Wait - I didn't vote for that!

It’s always puzzled me that Russians - a proud, creative, energetic people that have made countless contributions to the world in the sciences, literature, music and many other areas - allow themselves to be ruled by a gang of brutal, corrupt, humorless thugs. The world sees today’s Russia primarily as a bleak commodity-producing dictatorship that bullies its smaller neighbors and tries to exert international influence through - get this - massive government-sponsored hacking and trolling social media. And poisoning people they don’t like. And the general population is either proud of all this or indifferent. It’s kind of pathetic.

If Trump loses reelection in 2020 (not a sure thing of course), expect him to resign the day before the new president is inaugurated, and Pence to give him a full pardon (along with pardons for Manafort, Stone and Flynn).

Republicans, pundits and more than a few Democrats will welcome this: time to move on etc. The country will be too swept up in the excitement of the new administration to care. The new administration itself will be glad to be rid of the distraction.

1. Barr’s “summary “ letter established the basic spin of “no collusion, no obstruction“, even though it’s now clear the report is more nuanced. And of course taking advantage of nuance to establish favorable spin is a classic Republican tactic.

2. The letter set off a completely predictable round of Democratic retreat, recriminations, navel-gazing etc.

3. Congressional Democrats’ fully proper demand for the full report was recast as a”tiff”, part of a “feud” between Trump and Nader. Recasting straightforward legal issues in terms of personalities- also classic.

And the future course of events is perfectly obvious:

4. When the redacted report appears, the redactions will almost certainly shade the report in Trump’s favor. Congressional Democrats who have seen the full report will angrily assert this, and Mueller’s investigators will confirm. But Barr and Republicans will deny. And the media will report the controversy.

5. Democrats will subpoena the full report, Republicans will refuse, and it will go to court. Eventually - well after Trump has (hopefully) left office, it will reach the Supreme Court, which will rule in favor of Trump. The full report might well be leaked at that point, but it will attract little notice by journalists, because it’s no longer at the forefront of the news: “the country has moved on.”

So apparently the Cruz campaign, no doubt on the advice of experienced, high priced consultants and operatives, thinks replaying this stirring denunciation of police brutality and incompetence will help Cruz win a Senate seat. I guess because it shows Beto O’Rourke stirring up passion among black churchgoers, thereby awakening primal fears among white voters. Making it an effective attack ad.