A Reasoning Analysis on the 1.19 Corpse Broken Case of Nanjing University(Translated By Google)
与一般的看法不同,笔者认为彼时民风未开,受害者生前初入南京不久,兼及手機、QQ等即时通讯方式还远未兴起,甚至连BP机都还未进入寻常百姓家,旋即涉情甚至因此被害的可能性极其低微(当然还需考察和结合其是否之前有过恋爱史,还有对其性格、行为、关系网、关联人、生活轨迹等的分析,有待做一进步评估、研判、推理、认定或排除);而因仇被害的可能性也几近于零;仅凭被碎尸2000多块,就断言凶手为屠夫或医生,显然过于主观。这样的论断逻辑性自然较为孱弱。
因财被害也属几无可能。至于网传的为医学用途而当街掳人,罔顾女大学生鲜活生命及其重大影响的揣测妄断实不敢苟同。
Contrary to what is generally believed, the author believes that the folk customs had not yet been established at that time. The victims entered Nanjing not long ago, and instant messaging methods such as QQ and mobile phones are far from rising. Even the BP machine has not even entered the homes of ordinary people. The possibility of even being victimized is extremely low (of course, it is necessary to investigate and combine whether he has a history of love before, as well as the analysis of his personality, behavior, relationship network, related people, life trajectory, etc., which needs to be evaluated for progress. Research and judgment, reasoning, determination or exclusion); and the possibility of being killed due to enmity is also close to zero; it is obviously too subjective to assert that the murderer is a butcher or a doctor based on more than 2,000 corpses. The logic of such a conclusion is naturally weaker.
It is almost impossible to be killed for money. As for the online abduction of people on the street for medical purposes, the speculation that disregards the fresh lives of female college students and their significant impact is really disagreeable.
2. Based on known and limited information, analysis of motivation and reasons
(一). 关于案件定性:笔者倾向于认为是医疗事故,或争吵、争执过程中意外失手造成的误伤、误杀,及拌嘴、口角引致的激情杀人,抑或存在概率较低的劫色可能性(临时起意的非预谋杀人),不完全排除变态杀人,而掳人取乐、绑架杀人等的可能性极其低微。
(二). 研判分析极有可能的案发地点:通过抛尸地点分布及囿于彼时城市客观状况及物质条件,倾向于认为南大周边包括青岛路附近有一定人气、规模的,适合工薪阶层、学生族群等受众闲逛、购物、采买的步行街、夜市及其周边的门市、铺面、档口(笔者粗估以南大南園宿舍区,更准确地讲是以囊括南大周边几处抛尸点的圆圈圆心为基点,方圆0.5-1公里之内。如万一实有必要至多再延展扩大至2、3公里或可),尤以青岛路、汉口路、广州路等附近路段为最,临街的民居其可能性则较小。
笔者认为凶手为周边小诊所、小型医疗服务点医生及小药店、附近美容业、个体按摩推拿等服务业者的可能性为大;
周边图书租赁售卖、摄影摄像洗印、礼品精品店等以及饮食、小吃店、碟片音像店、钟表电器维修、美容美发、干洗、金银首饰清洗、修鞋打钉等一、两个或少数几个人即可值守、具备作案时空的(尤以有獨立廚衛、倉儲、閣樓、夾層的為最),如以个体戶、夫妻店形式存在的小型服务业者的可能性居多(注:需可吸引女大学生入内)。故此,凶手为厨师的可能性存在,而屠夫、锅炉工的概率则极其低微。
不同于“白银连环强奸杀人案”,我认为该案件并不能完全排除2人或2人以上共同作案亦即存在辅助作案者的可能性,抑或是有知情人了解、涉及,特别是近亲属知情的情形。
(1) Regarding the characterization of the case: The author tends to think that it is a medical accident, accidental injury, manslaughter, and passionate murder caused by quarrel in the process of dispute, or there is a low probability of robbery (non-premeditated murder) ), the possibility of perverted murder is not completely excluded, and the possibility of kidnapping for fun, kidnapping and killing is extremely low.
(2). Research, judge and analyze the most likely location of the crime: according to the location of the dumped body and the objective conditions and material conditions of the city at this time, it tends to believe that the surrounding areas of Nantah University, including Qingdao Road, have a certain popularity and scale, and are suitable for working class. The pedestrian street, night market and its surrounding shops, shops, stalls (the author roughly estimated the dormitory area of Nannan University, and more accurately the center of the circle encompassing several corpse-throwing spots around Nannan University) The base point, within 0.5-1 km radius, if necessary, it can be extended to 2, 3 km or more if necessary), especially in the vicinity of Qingdao Road, Hankou Road, Guangzhou Road, etc. It is possible for residential houses facing the street The sex is smaller.
However, it can almost rule out the possibility of committing crimes in the school. Due to space limitations, I will not repeat them here.
3. Outline analysis of the identity of the suspect
(1) If it is confirmed that Diao was not killed on the day of disappearance:
The author believes that it is highly likely that the killer will be nearby small clinics, small medical service point doctors and small pharmacies, nearby beauty industry, individual massage and massage service providers;
(2). If Diao was killed on the same day, then:
Peripheral book rental and sales, photography and camera printing, gift boutiques, etc., as well as food, snack shops, disc audio and video stores, clock and electrical repairs, beauty salons, dry cleaning, gold and silver jewelry cleaning, shoe nail repairs, etc. One, two or a few Individuals who can be on duty and have time and space to commit crimes, such as small-scale service industry practitioners in the form of individuals and mom-and-pop shops, are most likely to be (Note: female college students must be attracted to enter). Therefore, the possibility of the murderer being a cook exists, while the probability of a butcher and a boiler worker is extremely low.
Different from the "Silver Serial Rape and Murder Case", I think this case cannot completely rule out the possibility of two or more people committing the crime together, that is, the possibility of assisting the perpetrator, or that someone who knows knows and is involved, especially close relatives knows. Situation.
4. Current situation and its explanation
错失黄金破案期,致只有受害者尸骸而无准确案发时间,且无第一案发现场,无影像资料,无直接目击者,无特定关系网和关系人,彼时案件甫发作案动机亦未能准确定性,侦查思路、方向错误,最关键的未知是否提取到了如指纹、DNA等将来能够直接指证凶手的痕迹物证、生物检材等。
曾经的犯罪现场和罪证也早已湮灭在时间的长河中,唯提包、胶袋、床单(尤其是旧床单的情况下)等似应可有迹可循。不排除随着科技进步,对该案重启侦查,以及利用微量痕迹检材重新提取检测出有效生物物证的可能!
Missing the golden time to solve the case, resulting in only the remains of the victim but no accurate time of the crime, no first scene of the crime, no video data, no direct witnesses, no specific network and related persons, and the motive of the case was also Failure to accurately qualitative, wrong thinking and direction of investigation, the most critical unknown is whether fingerprints, DNA, and other traces and biological materials that can directly prove the murderer in the future have been extracted.
The previous crime scenes and evidence have long been obliterated in the long river of time. Only bed sheets, etc., should be traceable. It is not ruled out that with the advancement of science and technology, the investigation of the case should be restarted, and the detection of the case should be re-extracted with traces of materials. The possibility of effective biological evidence!
符合大多数无头案的所有特征,笔者倾向于认为其在目前党国混沌倒错的体制下应当是无解的,会成为悬案,除非嫌犯自己暴露、自首,或有他人揭發(已近卅年,幾無可能),如部分报章里报道的英国伦敦白教堂区的开膛手杰克、美国黄道十二宫杀手那样死后留有线索,以及像平冈都案(“日本南大案”)嫌犯矢野富荣那样因车祸事故意外死亡而以诡异的方式呈现、明晰案情;抑或由知情者检举揭发披露,如河南亿万富豪杨志才杀人案;还有后世科学技术取得重大突破,物证鉴识重新获得认定等,如白银案、2019年获得突破的韩国华城案、安徽作家杀人案、1991年女学生萨拉·雅伯勒(Sara Yarborough)被杀案等。
注:若非要给出准确的破案率,勉强可算1-2%。不过若南京警方做了如下工作:事发时南大及鼓楼区靠近南大附近的、次正街门市门脸档口铺面,及临街的民居,尤以案件可能发生地的青岛路、汉口路、广州路附近的,已全部详尽登记建档、造册,同时周边建筑物、街景、场景等(特别是抛尸所涉重要场地,如体育场、大门(天津路)等)经由影视像等存档,布局构造等具备重现性、溯及性及可稽核性(应该可能性不大),若确有可指证的其他它证据,如血型、掌纹、身高、体重等,则破案率可达10%左右,而若是指纹、体液、DNA等,甚或某些情形条件下可升至95%以上。
如果仅为破案、研究案情计,不妨学习西人,恪守契约,严守律条,法定追诉期,依法寻求与案犯达成某种意义上的抵罪和解以及允许污点证人存在,以期促使案犯自首和坦陈内情,藉此或可有机会一窥这一名動天下悬案的堂奥。
透过党国无数错乱的葫芦僧判断葫芦案实例和层出不穷、推陈出新的冤假错案,特别是腌臜的白银案可以看出,失之毫厘谬以千里!
只有当公权力受到制衡和监督,滥权和枉法会被批判与追责,案卷证据材料等足够公开,冠猿尚存廉耻与道德感,不存在任何欺瞒和遮掩,相关信息不再失真和错乱,对案情的定性定向定准才有实质性意义!
党国极权苛政下,法度废弛,信仰崩塌,道德沦丧,贪腐日炽,遍地是灾!掌握公权的厂公们德不配位,沐猴而冠,反智愚弄洗脑毒蛊强奸民意盛行,廉价娱乐充塞视听,奶头乐麻痹公众、伤化虐民,悖论乱象背后深层因由一切皆属禁忌,所有的社会问题指向的其实都是政治问题!
而公安、刑界则更是恶棍当道,人渣遍地,党国所谓的神探们假公济私,罔顾公平正义,亦早已逐鹿名利场为先,讲求官运亨通,更深陷温柔乡中,表面上为人民服务云云,裱装得何其金玉其外,实则早已腐败溃烂不堪,尽是败絮其中!
这点从商洛龙治民案、白银案、广州罗树标连环杀人切割女性器官案、平舆黄勇案、昆明张永明案、佳木斯男童杀手宫润伯案、肇东蒋英库案、呼格案、念斌案、聂树斌案、深圳市杀人碎尸剥离人脸皮案、浙江叔侄冤案、新晃一中操场埋尸案、益阳李尚平案、孙小果案、冷水江兩高中生姦殺女教師案等各种典型大案、要案、冤案、悬案更加可以看出,党棍们的疏漏、低能、反智、无耻、下作,甚至是胡作非为、群体造孽等,可谓是多如牛毛俯拾皆是,令人触目惊心瞠目结舌,或已达臻今古罕有、无以复加的程度!
在公安系统内家丁们破案乏术、贪腐有方的猪瘟鼠疫仍旧肆虐蔓延,刑侦依然停留在吃大锅饭,破案过分倚重监控、刑讯逼供和獄偵耳目,却可以任意操控舆论尽情欺瞒吹撒,明明事后诸葛亮、事前猪一样,却可以恣肆胡说八道、自欺欺人的现行体制里,以及在依靠党控媒体,可以把意淫当自信,以无耻为机智,把公然说谎、脑控驭民,洗白污黑历史当作主旋律、正能量,硬要把尸位素餐的低能草包与贪渎宣淫的搅屎粪蛆们,通过苦难营销、悲情絮叨渲染美化成为公仆、英雄,依旧可以无耻地博取无脑公众的同情与好感的党棍文化套路横行下,势必缺乏必要的内生动力、外赋压力及破案所需的、起码的必备条件,所以南大案就是一池浑水,纵是福尔摩斯、亨特在世,对于该案的推理分析亦是难言绝对精准!更遑论橘生淮北则为枳,沽名钓誉、早已娱乐至死终究盛名难副的李神汉们亦同样不能免俗! 2016.2.18 初稿(持续调整更新中)
In line with all the characteristics of most headless cases, the author tends to believe that they should be unsolvable under the current party-state chaotic and inverted system, and they will become unsolved cases unless the suspect reveals himself or surrenders, as reported in some newspapers. There are clues left after the death of Jack the Ripper in the church district and the American zodiac killer, and the accidental death of the suspect in the Hiraokato case ("Nantai case") due to the accidental death of the car accident in a strange way, Clarify the facts of the case; or report and disclose it by insiders, such as the murder case of Henan billionaire Yang Zhicai; and the major breakthroughs in science and technology of later generations, and the recognition of physical evidence forensics, such as the silver case and the Hwaseong case of South Korea that achieved a breakthrough in 2019 , Anhui writer homicide case, 1991 female student Sara Yarborough (Sara Yarborough) murder case, etc.
Note: If you have to calculate the detection rate, it can barely be calculated as 1-2%. However, if the Nanjing police did the following: at the time of the incident, Nanda and Gulou District were close to the shopmen’s face stalls near Nanda, and the residential houses facing the street, especially those near Qingdao Road, Hankou Road, and Guangzhou Road where the incident might occur, were all Detailed registration and filing, and the layout and structure of surrounding buildings, street scenes, scenes, etc. (especially important venues involved in the dumping of corpses, such as stadiums, gates, etc.) are reproducible, traceable and auditable (should be The probability is unlikely). If there is direct evidence such as fingerprints, palmprints, DNA, etc., the detection rate can reach about 10%, or even more than 30% under certain circumstances.
If it is only for solving the case and studying the case, it may be better to learn from the Westerners, the legal prosecution period, and seek to reach a certain sense of settlement with the criminal and allow the presence of tainted witnesses, in order to urge the criminal to surrender and confess the inside information, which may have an opportunity A glimpse of this world-famous outstanding case.
Judging from the countless series of erroneous gourd monks in the party and state, especially the pickled silver case, it can be seen that the mistakes are too far away. Only when public power is checked and balanced and supervised, abuse of power and violation of the law will be criticized. With respect to accountability, evidence and materials in the case file are sufficiently open, Guan Yuan still has a sense of integrity and morality, there is no deception or cover-up, and the relevant information is no longer distorted and confused. Only when the qualitative orientation of the case has substantive significance!
Under the totalitarian regime of the party and the state, the legal system is abolished, morality collapses, and corruption is rising day by day, and disasters are everywhere! The factory officials who hold public power do not match their virtues, they are crowned by monkeys, anti-intelligence fools, brainwashing poison, rapes popular opinion, cheap entertainment fills the audiovisual, nipples paralyze the public, hurt the people, and the deep reasons behind the paradox are everything All are taboos, and all social issues are actually political issues! The public security and criminal circles are even more villainous, and there are scumbags everywhere. The so-called detectives of the party and the state are pretending to be public and private, regardless of fairness and justice. They have long been ahead of the vanity market. They insist on prosperous officials, and are more deeply trapped in a gentle town, and on the surface they serve the people. , How golden and jade the mounting is, but in fact it has long been corrupted and festered, it is full of ruin! This includes the Shangluo Longzhimin case, the Baiyin case, the Guangzhou Luoshubiao serial murder and cutting of female organs, the Pingyu Huang Yong case, the Kunming Zhang Yongming case, the Jiamusi boy killer Gong Runbo case, the Zhaodong Jiang Yingku case, the Huge case, and the Nian Bin case, Nie Shubin case, Shenzhen homicide, broken corpse and stripped face case, Zhejiang uncle and nephew case, Xinhuang No. 1 middle school burial case, Yiyang Li Shangping case, Sun Xiaoguo case and other typical major cases, important cases, unjust cases, unsolved cases, etc. It can be seen that the omissions, incompetence, anti-intellect, shamelessness, mischief, and group crimes of the party sticks can be described as numerous, shocking and shocking, or have reached the level of rare in the present and beyond!
In the public security system, the swine fever plague is still raging and spreading. Criminal investigations are still eating a big pot of food. They rely too much on monitoring, prison detectives and torture to extract confessions, but they can manipulate public opinion to deceive and confess. Obviously Zhuge Liang after the event is like a pig before the event, but in the current system that can talk nonsense and deceive others at will, and relying on the party to control the media, you can regard adultery as self-confidence, shamelessly as a wit, and use blatant lies and brain control to control the people and wash white. The dark history is regarded as the main theme and positive energy, and it is necessary to use the low-energy straw bag of the corpse position vegetarian meal and the corrupt and profanity to stir the feces and maggots to become public servants and heroes through misery marketing and sadness. You can still shamelessly win the brainless public Under the circumstance of the party and stick culture of sympathy and favor, it is bound to lack the necessary endogenous motivation, external pressure, and the minimum necessary conditions for solving the case. Therefore, the Nanda case is a pool of muddy water, even if Sherlock Holmes and Hunter are alive. , The reasoning analysis of the case is also unspeakably accurate! Not to mention that the oranges in Huaibei are trifoliate, and Li Shenhan, who has long been entertained to death, is also unavoidable! 2016.2.18 First draft (continuous adjustment and update)
附该事件最新闻:南大碎尸案受害者家属起诉校方索赔百万,认为学校管理有过错