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Noah Berlatsky at Public Notice:

News broke yesterday that the United States and Iran have reached some sort of agreement that may or may not end President Trump’s disastrous war. Details remained scant as this newsletter was finalized Sunday evening, but significantly, Trump wasted no time moving the goalposts on when the Strait of Hormuz will reopen. Trump, of course, has claimed to be on the verge of a peace deal dozens of times before, only to back away when he realizes that ending the war inevitably means admitting the US lost.

It’s notable that the administration has been very leery of revealing the actual details of the agreement to the public. But it appears to involve the United Arab Emirates unlocking billions of dollars in frozen Iranian assets, which is especially humiliating since Republicans have raged for more than a decade about the Obama administration releasing a measly $1.7 billion in Iranian assets to secure a nuclear agreement. To add insult to injury, it’s unclear that Iran will commit to ending its nuclear program; it has agreed to continue to talk about it over the next 60 days, but nothing more. All Trump seems to really be getting is a pinky swear that the Strait of Hormuz will open at some point in the future — which was open before the war started, and which Iran can now close again whenever it’s threatened or wants concessions.

Iran’s victory has been a disaster for the US. The shuttering of the strait has pushed gas and fertilizer prices into the stratosphere and inflation hit a three-year high this month. US credibility globally has been shredded. But the worst effects of Trump’s viciously erratic foreign policy have been born by those subjected to it overseas. Americans are, like everyone, mostly focused on their own worries — worries which now include a seemingly endless fascist assault on our liberty and lives. But the bloodiest and most painful costs of fascism are inflicted on the fascist’s neighbors, and when you’re talking about a global power like the US, “neighbors” here means “everyone on earth.” Authoritarians disregard the voices and needs of their own people, but they are even less constrained when they deal with people that are not their own. If you want to see what Trump would like to do at home, you have only to look to the misery he has unleashed in Iran, Cuba, Venezuela, and Africa. It’s a bleak and terrifying picture.

War crimes in Iran

Trump’s unprovoked attack on Iran is itself an illegal war of aggression under international law. In addition, the war has been conducted with breathtaking disregard for the rules of war and little concern about civilian casualties. The war began in February with a horrific bombing of an Iranian girls’ school. More than 160 people, most of them children, were killed. US officials have tacitly acknowledged American responsibility, though Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Trump refuse to admit it publicly. Experts estimate that Trump’s unprovoked war on Iran war as led to as many as 10,000 deaths and more than 48,500 injuries across the Middle East. These have mostly occurred in Iran and Lebanon, where Israel launched simultaneous (and ongoing) attacks.

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War crimes in South American waters

The evidence that military leaders ordered war crimes in Iran, and that troops carried out illegal orders, is disturbing. It is not, however, exactly surprising. Since the fall of last year, the US has been carrying out unprovoked strikes on boats in South American and Caribbean waters. As of earlier this month, 200 people have been killed.

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USAID and Cuba

Trump’s shooting adventures are dramatic, illegal, and ugly. But he has done even more damage by demolishing US soft power might in other ways. The first example here occurred at the beginning of Trump’s term. Trump allowed Elon Musk and his supposed efficiency experts at DOGE to illegally shut down USAID programs that provided nutrition and healthcare resources around the globe. By November of last year, experts estimated that the withdrawal of aid had already resulted in 600,000 deaths, of which 400,000 were children. That number is expected to balloon to 14 million dead if aid cuts are not reversed by 2030.

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A danger to us and to the world

Trump’s use of US power to indiscriminately target and immiserate civilians has a huge range of potential downsides for Americans. Experts worry that Iran War may lead to an increase in terrorism in the US — such as a shooting at Old Dominion University this March by a man with ties to Islamic State. Cuts to global disease control have made the US less safe; the recent screwworm infestation in Texas, for example, may have been caused in part by cuts to USAID, which funded screwworm detection and prevention at the US-Mexico border. And when Trump pushes the military to follow illegal orders and accustoms them to participating in war crimes, the domestic threat is very clear.

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