Wlezien, C. (1995). The Public as Thermostat: Dynamics of Preferences for Spending. American Journal of Political Science, 39(4), 981.
Wlezien puts forward what he calls the “thermostatic model” of public opinion, which posits that mass opinion responds to policies. He tests his theory by collecting time series data on national attitudes towards defense and social spending, as well as budget appropriations. He shows that even when controlling for possible exogenous influences on opinion, such as the perceived threat of the Soviet Union, the thermostatic model is still plausible. The implication of this work is that the public is reasonably informed about political issues and are capable of taking that knowledge into account when making decisions. More broadly, Wlezien provides the framework for making similar claims about the relationship between policy and opinion in other settings.
