"What if you're wrong? Like you always are..."
So it turns out the REALLY important number about the Eclipse is...
35-60%
As in this description of the observational conditions that our dear friend DT at WXRISK.com gives us for the predicted Weather in and around Lexington SC for Monday during the times of the Eclipse.
"MARGINAL 35-60% of the time will overhead sky conditions feature good viewing conditions. There will be a few intervals of sun and no or few clouds around the sun but these intervals wont last long and will not be very common. This also means 40-65% of the time there will be clouds over the central portions of the sky that could cause several minutes (or longer) of interruptions for viewing the eclipse. " -- WXRISK.com
And as a side note: if you do not already follow WXRISK on Facebook, you really should. This guy is an agricultural meteorologist. That means, unlike the clowns on TV, if he screws up the forecast, he does not get paid. From his website:
"WxRisk was the only well-known private weather company that correctly forecasted the recent severe cold and stormy winter of 2013-14, in the central and eastern U.S. as well as the quiet below normal east coast hurricane season in 2013. Our forecast about hurricane Sandy striking the Southern NJ coast was issued on OCT 21, 2012, eight days before actual landfall – at a time when most other forecasts called for Sandy to head out to sea and even stated that “It is not possible for Sandy to strike the southern NJ coast”. During the winter of 2010-11, WxRisk forecasted the historic Christmas Day Blizzard (DEC25-26, 2010) that would drop 1 to 2 feet of snow from Norfolk VA, to NJ, NYC and SE Massachusetts while most other forecasts predicted less than 4 inches of snow." -- WXRisk.com
Is he perfect? Nope. But he is pretty good. I base almost all of my decisions about photography trips to Chincoteague, Pungo Lake or the NC Outer Banks on his forecasting and I have yet to see him be off my much. And when he is, it is usually he is off on the where something is happening not the what is happening.
SO imagine my disappointment when both DT and The Weather Underground are calling for significant cloud cover and possible rain/thunderstorms for the Lexington/Columbia area during the 4 hour window of the Eclipse. If I were just going down there to see the Eclipse and hang out, hey who cares if there are some clouds right. Pass me another beer! But when the goal is to get some really high quality photographs of various stages of the eclipse with a lot of camera gear, well...I am not so sure that it is going to happen. Matter of fact the viewing conditions as far as cloud cover and chance of thunderstorms are actually predicted to be better HERE than Lexington SC.
Hard decision. Lot of planning, some money spent on some specialized gear. But if we bail and stay here what are the Pluses?
Save about $1000 between accomidations, food, travel expense and maybe more if unknown incendentals occur. (Car issues, last minute gear damage to repair/replace.)
I get to skip the 3 hour drive down Sunday (probably more like 5 with the predicted traffic) and WHO KNOWS how long it would take to get back to Durham. One traffic planner I heard interviewed said you should take the average travel time, double it and add an hour. So a 7+ hour car ride back?
I get to sleep in my own bed. And I had already scoped out a few locations nearby prior to planning to go to Lexington. We here in Durham should be right at the 93% of totality line. Only 3 minutes less for the entire partial start to end. I will still be able to take some photos I have never had the opportunity to do before.
Am I disappointed. Yes. Very unique event with a lot of amazing photos to be had. But to be honest...relieved a bit. In the timeline I laid out of what to do when over the 12 minute window surrounding and including the totality, there were a LOT of things to do. And you got really one chance to do them right. Or not. I had sort of gotten a bit obsessed over the whole thing (hey a depressive with ADHD getting stuck on something. What a shock.) and had started to take it a bit too much like work and not fun. And I never want photography to feel like work. I fear I would walk away from it forever if it did for too long.
Reservations cancelled. Plan B locations set for scouting trips Saturday. I look forward to showing you the photos I take. I can not say that honestly about the ones I thought I would take in Lexington. Cause I feared that they might be failures. That should have been the first clue huh? When you cannot accept in your mind that an activity 'might not be so good an idea'.
Again. Get the kids, wake the neighbors, use a pair of NASA approved viewing glasses and have a good time watching the show. HEY...it happens again in 2024! That is only 7 years. I will only be....geez...ahh...never mind how old I will be. Damn.
Always, it ain't the camera. Sometimes it ain't even taking the picture. Just being there is the trick.
