Russia’s flagship news broadcast is a rare window into Kremlin thinking — which is becoming muddier as the war drags on.
During the Cold War, Western observers in search of clues about changes in the Soviet hierarchy would note which members of the Politburo were standing closest to Stalin, Khrushchev, Brezhnev, (or whoever) at Lenin’s tomb as the leadership reviewed the troops at Soviet military parades in Red Square.
Nowadays Kremlinologists are trying to glean information by watching Russian state-run TV.
Now that Russian President Vladimir Putin has eliminated the last vestiges of independent media in Russia, the evening news broadcast "Vremya" on Channel One — Russia’s main state TV channel — is once again one of the few ways to peek inside the Kremlin.
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I’ve turned back to monitoring Vremya every night at 9 p.m. Moscow time. I’ve been watching it frame by frame — not so much for signals of what’s happening in Ukraine, but for what is becoming of Russia.
That’s Lawrence Scott Sheets who is a former diplomat and journalist who now heads Eurasian International Analytics.
Mr. Sheets is a keen and practiced observer. He notes seven ways in which messaging inside Russia has changed since the start of the invasion. Two of them are particularly interesting.
2. Putin’s top advisers have vanished.
Most nights, Putin is shown conferring with his advisers, who appear on a bank of TV monitors in front of him, with no advisers present. But on Tuesday, for instance, not a single member of Russia’s National Security Council was shown on the bank of TV monitors in whatever bunker Putin is holed up in. All of them seem to have either taken impromptu vacations — or simply been banished. The last time there was any fresh footage of Putin’s Cabinet ministers was last Saturday.
This includes Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, who previously had been prominently featured on state TV. Shoigu, who has always come across as very level-headed, has been absent for days. This may suggest that he is being set up to be a scapegoat, if and when Putin needs one.
Has Putin cancelled them or is he just becoming a hog for the spotlight? Given the poor performance of Russia’s military, Defense Minister Shoigu would be a very convenient scapegoat. But so would be the Russian intelligence agencies which told Putin only what he wanted to hear.
7. Putin doesn’t look well.
Many observers have noted that Putin looks puffy and unwell. On Wednesday there was an episode that also suggested that Putin is off his game — about 20 minutes into his speech, his language deteriorated into a ramble. He searched for words, repeating a term roughly similar to “you know.” It then became a diatribe, punctuated with uneasy pauses, even poor use of Russian, full of unnecessary conjunctions and jargon. The clip of Putin’s speech that was posted later on YouTube edited out this section of the broadcast.
Frankly, Putin wasn’t looking great on the eve of the invasion. Presumably Mr. Sheets thinks he’s looking even worse now.
Several observers including Finland’s president noticed a change in Putin in late 2021. It’s possible Putin came down with something around that time. Look at those super-long tables and oversized rooms he has been using for in-person meetings this year. It may be Putin’s paranoia but it could also be a sign of serious illness.
If Putin is sick then that’s something he’d want to keep secret; his extreme social distancing keeps others from making close observations of him. If you can’t get nearer than 5 meters to Putin then it’s more difficult to draw any conclusions about the state of his health.
