REGIONAL UPDATE ** TUE JUL 7, 2026 - 1:20PM So far, there is a cluster of strong storms slow moving from Morris towards St. Cloud. However, they will likely fizzle as they approach the Mississippi River early this afternoon. #mnwi #wiwx #storms #heatwave
Another area of storms is expected late evening into the overnight moving from the Aberdeen area eastward into western Minnesota overnight. Strong storms look possible with a non-zero tornado threat due to the humid air mass and directional shear aloft.
Flood Watch for Benton, Douglas, Kanabec, Mille Lacs, Morrison, Pope, Stearns, Stevens, Todd counties until 7am Wednesday. Flood Watch for Crow Wing, Pine & South Aitkin until 10 AM Wed. 1-2" of rain is likely with some areas seeing as much as 4" of rain.
Wednesday night into Thursday, we finally start to lose our storm chances but in return, we get heat and it could be quite hot. The latest runs of the Euro AIFS model show highs into the 100s across the region by early next week with lows only dropping to near 80.
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The SPC has issued a new Severe Thunderstorm watch for areas north and west of a line from approxiamtely Sandstone to Canby and south and east of a line from Lisbon, ND to Orr, MN. Scattered wind gusts to 75mph, isolated hail to 1.5" and a tornado or two are possible.
Primary storm development was north and west of Fargo to Lake of The Woods. There is now a solid line of storms from Ely back to just southeast of Wahpeton, ND with additional cells building further to the southwest. The entire line is moving to the SE at 45mph.
Based on current observations and trends, the line will be affecting Alexandria and Little Falls in the next 60-90 minutes. Areas south and west of Alexandria to St. Cloud will want to continue to monitor the storms developing south and west of Fergus Falls.
REGIONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION MON JUL 6, 2026 - 3:22PM Another typical summer day across the region as temperatures are around 90 and dew point temperatures are around 70. Thunderstorm development has begun across Red River Valley. #mnwx #wiwx #summer #storms
The storms in the Red River Valley area over to Lake of the Woods are expected to continue developing to the south and southeast and may affect areas towards Alexandria and Little Falls around the 8pm time frame. Overall, the storms will be decaying as they move into our region.
We do the same thing tomorrow but with focus on west central into southwest Minnesota seeing the best chances of severe weather. All will be determined by tonight's storms and the lingering boundaries left behind. Wednesday will likely see some pop-up storms.
Thursday into the weekend see a continuation of the summer weather with the medium-range models starting to hint at another heat dome centered over southern Minnesota. If that verifies, it will be extremely hot and humid across the region.