#techfiction

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I have been experimenting with Bitcoin for over a year now, and here is a short summary of my thoughts about it:

Pros

Bitcoin can drive transaction costs down dramatically, both disrupting the traditional finance industry and creating new business models based on micropayment. Knowing the high fees imposed by current payment intermediaries to merchants and thus to consumers, Bitcoin is a big deal.

Bitcoin does not require much infrastructure investment (near-zero marginal cost) which makes it an interesting option for unbanked populations in developing countries.

Beyond payment, the underlying Blockchain technology can be used to enforce complete contracts, extending its range of applications to law, politics, real estate, etc.

Cons

Even if transactions are publicly logged, Bitcoin is anonymous by design, which creates big regulatory risks and barriers to adoption both on the merchant and user side. The commonly-heard argument "the dollar bill is anonymous too" is wrong. Why reproduce a historical flaw into a feature? The case of Silk Road has shown that Bitcoin can act as an accelerator for illegal transactions and money laundering.

Due to its decentralized nature, there is no clear way to tame the volatility of the Bitcoin exchange rate against fiat currencies. The only solution would be a massive price fixing operation, which is unlikely at this point.

A personal prediction for 2020

Bitcoin will fail as as a mainstream currency, except for some specialized use cases such as international payment. Along with tighter regulations, some companies will build layers above Bitcoin to mitigate its anonymous and decentralized nature. Despite the relative failure of Bitcoin by itself, the tech industry in general will manage to bring transaction costs down. Finally, the underlying Blockchain technology will serve as an example/framework for online contract enforcement, which mainstream applications appearing by 2020.

# Transportation

Uber raised a total of $3 billion in three rounds in 2014, making it one of the most valued tech companies, at $40 billion. Previously, only Facebook had raised that much money ($1.5 billion in 2011). Uber does not communicate much on its internal metrics, but some leaks provide a rationale for this huge valuation.

Lessons to be learned :

Industries that have not embraced digital transformation yet are at a very high risk of disruption

Mobile is becoming the preferred channel for selling goods & services

Uber is a perfect example of the combination of great software, fast operations scaling, and aggressive marketing strategy

Questions :

In light of the recent regulatory backlash, how fast will Uber continue to grow?

How will Uber address the controversies about its company culture?

Will Uber manage to expand beyond personal transportation to become a global logistics operator?

# Mobile Messaging

Facebook acquired WhatsApp for $19 billion to take advantage of its active user base of 600 million people. While WhatsApp current business model ($1/user/year) only generates $20 million in revenue, Facebook will probably explore other monetization opportunities in the long term. Generally speaking, the mobile messaging market has exploded in 2014, with Rakuten’s $900 million acquisition of Viber, Tango’s $280 million funding round, etc.

Lessons to be learned :

Messaging is the killer app of mobile and social media

It is more than just messaging: these apps are becoming platforms for content, gaming and payment

Questions :

What will be the monetisation strategies to justify these huge valuations?

When will the market consolidate?

# Mobile Payment

With the iPhone 6, Apple introduced a mobile payment feature using Near Field Communication to pay in-store and in-app. As for now it is only available in the USA for major credit/debit cards and at select retail stores, but it will expand in 2015. In response, Samsung has started working with Paypal to integrate a similar feature in its future smartphones and smartwatches.

Lessons to be learned :

Apple Pay is the catalyst that will open the latent mobile payment market

Financial services will face a new level of technological disruption in the coming years

Questions :

Will existing payment networks survive?

Which parts of the banking industry are most at risk?

# Wearable devices

All major equipment manufacturers have released or revealed their first line of smartwatches. In almost all cases, they are built as an extension to users’ smartphone, with additional health sensors. Similarly to the smartphone world, the industry is divided into 2 main platforms : Google’s Android Wear and Apple’s adapted version of iOS, with Samsung trying to push its own proprietary platform.

Questions :

What will be the killer app of wearables?

When will the technology mature and the market take off?

Will wearables bring as big a change in our lives as mobile devices did?

# Smart Home

Google acquired smart thermostat maker Nest Labs for $3.2 billion and home monitoring startup Dropcam for $555 million. All major players are getting ready for the explosion of the mainstream market, with Samsung’s acquisition of home automation platform SmartThings, GE’s partnership with hardware invention startup Quirky, etc.

Lesson to be learned :

Following this year of industry consolidation, consumer adoption will accelerate in 2015

Questions :

What will be Apple’s response to Google and Samsung’s aggressive strategies?

Who will be the winners of the upcoming smart home platform war?

# Machine Learning

Google acquired Deepmind Technologies for $400 million, to leverage top talent in the specialized field of Deep Learning. This acquisition brings Google additional artificial intelligence capabilities, with powerful applications such as image recognition, speech recognition and natural language processing.

Lessons to be learned :

Machine Learning talent is scarce and highly valuable

The frontier between academia and the tech industry is blurring

Question :

How will other companies be able to bridge the talent gap?

# Virtual Reality 

Facebook acquired Oculus VR for $2 billion as a long-term strategic bet. While the Oculus Rift virtual reality headset is still at the development stage, we can expect a consumer version in 2015. Meanwhile, Samsung and Google have released prototypes of virtual reality headsets using users’ smartphone as display.

Lesson to be learned :

After decades of development, virtual reality technology is getting ready for mainstream adoption

Question :

Will virtual reality expand beyond gaming applications?

# Drone

Both Amazon and Google announced that they are working on package delivery drones: Amazon Prime Air and Google X Project Wing. This technology could revolutionise last-mile logistics and serve people in remote areas and places with bad road infrastructure. Regulators have not approved it yet, but it is a key proof of concept of this technology. Meanwhile, the consumer market for drones emerged, with new products from Parrot, DJI, etc.

Lessons to be learned :

The commercial drone technology is ready but the market is still untapped

We are waiting for improvements in air traffic control systems and regulatory decisions

Questions :

How will regulators address the terrorism risk?

Will it be a revolution for developed or developing countries?

# Autonomous Car

Google announced that their self-driving car prototype is functional, after more than 1 million kilometers of test on the road. For the moment it has been tested on well-chartered territory in a few american states, including on public roads and in traffic. Despite limitations such as the inability to recognize temporary road signs, this is an important step towards future commercialization. Tests with safety drivers will continue on public roads in more states in 2015.

Lesson to be learned:

Do not underestimate the long term potential for automation

Questions :

What will be the regulatory response?

How long will it take to reach mainstream adoption?

What economic and social consequences on the long term?

# Robotics

Qualcomm demonstrated Zeroth, a prototype of neuromorphic chip that mimics the humain brain. This technology could be the future of  computing and help robots better understand and react to their environment. Compared to existing technologies, it would open up real time applications, consume less power and work without connection to the Internet.

Lessons to be learned :

The future of computing will be inspired by biology

It is only a matter of 5-10 years for robots to become mainstream

Question :

A few words on my personal relationship with Foursquare

Foursquare has been on my smartphone home screen for 3 years now - a long time considering today's shortening technological life cycles.  I have been one of the early adopters of the service, back when it was a simple checkin app. I have over 1000 checkins, 100 tips, and I used to have a ton of badges (back when the feature existed). I even created a few places to contribute to the community.

As an avid life-logger, I love how Foursquare empowers me to remember all the places I visited, and how it creates incentives to discover new ones. I also use the Search feature a lot to prepare my nights and trips with friends. The only feature I have never used much is the social part, because too few of my friends are on Foursquare. To me, the value created by Foursquare is clear :

What about Foursquare’s recent decision to unbundle its app?

Following an initial announcement in May and made official in August, Foursquare split its app into two separate ones:

Swarm for Social features (checkins, making plans with friends, …)

Foursquare for Discovery features (search, review, …)

This decision has caused a lot of controversy lately (see reviews on Google Play or the App Store). In my personal case, despite an initial negative reaction, I adjusted my user flow to use the service for the same purposes as before. But the point is: why did Foursquare decide to make such a radical change of strategy? I see two potential reasons, which are interesting lessons for entrepreneurs:

1. One App = 1 Use Case

There are some underlying trends going on:

As the mobile app space matures, the quality and quantity of apps increases, so that developers are competing for attention

The technology allowing apps to communicate with each other is improving rapidly (deep-linking, etc.)

Due to the nature of the smartphone form factor, there is a limit to the number of features people actually use in an app

As a consequence, app developers need to focus on one use case and a few key features to make the value proposition clear to users. For existing apps, it means unbundling apps by use case (and using deep-linking to make apps work together). There are plenty of examples of this phenomenon: Facebook with Messenger and Groups, Google Drive with Docs, Slides and Sheets, Dropbox with Mailbox and Carousel. To borrow the expression of my favorite VC-blogger Fred Wilson, we are entering the "app constellation" age.

2. Crossing the chasm

Beyond the benefits of unbundling described above, splitting was also a necessary step for Foursquare to « cross the chasm » between the early adopter and the mainstream market. From my perception, Foursquare was built on a early adopter community consisting mainly of life-loggers who used it for check-ins. That approach worked out really well to build Foursquare’s database, since life-loggers acted as real life web crawlers. However, it did not scale very well in terms of user growth and monetization, since life-logging remains a niche market. Moreover, it became a barrier to mainstream adoption, since most users are uncomfortable with the idea of sharing their personal location data. The presence of Social features prevented the Discovery uses from growing.

That was Foursquare’s dilemma: to cross the chasm, Foursquare had to break its life-logging image, risking to alienate its early adopters, to refocus its value proposition around Discovery.

Hello world,

This is the first post of my new blog/adventure in the land of "Tech Fiction". I want this blog to be a repository of my personal thoughts on technology, innovation, economics, and life in general. I will try to post new items once a month. Length and format will be free.

A few words to introduce myself:

I am a young French engineer passionate about technology and entrepreneurship

I have lived in France and in Canada, studying engineering, economics and innovation

I have worked as a financial analyst for big companies, and held business development roles in startups at various stages

I am currently working in France as a strategy consultant at Capgemini, and learning how to code on the side

Why I am starting this blog:

I have been tweeting about the tech industry for about 2 years @alteralec

I was starting to feel a bit limited by 140 characters 

I am seeing some trends and patterns in what I read and hear around me

I believe in the value of sharing

I hope you will find this blog interesting!

Cheers,