theCalculatedGambler

...It's been over 2 years since that fateful day, April 15, 2011. For all poker players, it was one of the most shocking and stomach punching events that ever took place in the poker community. Online poker was gone and so was all of our money.

By now, everyone even remotely close to poker knows the details surrounding the events of that day so I won't go into that here. However, I will say that today is a big moment for me and for anyone else affected by the events of Black Friday. Today is the day that everyone who has had their money in limbo for the last 2+ years, not knowing if they would ever see it again, finally can breathe a little easier. I, like many of you, fell victim to this whole ordeal and am extremely relieved that we can see the light at the end of the tunnel.

Moments ago, I personally filled out the petition for remission to get back what was rightfully mine. Money I thought I would never see it again. While I am thrilled and overjoyed that this day has finally come, I still feel a bit somber about the entire thing. It almost doesn't seem real that we've finally reached this point. Since that day, the landscape of poker has changed dramatically. Many poker players' lives were altered. Some had to uproot themselves and leave the country to continue their livelihood. Some gave up playing all together. I know I'm definitely a different person now and those events had a good amount to do with it. All of a sudden, without a moment's notice, everything I had known was taken from me. I spent a great deal of my time at those virtual tables and to have that freedom stripped away seemed unfathomable only days prior. Reflecting back, I'm not sure where I would be or what I would be doing now if Black Friday had never occurred. I had to reevaluate my life and what I wanted to do from that point on. I had to say goodbye to online poker as a place to earn income, a place to hide away, and a place where I could play a game I loved whenever I wanted. It just created a huge empty space in my life which I didn't know how to fill. However, one thing is certain, just like any bad beat, the only thing to do was wipe it from memory and move forward. Today, we are finally able to do just that and I'm sure glad it's over. 

— theCalculatedGambler 

...which football games to play when there are so many each weekend? 

Whether you are a casual bettor or someone who invests for a living, we're all excited that the football season is upon us because, for one, there is an opportunity to make some money while doing something fun. Wagering on a game adds an element of excitement and intrigue to a sporting event that just wouldn't be the same without something on the line. But, with so many games each week, how does one find the game(s) that has the best chance of coming out in your favor?

Often times, the temptation is to bet a lot of games because they all look good. You might feel like you have a good grasp on each contest since you have a wealth of knowledge on the sport, you've done your homework or might even have playing experience further lending to your expertise. Another common thought is that Team A seems to be much better than Team B so there's no way Team A could lose. Or Team B is so bad that it doesn't matter who they play. Just as long as you are betting against that bottom feeder, then your chances are pretty good to win no matter who is the opponent. In fact, week to week, there are probably quite a few matchups that appear favorable and you simply can't decide so you end up betting on most or all of them. This is a very common problem and a big no-no, but it can be addressed with a little discipline and strategy.

To keep things simple, let's look at the NFL since there are fewer games each week. First, take that day's schedule and split it into two halves. The first half being the early games starting at 1 PM EST and the other being the late games at 4 PM EST (If you want to go further, you can divide it into thirds with the prime time game as the last piece.) Think of each set of games, 1 PM and 4 PM, as being completely separate from the other almost as if they were being played on different days. Why do this you ask? Well, it's meant to help limit the number of games to choose from thereby allowing you to narrow your focus and more easily pick out the specific games that appeal to you. Just like anything else, when you have a large number of options to choose from, it can be information overload for many folks. As a result, it causes confusion and makes clear and informed decisions that much more difficult. For instance, using the example games pictured above, you may have leans or thoughts on all circled teams. You begin your due diligence for each which includes reading articles, studying trends, and analyzing statistics. You might read an NFL expert's opinion in your team's favor and take it under consideration. Then you might see a trend that points to the opposite. Finally, the stats are telling you that in fact the two teams are on a pretty level playing ground making you think you should stay away from the game entirely. Now imagine having all those thoughts running through your head for each matchup every week. That can be quite time consuming, stressful, and confusing, right?

So wouldn't picking between fewer games help you more easily contemplate all that information since your brain isn't so cluttered? Put simply, the more games to consider at one time, the more difficult it is to properly and clearly think through all the different aspects of a given matchup. Something as simple as breaking down the week's schedule into halves may free your mind to consider something you might not normally have thought of or you might have otherwise forgotten all together. Things like is a West Coast team playing on the East Coast at a time that would normally be early in the morning for them or will the weather be a factor for a particular game and might it have an affect on the over/under? 

Once you've split the day's games into two, scan the first set of games and circle the matchups that stick out to you initially. Do the same for the later games. Then, go back to the ones you circled and using your normal process of research and analysis eliminate the games that don't fall within your criteria for actually placing a bet. A general rule of thumb to abide by is to end up with 1-2 games in the first and 1-2 games in the second set of games. So if you've circled 3-4 games total, based on your research, you should end up with your absolute favorite 1 or 2. Obviously exceptions can be made, but you don't want to stray too far from this each week. There may be certain times where it calls for an additional play or two based on your research. That is fine, but when you factor in proper money management, you definitely don't want to be risking so much all at once. Granted, there are many more games each Saturday in CFB, but all these same principles can and should be applied.  

This may seem overly simplistic or unnecessary, but you'd be surprised by how easily and quickly you can get carried away by looking over the matchups repeatedly and thinking about how each game is worth betting. Having a process and the discipline to follow that process will not only help you save time and money, but it will also go a long way in terms of maximizing value and providing the greatest return on your investments.

— theCalculatedGambler 

...for some FOOTBALL?!?! Yes, it's that time once again folks. Christmas has come early for us football fans. With the first full slate of CFB games kicking off today and the Ravens and Broncos getting it started in the NFL next Thursday, football is officially back in all its glory and pageantry.

With it brings plenty of excitement and why shouldn't it? After all, fans get to participate in a number of different football related activities from numerous fantasy drafts to hours of tailgating and parties where family and friends can gather together to watch their hometown team. Throw in body rattling tackles, mind blowing catches, and long distance sprints to the end zone and we are reminded why we all love the fast paced and bone jarring action this sport has to offer, undoubtedly always leaving us wanting more. 

At the same time, let's not forget the beginning of the college and NFL seasons also signals the chance for people to partake in one other activity, more specifically wagering on football. It is arguably more popular than the rest and it consistently attracts a massive amount of bettors every year, professional and recreational alike. Particularly for the amateur bettors, it’s extra appealing because they can potentially win money while still rooting for their favorite team making the experience all the sweeter. The thrills are endless. Pure joy and utter disappointment takes effect with each successive play while constant nail biting and tense sweating is not out of the norm for many. As anyone who has ever bet on a game could tell you, it might be the end of the world one moment, completely writing off your wager as a loss. Then, only to see your team come through to ease your nerves and brighten your outlook on life, at least temporarily, because it could instantly flip back in the other direction. The constant ebb and flow can surely drive a mad man insane as they say. Yet, that's why people love it and why they continue to flood the sportsbooks throughout Vegas. They just can't get enough of that sweet torture.

On the other hand, for the professional handicapper or bettor, the pleasure acquired from investing their money on these games is much different. I will go more into that in a moment, but, first, let's take a look at what it actually means to be a professional gambler. This term seems to be loosely thrown around quite a bit so hopefully the following definition will provide a clearer picture. Many people mistakenly think that if you play in the big buy-in poker tournaments and high stakes cash games or bet a large sum of money on a game then that automatically makes you a professional. In reality, to be considered a pro a couple things must happen. One is that gambling should be a person’s main source of income. Second, a person must spend the majority of time honing the necessary skills and performing the regular tasks and duties involved with poker, sports betting, horse racing, etc. mirroring what any other person would do in a normal job. 

Now, just because someone gambles full time does not indicate whether that person can survive in this industry. There are many other important attributes that dictate whether one succeeds in this volatile world. I refer back to the word I mentioned earlier, investing. This is a key term to remember because ultimately a professional’s goal is driven by the dollar and nothing else. Any semblance of a wager based on one’s affinity for a particular team is nonexistent. That’s not to say there is no emotion involved. In fact, that’s not the case at all. A lot of money is usually on the line, likely thousands at a time, meaning there is obviously and literally a lot at stake. Because of that, it is quite simply human nature for people to ride the emotional roller coaster that a sporting event takes you on just like anyone else. However, what the professional knows and understands and what differentiates them from every other person who approaches a ticket window is that they realize each win and loss is just a step forward or backward toward their larger financial objective. Being able to wipe the slate clean each day or week and not let a previous game's outcome have a carry over affect on future decision making is crucial to their success.

On top of that, investors look at their financial commitment based on sound reasoning and analysis. Every game they decide to play or each decision they make at the poker table is calculated and measured just as a stock broker’s would. They wouldn't put money into a stock if a company has a bleak outlook or doesn't project to have a good return on their investment. Well, the same goes for any successful gambler. Each has developed their own methods and techniques which is unique to each individual so it would not be prudent to go into that here. Just know that they perform extensive research studying and breaking down statistics, trends, video, and matchups. Any information they can dig up such as an injury alert, a change to a team’s lineup, or even information on a player’s psyche helps them to gain any advantage possible. Besides, there is so much information available to us on the internet and otherwise these days, it would be silly not to take advantage of these valuable resources. 

For the sake of length here, I will save the time and money management principles for another post. However, I want to make it a point to call those out because they have just as much to do with anyone’s long term success as everything previously noted. They all work hand in hand and it is important to focus on all aspects. Hey, no one said it would be easy, but given more time and experience, if you actively try to apply what we've discussed, practice patience, and stay disciplined you should eventually start to see positive results and be well on your way to lining those pockets.

  — theCalculatedGambler 

...,everyone dreams of it happening. It's why countless people buy lottery tickets hoping to match their numbers to the spinning ping pong balls, endlessly pull the handles on slot machines waiting for that huge jackpot, or invest in stocks looking for the next Apple or Google. Despite the long odds for success, it's still the #1 reason millions of people continue to flock to Vegas and casinos every year throughout the world...hoping to hit it BIG.

Why is it so difficult to achieve this elusive goal? Likewise, finding even periodic success let alone maintaining any sort of consistent measure of winning over an extended period of time appears unattainable. To someone who only holds a marginal level of understanding or views gambling through a very narrow window, the answer seems simple. For table games or sports betting, he/she might say, “No one can win at these games, at least not long term,” because “the odds are skewed in the house/sports book’s favor.” With poker, a game where the house has no influence on the outcome, other detractors might say, “It’s all just luck. That’s the only way people can win.” Of course there is some truth to those statements. You would be foolish to ignore or disregard the inherent advantage that the casino and odds makers built into those games. And there’s no denying luck is and always will be a part of poker. The turn of the next card could very well determine whether someone wins or loses while players are helpless unable to affect this uncontrollable event.

Nonetheless, I’m here to say, not so fast. If these folks were 100% accurate in their assessment, then explain the existence of those who are completely reliant upon such unreliable sources as their sole means of income and survival. If the games were designed to never allow anyone to come out on top and all of it was based on luck, then how do some thrive and flourish in this environment? There are plenty of examples out there of well known gamblers such as Johnny Chan who went from complete obscurity to one of the biggest names in poker.

He wasn't a one hit wonder either. He has sustained his success over many years, now 56, starting from when he moved to Las Vegas to gamble professionally at the age of 21. Now, I’m not saying that everyone who possesses the skills and know how will turn out to be millionaires because that’s not realistic and simply untrue. Those individuals are definitely fewer in number. However, there are people I've personally spent time with and played alongside that aren't your household names and you wouldn't be able to tell the apart from any other person on the street, but they live quite comfortably while gambling for a living. They are the ones that most closely resemble the general gambling population and who provide a map to this career and lifestyle.

What’s important to remember is that luck and unfavorable odds only make up a portion of the larger picture and are hardly the deciding factors when it comes to winning and doing so consistently. There are other critical aspects that must be taken into account. Some of these are normally common sense tactics that should and could be done on a regular basis such as setting goals, being disciplined enough to recognize streaks and trends, then capitalizing on those upswings or minimizing the damage on the downturns, and understanding time and money management principles, just to name a few. Unfortunately for most, these qualities are often under utilized or overlooked all together. Of course, it should go without saying, but to be absolutely clear and limit confusion, it is also a requirement that one be able to grasp basic game play strategy, understand the corresponding concepts, and puts in the time to perform the necessary research especially when it comes to something like sports betting. However, I would argue that the latter would fall lower on the list of things to master compared to the practical skills noted earlier. More sophisticated game knowledge and strategy will come with time and repetition. Focus on being diligent and disciplined in the other capacities and the sky is really the limit.

As we move along, you’ll see that we've really only touched the tip of the iceberg. I plan on expanding on each of these pieces in separate posts, but I wanted to emphasize that not only is it possible to succeed at gambling, but there also is a framework for how you could begin your ascent toward the level of professionals like Johnny Chan and other established gamblers. Hopefully, these insights will act as the building blocks for a solid foundation of future success.

  —- theCalculatedGambler 

...to theCalculatedGambler's official blog!!

Now I know what you’re thinking. Seeing the name of this blog you’re probably thinking, here is some schmuck trying to brag about his gobs of money or incredible exploits while looking for some attention from anyone willing to give it. On top of that, you’re probably saying to yourself, what the hell does this guy know and why should I listen to anything he’s saying?

Well, I don’t blame you. I’d probably be skeptical too. A lot of people simply seek to boost their own egos. However, I’m NOT one of them. The purpose of this forum is purely meant to educate, teach, and assist anyone who might be looking for some useful knowledge or a different perspective. Perhaps you’re an experienced poker player who can’t seem to get over that proverbial hump and it is the difference between you being an above average player and a great one. Or maybe you’re an avid sports bettor and sports aficionado, but you can’t figure out why you’re not able to make any money consistently despite knowing a ton about sports and betting. Everything that will be discussed over the coming days/weeks/months is meant to either help you through those difficult hurdles or get you headed toward what is hopefully a successful run. Based on what I have learned through my past experiences, both good and bad, I hope to convey alternative ways to look at situations that might not have been considered or fully flushed out previously. Overall, my goal is to help you understand and approach the world of gambling in a more positive and productive manner because, as those who have tried before know, it is a very daunting hill to climb mentally, emotionally, and even physically. All I ask is that you have an open mind and allow me the opportunity to share my thoughts. Hopefully, along the way, my experiences might be able to shed some light on the very private worlds of poker, sports betting, and gambling (particularly black jack and craps) in general.

***DISCLAIMER —- This will NOT be a quick fix or an easy way to make a large amount of money instantly. I am also NOT advocating gambling. I am simply doing this to be a resource for those who may need some clarity, may be missing some aspect to his/her strategy, or even someone who is a complete beginner and would simply like to have the tools to increase the chances of winning. THIS IS MEANT TO BE INFORMATIONAL AND A HELPFUL GUIDE ONLY.***

Think of me as a coach, mentor, or guide to pushing the odds a little more in your favor. I’ve been involved in this scene for quite some time and I have a lot to share. It is my goal to enlighten and hopefully educate because I had to learn much of what I know now the hard way. It would have been a tremendous asset to have an outline on what to do/not do, how to act/think, or ways to be put in the best position to succeed. What’s more, the vast majority of people are only aware of the glamorous and big money events depicted on TV or the dark and mysterious side to gambling. I’m here to open peoples’ eyes by providing information on a variety of topics including, but not limited to, how to approach things from a mental standpoint, the importance of discipline and money management, and what a gambler’s lifestyle is truly like. This blog will be an open book and everything is fair game. 

Finally, I know there will be some naysayers out there who will look to put me down or just like to cause trouble, but know that I am just a regular person like the rest of you who has made mistakes and has paid for them, literally. At the same time, I’ve also had my fair share of successes and big wins. It has all helped shape me into the person I am today. Hopefully, by sharing some of what I know, it will help prevent people from experiencing some of the same missteps and lead to better days along the way. Please try to keep things in here positive. Feel free to ask questions or leave comments. I’ll be more than happy to discuss anything and everything gambling related. As we move forward, you’ll see topics on pretty much everything, but if you have any suggestions for topics by all means let me know.

Let's get this started!

--- theCalculatedGambler

follow me on Twitter @theCalcGambler