#tootblan database

How much do TOOTBLANs hurt a team? Does the risk of aggressive baserunning outweigh reward? Or vice versa?

Rockies fans are having that conversation in light of the team's hot start coupled with a league-leading 15 16 TOOTBLANs through the month of April.

Note: the Rockies actually have at least 16. I missed one on April 23, but I'm not going back to do the math on that one.

They asked us to take a look at the Rockies' Win Probability Added (or in this case Subtracted) for each of the team's on-base non-force outs this year (excluding caught stealing).

We ran each game situation before and after the Rockies' TOOTBLAN through the Hardball Times' Win Probability Inquirer to show the team's win probability before and after the out. The chart below includes the results, along with the game situation (inning, outs, base runners), score and the final result of the game.

For example, before EYJr's pickoff in the third on the 28th, the Rockies had a 52.1 percent chance of winning. After? 47.7 percent.

Interestingly, the back-to-back outs by Cuddyer and Rosario in the eighth inning of the April 27 game were particularly damaging. Before they started, the Rockies had a win probability of 66.7 percent, which dropped to 39.3 percent after Rosario was doubled off.

This, of course, only looks at TOOTBLANs in a vacuum, for one team in one month - and no inferences should be drawn without looking at the bigger picture for the team's baserunning approach.

A note on methodology: The win probability for pre- and post-TOOTBLAN took into account what the situation would have been had the out not occurred and then compared it with the actual result of the play, making informed suppositions about where the runners would have ended up. This is our first spin through Win Probability, so any advice and/or ideas is appreciated.

Eric Young Jr. went 3-for-4 for the Rockies on Sunday, raising his on-base percentage from .319 to .342.

That’s the good news.

The bad? He made an out on the basepaths two of the three times he got on base in the 4-2 loss to the Diamondbacks.

In the first inning, Young doubled to right. After Dexter Fowler struck out, Young made an out on a fielder’s choice at third on a Troy Tulowitzki groundout to the shortstop. That’s a TOOTBLAN, given the open base (Tulowitzki was subsequently thrown out at home to end the inning (and earn the Rockies another TOOTBLAN).

In the third, Young again doubled to right. He was promptly picked off second (and thrown out at third). TOOTLBAN No. 2 on the day.

These were the MLB-leading fourth and fifth TOOTBLANs of the year for Young. His earlier TOOTBLANs were a fielder’s choice at home and two pickoffs at first.

All of this means his Young’s adjusted on-base percentage is significantly lower than his .342 OBP. Subtracting Young’s on-base outs (three pickoffs, two fielder’s choice and another caught stealing) puts his adjusted OBP (aOBP) at an anemic .260.

On-base outs are an expected part of the game; there were 13 on Sunday alone – and 259 in baseball this year already. And more will come on teams with a lot of baserunners and/or on teams that are more aggressive on the basepaths.

But, for better or worse, Young is making more on-base outs than anybody right now.

Here are the league leaders:

5: Eric Young Jr.

4: Manny Machado. Pablo Sandoval.

From the TOOTBLAN Tracker research department ...

The Pittsburgh Pirates have put up more than an early-season winning record; they also lead the league in TOOTBLAN differential, according to numbers pulled from the TOOTBLAN database.

The Pirates have committed a relatively paltry six TOOTBLANs so far while "forcing" a league-leading 16 on-base non-force outs by opponents, good for a differential of +10.

Second-place Kansas City is +8, with 10 TOOTBLANs by opponents and a mere two of their own.

The worst differential? That goes to the -7 San Francisco Giants (nine TOOTBLANs, two for opponents), followed by the Houston Astros at -6.

Here is the full Major League chart:

We are pleased to introduce our newest feature that will make tracking, sorting and studying our favorite statistic significantly easier - the TOOTBLAN Database.

This new tool allows you to quickly sort baserunning mishaps by player, team, league, opponent, inning, base, date and kind of TOOTBLAN.

We haven't worked all the bugs out, but here are the basics.

1. Click on TOOTBLAN Database in the header above.

2. You can search by team name in the opening box.

3. More usefully, you can see the full sortable and searchable list by clicking the "SEE ALL RECORDS" button.

4. You can then customize your search by using the drop down search windows:

5. You can also sort by clicking the headers above each column.

6. Enjoy!