Clues contained in tree rings have identified mid-14th-century volcanic activity as the first domino to fall in a sequence that led to the d
Researchers from the University of Cambridge and the Leibniz Institute for the History and Culture of Eastern Europe (GWZO) in Leipzig have used a combination of climate data and documentary evidence to paint the most complete picture to date of the ‘perfect storm’ that led to the deaths of tens of millions of people, as well as profound demographic, economic, political, cultural and religious change. Their evidence suggests that a volcanic eruption – or cluster of eruptions – around 1345 caused annual temperatures to drop for consecutive years due to the haze from volcanic ash and gases, which in turn caused crops to fail across the Mediterranean region. To avoid riots or starvation, Italian city states used their connections to trade with grain producers around the Black Sea. This climate-driven change in long-distance trade routes helped avoid famine, but in addition to life-saving food, the ships were carrying the deadly bacterium that ultimately caused the Black Death, enabling the first and deadliest wave of the second plague pandemic to gain a foothold in Europe. This is the first time that it has been possible to obtain high-quality natural and historical proxy data to draw a direct line between climate, agriculture, trade and the origins of the Black Death. The results are reported in the journal Communications Earth & Environment.
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“Although the coincidence of factors that contributed to the Black Death seems rare, the probability of zoonotic diseases emerging under climate change and translating into pandemics is likely to increase in a globalised world,” said Büntgen. “This is especially relevant given our recent experiences with Covid-19.” The researchers say that resilience to future pandemics requires a holistic approach to address a wide spectrum of health threats. Modern risk assessments should incorporate knowledge from historical examples of the interactions between climate, disease and society.
4 December 2025
