The Ride is Over
Besides winning the 2016 World Series the best moment for Cubs fans was signing Theo Epstein. He is a revered leader of a franchise and seemed like finally the right kind of management that could lead the Cubs to the level they had been waiting over 100 years for. The brain trust of Epstein, Jed Hoyer and Jason McLeod tore it down and built a World Series winner, but that window seems shut.
Epstein broke the curse of the Great Bambino and Boston, he had broken a drought already, but let's not forget Boston was happy to see him go. Epstein had built a World Series winner in Boston, and won two, but was also the reason the team got stuck in payroll purgatory. Carl Crawford, Mike Cameron, Julio Lugo; plenty of contracts Epstein handed out tanked the two time winners. Sounding familiar Cubs fans?
Epstein drafted a lot of players to help those Boston Red Sox win but then depleted the farm system and cap space by making big moves to keep the contention going, instead it shut the window. The brain trust made the Cubs one of the best with top draft picks and shipping out everyone from the previous regime, but where has that been since they won the World Series?
Coming in to the 2020 season the Cubs farm system rated as 23rd out of 30 teams in all of baseball. Their highest rated prospect in the top 100 is number 63 Brailyn Marquez, who's with the major league club. They have two other prospects in the top 100, OF Brennen Davis who's at A ball and C Miguel Amaya who's also with the big club. Chicago's top 10 prospects has three with the parent club and the rest at A ball or lower. For the rest of the top 30, three pitchers are in the majors and every other prospect is A ball or lower. The farm system is weak.
When you're competing you're going to value production for the parent club, but Epstein is always talking about parallel fronts, but it isn't happening. After that big wave that included Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, Kyle Schwarber and others, they haven't been able to replenish it even in to the middle rankings of the majors. Epstein and his brain trust regularly draft position players early, where has the pitching been?
Epstein's biggest shortcoming, and the biggest contributor, to the down fall of the Cubs will be his inability to develop pitchers. While the top ranked prospects that are with the club are mostly pitchers, are they any top end starters? Jon Lester, Yu Darvish, Jose Quintana, most of the rotation has been bought and that has left ownership saying 'We don't have any money to spend.'
It has been the exact same with closers. Aroldis Chapman, Greg Holland, Craig Kimbrel, all closers either bought or traded for. Now, let's be honest the Chapman trade was inevitable. While it hurts to see Gleyber Torres develop for the Yankees, especially with Chapman signing right back with the Yankees, that's the price for the World Series. However, the White Sox got in to the playoffs in big part because of Eloy Jimenez. The trade for Jose Quintana was a big set back from the Cubs and an indictment the organizations failure to find in house pitching.
Epstein is entering the last year of his deal and there are already rumors he'll stay a lame duck and just walk away. It's hard to envision after 2016 that just four years later we'd get to 2020 and be okay with Epstein walking away. For Chicago that's probably just, and should be, the beginning of a lot of changes for this Cubs team.
Chicago already tried spending to extend the window and it has just seen disappointing season after disappointing season. The window is closed. It's time to blow it up and start fresh. For the first time in a few seasons the Cubs will have some payroll open up with Lester a free agent, 25 million team option, Quintana's 10.5 comes off the books, Tyler Chatwoods 13 expires. That leaves the Cubs with 87 million, though Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber and Javier Baez enter their final years of arbitration with seven other players on the big league squad in arbitration.
Anthony Rizzo has one more team option at 16.5 million that will likely be picked up. I'd imagine Lester will not have his option picked up but could be back at a cheaper price. The talent is there, but it's been well documented the issues management has had trying to get a deal hammered out with Baez and Bryant. Again, who would of thought after 2016 those two wouldn't be sure bets to get another Cubs contract, but they may have played their last games at the friendly confines.
It was shortened season for 2020 but Baez still only hit 203 with eight home runs and 24 RBI. There's no doubt he has the 'It factor' on defense, but where has the offense been in the post season? Kris Bryant hit 206 in 2020 with only four homers and 11 RBI and has struggled to stay healthy since winning the MVP. Both are going to expect huge contracts but have been the core of a team that has regularly disappointed. Rumors came out of last season's off season that whoever would sign the Cubs would keep and they'd move the other, but now both could be gone.
Expect the rumors to ramp up this winter as both still aren't signed and, while they're value is depressed now and could keep them on the roster to start 2021, it doesn't seem Chicago will pay them as they blow it up and restock the farm system. Anthony Rizzo could join them on the way out despite being the leader of this team. Rizzo is 30, hit 222 with eleven homers and 24 RBI and has not gotten an extension either.
Kyle Scwarber seemed inevitable to come to a railroad situation at some point as he's more suited to be a DH and now enters his last arbitration year. The theme is reoccurring for 2020 as Schwarbs hit 188 with eleven dingers and 24 RBI in 2020. His price will be more reasonable for Chicago, but he was benched during the season for his defense and needs to be a full time DH.
David Bote and Nico Hoerner, while not the same caliber as the big stars, provide solid options at a cheaper rate for the Cubs while they rebuild another winner. Albert Almora was sent down during the disappointing 2020 season but Ian Happ broke out in a big way. Those three, along with Wilson Contreras at catcher and Victor Caritini needing a position, could be the core of the Cubs offense before 2021 is over.
You draft and trade to develop the type of players the Cubs had, but whatever this team was going to do looks like it has been done. During interviews throughout the season the stars knew what this year could mean for them and they were bad and flamed out in disappointing fashion in the playoffs yet again. Of course there's always a risk of never getting back, but signing the stars means the team won't change and it could be continual competitive purgatory.
With the stars at a depressed value it's likely they could start the season in Chicago, but will they finish 2021 in the Windy City? If Epstein truly is in a lame duck year how does he manage the team? Will Hoyer take over after he leaves or do they try and win before they possibly bounce? Running it back would be a mistake and it's time to to restart. Very rarely have we seen continued top competitiveness in the MLB and it looks like the Cubs need to go back to the basement and figure it out again.
