Kay, just spitballing shit to try to map out my feelings on Asgoriel.
So of course the main thing that really hits me about this ship is the idea of two broken people rediscovering a lost love for each other that fulfilled them before and they have been more empty for the loss of it.
Asgore’s feeling less fulfilled by Toriel not being there for him is more blatant in the story. Toriel’s is a LOT more subtle. She’s run away from Asgore, sure, but she still talks about being “Bonely” in her journal. It’s not an accidental inclusion - she wants to be friends with people, she wants to connect to people again, but she gets too reminded of Him in those moments and I feel like she pushes herself away from that for the purpose of not wanting to forgive him yet. Yet she’s been lonely for so long that she struggles to understand why someone who’s not Asgore would flirt with her.
I definitely DO think that the healing potential of this ship is real post-pacifist. Asgore and Toriel both haven’t had a real chance to come to healthy terms about what happened to their family, they never got the chance to get genuine closure. I genuinely think they’d struggle to do that solo. It’s plain that Toriel hasn’t gotten that closure yet - the alarm clock dialogue about “never letting Asriel go again” is flat-out proof of that.
And I think that’s something else big that the fandom struggles with on Toriel - she tries to BURY stuff. Hell, that’s the whole point of her fight! She’s burying the realization that Frisk can’t stay in the ruins forever, she’s burying her feelings about all the bundled-up knots that entail her problems in the ruins! Why the hell would she NOT be doing the same thing with Asgore and her feelings about him? She’s burying her feelings about him under the grudge, she’s prioritizing that wound above everything else.
Also worth addressing the meme elephant in the room. I don’t think Sans is as good a fit for Toriel as Asgore purely because Sans’ trauma is left deliberately vague. He doesn’t open up to his brother, much less anyone else, about what the deal is. He can make Toriel giggle and laugh, I definitely see him as being a damn good friend for Toriel, but love takes something more, it takes that potential for mutual improvement and support that I don’t think Sans can achieve with Toriel, because they just wouldn’t complement each other’s cracks correctly.
Meanwhile, Asgore knows, like, exactly what Toriel’s deal is. He’s not confused about it in the slightest. Hell, he understands why she’s initially so bitter. Yet it’s plain that it’s not a Fuck You And Die grudge, but more a gargantuan issue that the two of them have been forced to simmer on for the past century. They definitely can address the problem, because they get down to business quick enough even after the dressing down Toriel gives Asgore in the throne room. They can address what’s gone down between them, and within a few months after the events of the game, it’s quick enough that Asgore can make Toriel smile with a mention of the past.
Which DEFINITELY is not what fanon toriel would do. Fanon toriel would have a random flipout about “HOW DARE YOU BRING THEM UP YOU UNWORTHY SWINE11111!” But that’s because they just copy+paste her throne room behavior on her whole time post-pacifist.
Toriel’s able to smile at Asgore’s acknowledgement of why she fills the soup up. And she smiles back, and breaks her usual cadence of speech when doing so.
Because 1+1=2, and Asgore bringing up the past+good memories OF that past = smile. If she was still so injured as Fanon would make her about the whole thing, He wouldn’t even dare to bring anything about the past up around her, ever. They can remember the good times and work with each other professionally, so if the big wound is able to scar over as it very plainly can, it’s entirely possible they can tread delicately enough over it to build something new.
On top of all of that, without even bringing Frisk into it. Frisk VERY LIKELY, IN MY OPINION, considers Asgore to be something like a father figure. Why the fuck else would they ask about “what if I was his kid?” to Gerson? Sure, it might just be an instance of a kid asking too many questions, but I’m like 90 percent sure that it’s an implication of Frisk wanting to be Asgore’s kid to some degree.
And if you take that with the ending where Frisk wants to stay with Toriel, then that creates the inevitability of Asgore wanting to co-parent Frisk with Toriel. All of what I’ve described before can be feasibly approached with the two having an okay-ish friendship. But adding in Toriel realizing that Asgore was not just a good dad, but is still a good dad? Oh, you’d best believe the question of “Do I still love him?” is coming up in her head.
Now, of course, a fair amount of this is UT-focused. I’m not perfectly sure how applicable this is to DR. DR Asgore and Toriel are plainly not nearly as broken as their UT counterparts. Toriel is still interacting with broader society. Asgore doesn’t have a family to mourn the DEATH of, just the loss of via divorce. His son and adopted human child aren’t DEAD, just not always around.
A fair amount of what the case is remains to be seen. I’ll see if I ship Asgoriel in DR as well. But I’m gonna flat-out admit that I’m likely to ship it there too if there’s anything like the tragedy over their UT breakup in that game.