#willglazing

Smith, Macklin Celebrini, Alex Wennberg, Sharks coach Ryan Warsofsky, NHL scouts, and Stathletes micro-stats explain how the No. 4 pick of the 2023 draft has improved.

“More assertive offensively,” Scout No. 1 said.

Everyone can see that Smith is more confident with the puck than he was last season, and the micro-stats back it up.

Zone Entries

Smith is creating a lot more offense on a typical 5-on-5 zone entry now.

According to Stathletes, he’s an 89 percentile expected threat among all NHL forwards on a zone entry now, far more dangerous than last year’s 65 percentile.

Entries xThreat are “expected goals created (from passing or carrying) off of zone entry attempts.”

“I think that's something that he's worked on and understands when he has time to make a play and when he doesn't, and he's got real good feel for that,” Warsofsky said.

“It's definitely intentional,” Smith said. “Last year was my first year playing wing, so you obviously don't get more puck touches coming through the middle, as you do as a center. So this year, I wanted to have more controlled entries.”

“We've seen it all year that he can make those plays off entries,” Warsofsky said. “He's done a really good job of, I think the game has probably slowed down for him to make those plays. His vision is elite.”

“It sets up a lot,” Smith said. “I think when you're delaying off a zone entry, it definitely creates more than just chipping it in. But there's a time and place for everything.”

Puck Carries

You don’t need to be a bull in a china shop to attack the most dangerous areas of ice.

The crafty 6-foot Smith is learning where and when to slip into the soft spots at 5-on-5.

“When you're in tight, you gotta get your head up and find where everyone is,” he said.

Smith is a 96 percentile forward in Slot Carries and 80 percentile in Inner Slot Carries, according to Stathletes, a much higher volume than last year’s 79 and 57 percentiles, respectively.

Because Smith isn’t the most physical of forwards, there’s a perception that he’s a perimeter player, which isn’t the case.

“You get a lot of offense just kind of within that five feet from the net,” Smith said. “A lot of goals come from there.”

Puck Recovery

More subtle, but still important, Smith is creating a lot more offense off 5-on-5 puck recoveries.

He’s a 77 percentile expected threat on a puck recovery now, a significant improvement from last year’s 41 percentile.

Recovery xThreat is “expected goals created by recovering loose pucks”

“When he's skating, he's engaged, that's when he's usually making plays,” Warsofsky said.

Shooting

Smith is sniffing out soft spots in the OZ like a truffle pig.

“Quiet, then finds open ice,” Scout No. 2 said.

He’s a 90 percentile in Slot Shots volume, a 51 percentile last year.

Part of that is getting lost in the offensive zone when his linemates are on the cycle: Smith is 94 percentile in xG on Cycle Shots, after being a 41 percentile forward last year.

“[Timing when you show] up in the slot is when you get the best chances,” Smith said.

These improvements, coupled with small gains in where Smith was already high-end at — last year, he was already close to a 90 percentile forward in Passing and Rush Offense — have led to a dramatically more dangerous attacker.

“His skill’s always gonna be there, he’s just getting a little more comfortable,” Celebrini said.

“Last year, you [could] see the skill he had and the awareness to make plays, but right now, I think he elevated it a little bit more,” Wennberg said. “His poise with the puck and his confidence with it.”

At the heart of this is Smith’s impeachable hockey IQ, which helps him process the game as quickly as his superstar center and best friend Celebrini.

“Their hockey sense is very similar as far as the way they see the ice and the way they see plays develop,” Warsofsky said. “The biggest thing is they see the ice well, and they can see plays develop before 90 percent of the league.”

“It's about how quick you can read the play, where you can be,” Wennberg said. “That's where I think [Smith’s] hockey IQ is just elite.”

Warsofsky admitted, “You could go through Mack and Will's shifts and show them video. And even if it's a mistake in my eyes, they can tell you what they were thinking and maybe what play they wanted to make, and then you can see it.”

“He's just more comfortable,” Celebrini said. “We're just more comfortable with each other. The more you're used to someone, the more you can play off them, the quicker decisions you can make.”

“They complement [each other] really well, just the way they play,” Wennberg said. “It's a perfect match, for sure.”

All this leads to a couple key Stathletes numbers: Smith leads all Sharks in Individual Expected Goals Per 60, in All Situations. This tells you that Smith is going to the danger areas.

And he’s 16th in the NHL with 1.91 High Danger Chances Per 60, which is a combination of high-danger scoring chance shots and assists.

That’s highest on the Sharks, and just behind great company like Leon Draisaitl, Nathan MacKinnon, Connor McDavid, Nikita Kucherov, and Kirill Kaprizov, to name a handful. Smith is just ahead of fellow young guns Cole Caulfield and Connor Bedard.

There’s still a lot, of course, to improve in his all-around game.

He’s a below-average defensive forward, according to Stathletes.

“Habits off the puck still not there,” Scout No. 1 said.

He needs to become stronger and quicker, both to evade pressure and improve puck protection. This will also help him become a more reliable puck transporter, from blueline to blueline.

But Smith is on the cusp of greatness.

“Second year is not always easy, a lot more pressure and expectations on you,” Wennberg said. “The way he's handling it and how he's been playing, it's been going really well.”