#wasvsnyg

Ok so week 1 was pretty much the worst day I’ve had at this with at 50% (70% generally!).

I’ve added back Pick confidence to the predictions below which, as it says, shows my conviction in the pick. Anything 70% and above and I am pretty confident.

Washington 20 Giants 16

Spread: Washington -3

Pick confidence: 65%

Washington, without Fitzpatrick for the foreseeable future, only narrowly lost out to the Chargers on Sunday with Taylor Heinicke under center for a large part. The win came down to Justin Herbert who made 3 completions of more than 15 yards on 3rd down. Who has the confidence that Daniel Jones can do the same? I do not. The Washington defense lead by Chase Young, should do enough to make sure the offense can stumble through this one. If ever there was a quarterback to get after and generate turnovers then it is Jones. In 28 games he has put the ball on the ground 30 times, losing 18 of those, including one that effectively ended the Giants hopes last weekend. Not to mention 22 interceptions. This has the potential to get ugly. The Giants will view this as one of the more winnable games on their schedule, and if they don’t turn the ball over then they certainly have a chance. Barkley needs to get going yesterday to relieve the pressure on Jones and be the dual threat we know he can be. Coming of limited snaps in week 1 that might be a lot to ask this early in the season. I’m banking on a defensive TD from Washington in this one. Fantasy starts on a Thursday can be dicey but I would have confidence in the Washington D.

Steelers 26 Raiders 23

Spread: Steelers -6

Pick confidence: 60%

I was sooooo close to picking the Steelers last weekend. I wasn’t bought in to the overblown stories of their demise given they have a great defense, good skill position players and veteran Superbowl winning QB. That was all mostly on display last Sunday, although it did take the offense until the second half to warm up. The Steeler’s D did a number on Josh Allen and the much hyped Bills offense, we might just see how good that performance was when Allen and Co light up opposition in the coming weeks. It doesn’t bode well for a Raiders team that thrive on deep shots, and lots of them (19 targets in week 1!), to Darren Waller, the Steeler’s secondary, with Fitzpatrick over the middle, will not allow so many shots to land. For the Raiders to win this one the pass rush that showed plenty of life with Maxx Crosby will need to get pressure on Big Ben. On the flip side, Pittsburgh needs to get more out of the run game, it was their biggest failing last year and only racking up 75 yards on the ground in week 1 didn’t suggest a huge improvement. In the end I think the Steeler’s D is the difference making unit in this matchup. I’m not sure the offense is yet in the kind of form that will cover the spread here though.

Eagles 24 49ers 27

Spread: 49ers -3

Pick confidence: 60%

This is a hard matchup to predict. Surprisingly Jimmy G and the 9ers had the highest yards per pass attempt at 12.3 in week 1. The Eagles allowed the lowest yards per pass attempt at 4.7. The Eagles did give up 124 on the ground to an Atlanta team who does not rack up rushing yards as a habit. The 49ers however do love to run the ball and always find creative ways to do so, regardless of who is running the football. Eli Mitchell anyone? Yeah I picked him up on waivers, and of course Hasty is going to start, typical. The 9ers gave up a lot of yards to Detroit but that was a lot to do with running up a huge lead. Goff threw the ball 58 times! This was at a clip of 5.9 yards per attempt. If you have a team in desperation mode from before the half you are going to give up yards, and points, at the NFL level. The loss of Jason Verrett is a massive blow for this 49ers secondary and has impacted the above prediction to make a closer game. The ground game should be the strength of this Eagles team though and the 9ers will need to play better on the defensive line than they did a week ago. In match ups this close I tend to look at QBs and strengths/weaknesses. The 9ers look to be able to run on the Eagles, allowing them to execute their game plan. The Eagles will also have a run first game plan that should provide results in this game too, it then comes down to which passer is best placed to take advantage of the run game? I’m rooting for Hurts to become the unquestioned QB1 of this Eagles team for the foreseeable but with up and down tape from last year I have to go with the more seasoned QB until the consistent performances come. This game could go either way quite easily, if Hurts performs like he did last week then Eagles likely win this game given the injuries hitting the 9ers.

Browns 30 Texans 17

Spread: Browns -13

Pick confidence: 95%

The Texans may have been the biggest surprise package of week 1, perhaps not because they beat the Jags but by the fact they did so putting up points on offense and creating turnovers on defense. I wouldn’t get carried away thinking the Texans are going to be a season long surprise package, most teams are not the Jags. We will see exactly how bad the Jags are in the coming weeks. This Browns team is on the opposite end of the spectrum to the Jags, they gave the Superbowl favourites all they could handle without taking the win in week 1. I think the Texans come back down to earth this week, they have an offense that’s ceiling is as high as Tyrod Taylor’s talent can go and a defense that is likely mediocre at best. The likelihood is this squad will struggle to win 5 games, at a stretch. The Browns have far too much talent in this matchup, on both sides of the ball so not one to overthink. The Texans still gave up 319 yards and 3 TDs to a rookie so you would expect Baker Mayfield to take advantage of this defense, especially after a heavy dose of Chubb and Hunt.

Jaguars 13 Broncos 24

Spread: Broncos -5.5

Pick confidence: 60%

The Jags really staked their claim early for the worst record in football. The defense let Tyrod Taylor go off for 291 passing yards, his best near full season as starter saw him average 217 per game. The Jags also gave up 160 on the ground to a group of running backs, albeit with talent, but who have bounced from team to team and could at this point be considered journeymen. This is not a good look, nor is 4 turnovers on offense. This is the kind of outing that rings 0-17 alarm bells. The Jags have to protect the ball to give their defense a fighting chance, running the ball effectively has never been more important for this team. The Broncos only gave 60 on the ground to the Giants in week 1 so will not be the easiest unit to get the ground game going against. If the Jags have to rely on Trevor Lawrence to win games this early in the season it will inevitably end with an L. The Broncos were efficient under Teddy Bridgewater on offense and I expect similar this week, even against a bad Jags defense I don’t expect the Broncos to light it up. I do expect them to methodically pick apart this unit and consistently put points up on the board. Look for Courtland Sutton to pick up the targets vacated by Jeudy’s absence as he works back from injury. Again, one not to overthink until the Jags show us a reason to consider otherwise

Panthers 20 Saints 28

Spread: Saints -3.5

Pick confidence: 80%

The Saints managed to do something that Jameis Winston has not seen in his years as a starter, a team that can pound the rock. Not necessarily in the conventional, Derrick Henry sense though. The Saints racked up 171 yards on the ground, putting Winston in the position to pick apart a Packers defense that was forced to consider him the number two threat. This type of attack will nullify the strength of the Panthers D. As impressive as the win was the Saints came out of it seriously beat up, especially on defense. The loss of star cornerback Marshon Lattimore and edge rusher Marcus Davenport will take some teeth out of this unit. For this week at least I think the Saints can survive those losses against the Panthers, while Christian McCaffrey will no doubt keep the Panthers chains moving I am not convinced Darnold is yet the one to cap drives with scores regularly enough to outpace this Saints offense. The Saints were clinical offensively against the Packers but the Panthers were not against the Jets. I know which one is more impressive. I like the spread here, although the defensive losses for the Saints make me slightly more nervous. Kamara and McCaffrey going head to head should be great.

Colts 17 Rams 27

Spread: Rams -3.5

Pick confidence: 85%

I actually do not see this game being as close as my prediction suggests, and yes it is not that close anyway. Give the Colts some 4th quarter points to make this score more respectable while the Rams take their foot of the gas. I am VERY high on this Rams team since the acquisition of Matthew Stafford, see my division previews for the season. Nothing that happened in week 1 did anything to shake that confidence. Stafford easily put up 321 yards passing and 3 TDs in a game that was not close in the second half. This week he faces a Colts secondary that just allowed 4 TDs and 11 yards per attempt to Russel Wilson and the Seahawks. Throw in 140 yards on the ground and you can only see the Rams replicating that kind of production against this Colts D. On the other side of the ball, a questionable Colts O-line will have it’s hands full with this Rams front lead by Aaron Donald. His quiet week 1 stats sheet does not tell the story of the tape, he was a force as always. Wentz was surprisingly spry in last weeks opener, he may need to be in this one if the Colts are going to make this competitive. I don’t know that the Colts have the weapons on the outside to threaten Ramsey and co in this matchup. Yes Zach Pascal hauled in 2 TDs but this Rams outfit is not the Seahawks. It would not surprise me if this is the game we see flashbacks of bad Carson Wentz, likely he will need to force plays to stay in the game, or hold the ball too long, either way turnovers likely follow. The spread in this one is one I am taking ALL day long.

Dolphins 20 Bills 23

Spread: Bills -3.5

Pick confidence: 70%

As a Dolphins fan I am still surprised when we win games at the moment. The team has plenty of talent on both sides of the ball with a ball-hawking defense led by Xavien Howard and a set of skill position players in Waddle, Parker, Gesicki and Gaskin that should cause plenty of problems to opposing defenses. That really leaves just quarterback as the reason for my surprise, I don’t feel confident that we can march down the field and score. We need to rely on field position and short fields to overcome limited play from the games most important position. I imagine this is what Bills felt during Allen’s first two seasons! Need to see more from Tua before I pick with him against top tier opposition. The Bill struggled mightily last week, but if they can lean on the run game here, an area the Patriots had success then they should be able to put enough points on this defense to see this one out. Singletary might be the difference maker in this game, with some Josh Allen lasers mixed in.

Jets 10 Patriots 26

Spread: Patriots -6.5

Pick confidence: 90%

I found the Dolphins game a very strange game to watch as a long time Dolphins fan. It was like watching the Patriots you grew to despise and respect at the same time. The 2nd and 6 you knew one way or another would be converted, whether it was in one 7 yard play or two 3 and 4 yard plays. The defense allowed you to move the ball but suddenly stiffened once it came time to put the points on the board. Then the Patriots lost. The matriculating offense and bend but don’t break defense that served the organisation so well seemed to be there but without it’s teeth. Mac Jones is not Tom Brady, and I don’t think anyone is confusing the two, but the game plan is similar, the pieces have changed and in time I fear the Patriots machine will resurface. It didn’t last weekend, uncharacteristic fumbles and miscues costing the W. The Fins are a different proposition to the Jets though. A gun shy Tua is one thing, a not gun shy Wilson may fall prey to the Belichick treatment that had Sam Darnold seeing ghosts. This feels like a game where the Patriots D does the work and the offense does it’s thing without needing fireworks. I expect turnovers from this Patriots defense, going on a limb I’m going to call a defensive score here. I haven’t spoken much about the Jets but until they provide any meaningful support to their starting quarterback, on offense or defense it feels a little pointless.

Bears 23 Bengals 24

Spread: Bears -2

Pick confidence: 51%

This is a tough one to call. The Bengals barely overcame a Vikings squad that did not bring it’s A game. The ears hung with the Rams for a half then were put away with some ease after that. An Andy Dalton led offense these days has a ceiling, and not a high one. The sooner the keys are handed to Justin Fields, the sooner the Bears become a much more interesting proposition, with a higher ceiling. The Bengals offense will continue to press all game, and with the balance they showed last week should be able to take advantage of this Bears defense enough times to ensure that Bears ceiling is not a problem. The concern here is the Bears front vs the Bengals offensive line. If the offensive line holds up then the Bengals have more talent on offense to take this matchup vs a Dalton led Bears team. How long will the Dalton rope be though? In truth this game could go either way and may be determined by in game changes, Fields, or individual performances, Khalil Mack? My prediction reflects the ceiling imposed on this Bears team by the coaching staff.

Buccaneers 42 Falcons 24

Spread: Buccaneers -12.5

Pick confidence: 95%

The first 40 point prediction of the year! There don’t tend to be many. Seeing what the Eagles did to this Falcons defense must have Brady chomping at the bit to get out there on Sunday. The Bucs offense looked sharp against the Cowboys with Antonio Brown looking like the guy who dominated the league for so long, and Gronk balling out like he was in his prime. Those two accounted for 3 scores and they are not even in the top two weapons on this team. Likely Brady gets all day to pick apart this Falcons secondary given the D-line are not likely to generate pressure, move Brady off the spot or force the ball out off schedule. This game basically has the highest pick confidence I will give, I’m still a believer that this Falcons offense will score plenty of points over the course of the year, even after they shat the bed in week 1. I wouldn’t even rule out a high scoring game that puts the spread in jeopardy. There just is not enough defensively for the Falcons for me to make a case that this game is anything other than a comfortable Bucs win.

Cardinals 30 Vikings 20

Spread: Cardinals -3.5

Pick confidence: 75%

Ah the Cardinals. I said in last weeks picks that a Cards win would be no surprise over a favoured Titans team, based on pure talent alone. I do still want to see consistency from Arizona but on gut feel watching the game last weekend I think this team is here to compete consistently this year. Murray won’t account for 5 TDs every week, nor will Chandler Jones account for 5 sacks every week, but those are both examples of exceptional production and the upper limits for this team. DeAndre Hopkins statistically took the second half off last week, a good sign for the team if not for fantasy owners as Murray spread the ball around and warmed up the other weapons this team has. I’m not sure the dizzying heights of last week are in store but this offense will be productive against a fairly good Vikings defensive unit. On the other side, the Vikings sputtering offense will find it’s feet with too much talent not to. It may not be this week against a team who can pressure the QB and tackle well on the back end. A defensive score for the Cardinals would not surprise me in this one, I feel confident about the spread in the Cardinals favour here. My pick confidence would be higher if I still didn’t have the nagging consistency worry around this Cardinals team. The Lions, they lost to the Lions in week 2 last year.

Seahawks 27 Titans 24

Spread: Seahawks -6

Pick confidence: 60%

Russell Wilson only attempted 23 passes in week 1, but still racked up 254 yards and 4 TDs. The ground game went off for 140 yards on 27 carries, good enough for 5.2 a carry and tied third best rate in the league. That kind of balance with Wilson’s talent and deep ball prowess is the stuff of dreams for Pete Carroll and the Seahawks fans. It also bodes well against a Titans team who could not defend either in week 1 against a mobile quarterback chucking it deep. On all evidence from last week this game should be a Seahawks win and move on. This Titans team just has too much offensive talent to be held down. Derrick Henry’s best performances often come immediately after his worst. We are talking like 200 yard performances here as well. Not suggesting that is realistic, or that I think he is going to hit that mark, but he will be better and the coaching staff will ensure he gets his opportunity. You bet Julio Jones worked out the week 1 issues and miscues this week. I expect a different Titans offense to show up. However an anaemic pass rush isn’t going to get it done against Russell Wilson, who even after taking 3 sacks in week 1 on 23 attempts will have enough time to do damage. The improved Seahawks defense looks more equipped to put Tannehill under duress and force a mistake that might just be the difference in this game. Like the spread here, not often you will get a shot at Tennessee +6, against a team that generally lives in the realm of dramatic finishes.

Chargers 28 Cowboys 31

Spread: Chargers -3.5

Pick confidence: 51%

This pick is honestly more a gut feel pick than it is based on anything tangible. As noted above the Chargers win came down to Justin Herbert who made 3 completions of more than 15 yards on 3rd down in crucial spots in the game. That was against a Washington D led by Chase Young and a talented group of pass rushers. The Cowboys just lost Demarcus Lawrence and Randy Gregory for this game (and more in the case of Lawrence) so where will the pressure on Herbert come from? Trevon Diggs played well against Mike Evans last week and may stymie some of the Chargers wideouts but he won’t cover Keenan Allen on third down. Can anyone? Th LA defense is stout and looked good last week, but the Bucs D is stout and Dak pretty much had his way there. This may be a bit of a shootout and with nothing but a feeling this falls to the Cowboys I’ll not linger here any longer before I change to the more sensible pick…..

Ravens 24 Chiefs 30

Spread: Chiefs -3.5

Pick confidence: 75%

There are two great QB talents taking the field here on Sunday, but for me there is a chasm between them. Mahomes is a generational talent at the position, very much a player able to play from the pocket but with a possibly unseen before talent to play from just about anywhere else a QB can find themselves. The wow moments never stop coming and with one Superbowl ring under his belt already no one is betting against there being more. Jackson on the other hand, is not your prototypical QB and his strength lies in his legs, speed and athleticism. He can play from the pocket but is not in the same league in that regard as Mahomes. For me the difference always plays out in these big games, and as you have seen in Raven’s playoff games with Jackson. The number of QBs who’s strength lies in their running ability, who have chalked up a Superbowl win in the era of ultra athletic, dual threat QBs is none. QB mastery from the pocket still rules. I actually really like Jackson and he alone almost swayed me from the above belief last season as I almost bought in to a Ravens playoff run going into the business end of the season. The Ravens D let the Raiders skill position players go wild after starting strong. This is a different set of skill position players on the Chiefs team, a better set so I don’t see the Ravens slowing the Chiefs enough to allow Jackson and a sputtering supporting run game to take over this matchup.

Packers 35 Lions 24

Spread: Packers -11.5

Pick confidence: 60%

Kyle Allen 16-21 151 yards 1 TD 1 Int