#varys

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Hard to say. On the one hand, Varys sure did have a whole end-to-end escape route lined up on very short notice, from Tyrion's cell right to Illyrio's manse. It's the ship connection that's more interesting to me than the tunnels - it requires more logistical coordination, which takes more time in a society without even telegraph lines. It's not as though Varys can call a rideshare service or bundle Tyrion anonymously onto a train. Ships might be coming in and out of King's Landing regularly, the King's Landing-Pentos route might be one of the most common shipping lanes in the area full stop, but Varys still needs a reasonably trustworthy captain.

Of course, it's also part of Varys' job to be able to do this sort of thing. If anyone could get Tyrion out of the dungeons and headed to the Free Cities with only half a day to plan, it's Varys. That's exactly why Jaime outsourced that aspect of the plan to him. It doesn't necessarily speak to Varys having a route lined up for Tyrion specifically in advance. It's just consistent with the theory.

On the other hand, the fact that Tyrion's in that cell, awaiting execution for regicide, means freeing him is very high risk for Varys. I think faking Tyrion's death would be a very hard sell, while an obvious escape raises different red flags. As we see in AFFC, freeing Tyrion in such a way means that Varys is an immediate and very obvious co-conspirator. He has to leave his position, forfeiting his ability to feed curated information directly to Cersei (and other functionaries) and forgoing his invites to high-level political meetings just when the regime's going to be making some important decisions that will affect how they respond to Aegon.

I doubt it would have been option one, or option two. It would have been a numbered option though. Probably option three or option four.

Varys can see as well as anyone else in the Red Keep that Tyrion is unpopular. Not just with the general population of King's Landing but within his own family. In ASoS Tyrion is marginalised politically within the regime; the danger for Varys would be that Tywin held his nose long enough to make good use of Tyrion as Master of Coin. Especially if Tywin came to that conclusion because he has to ship Cersei off somewhere she can't do much damage, and he needs at least one kid to be present and competent.

But Varys is also aware of Tyrion's relationship with Shae. That relationship is a very convenient lever to keep Tyrion distracted and, if needed, it could be revealed for whatever political consequences to Tyrion (and whatever other consequences to Shae, none of which are going to be fair, some of which could be lethal).

Varys knows Tyrion's got severely mixed feelings about his family and identified him as a potential recruit. Giving Tyrion the Ser Barristan treatment has got to be the preferred option even if Joffrey wasn't murdered when he was. Next best after recruiting him is disgracing Tyrion and getting him sent away; he can be recruited or used later in life that way, and in the short term he won't be there managing the accounts for the Lannisters.