October surprise: last-minute scandals that rocked elections
With each US election comes an âOctober surpriseâ, a campaign-threatening scandal revealed ahead of the November vote.
These revelations can be enough to convince swing voters to change their mind â and, in a two-party system, affect the entire outcome of the election.Â
This year is only unusual in the fact weâve had two.Â
First, came the leaked 2005 tape in which Donald Trump was caught making obscene comments about women.
As both Republications and Democrats condemned the comments, several women came forward alleging Trump had sexually assaulted them.Â
It seemed to have killed off the controversial Republicanâs campaign, but then, this week, FBI director James Comey announced a renewed investigation into Hillary Clintonâs emails.Â
Suddenly, the Democratsâ lead was cut â with polls putting the pair neck and neck ahead of the election on November 8.Â
Here are eight other October surprises that rocked elections (including one 'April surpriseâ in the UK).Â
Peace at hand 1972 was the year in which the phrase October surprise first came into use. Senator George McGovern, an anti-war candidate, was elected as Democrat nominate in 1972 as the Vietnam War entered its 17th year. But in a clever piece of political manoeuvring, Henry Kissinger, President Richard Nixonâs right-hand man, announced that "peace is at hand" (despite it being untrue), stealing McGovernâs stance. Nixon was re-elected by a landslide.Â
Financial meltdown  Not a scandal as such, but a crisis: the 2008 recession. After Lehman Brothers went bankrupt and markets crashed across the world in October, Barack Obamaâs assured response allowed him to pull ahead of his rival, the Republican John McCain. The latter had earlier claimed that the âfundamentals of our economy are strongâ, coming across as ill-informed and unprepared about the financial crash.
Drink driving When evidence emerged of George W Bushâs drink-driving conviction from 1976, it seemed it may push the election in the favour of Al Gore. However, Bush handled the scandal adroitly, dubbing it dirty politics by the Democrats (who denied any involvement). Bush had been open about his drinking problems in the past, and this, if it had any effect, wasnât enough to stop Bush winning the election (just).Â
Sex scandal In 1964, Lyndon B Johnsonâs campaign looked to have been severely damaged when his top aide Walter Jenkins was arrested for disorderly conduct with another man in a Washington DC YMCA, a ânotoriousâ â as it was termed at the time â âgathering place for homosexualsâ. Republican Barry Goldwater, deeply unpopular even in his own party, may have thought he could steal a march â but the scandal had little impact. Johnson won 61 per cent of the vote.Â
Deadly silence In 1884, James G Blaine, the Republican presidential, was hit by a late scandal that cost him the election. He attended an GOP meeting where a Presbyterian minister accused the Democrats of representing ârum, Romanism, and rebellionâ âi.e alcohol, Catholics, and the Confederacy. His failure to voice an objection caused Irish Catholics to abandon him. He lost to Democrat Grover Cleveland.Â
Iranian talks One of the more peculiar October surprises, which strays firmly into conspiracy. Iranian radicals had taken 52 hostages at the US embassy in Tehran in 1979; but, despite negotiations, the countryâs Prime Minister Mohammad Ali Rajai suddenly declared the hostages would not be released while Jimmy Carter was president. The latter believed it to be the work of Ronald Reagan (who had met with Iran), the Republic candidate, who later swept to victory. The hostages were released the same day.Â
The War on Terror In late October 2004, Osama bin Laden released a video claiming responsibility for 9/11 attacks â and attacked President George W Bush, calling him a dictator. The timing â just a week before the election â boosted Bushâs popularity, and renewed support for the War on Terror (which Democrat John Kerry had heavily criticised). Bush comfortably won a second term.Â
Bigotgate Thereâs no UK equivalent to the October surprise, as such, but Gordon Brownâs infamous Bigotgate comments were made just a week before the 2010 election. Sixty-five-year-old Gillian Duffy had challenged Mr Brown on immigration, but the then Prime Minister was caught on microphone shortly after calling her a âbigoted womanâ. It dealt a final blow to Brownâs already faltering campaign.Â
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