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The strongest predictor of rising into the ranks of superforecasters is perpetual beta, the degree to which one is committed to belief updating and self-improvement. It is roughly three times as powerful a predictor as its closest rival, intelligence.
Philip Tetlock
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4 Ways On How to Improve Forecasting Skills, a Credit Suisse Report by Mauboussin
4 Ways On How to Improve Forecasting Skills, a Credit Suisse Report by Mauboussin
In the aggregate, forecasters may be “roughly as accurate as a dart-throwing chimp,” but some forecasters are particularly and consistently far better than average. Credit Suisse reports that the book Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction by Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner provides important insights into how to improve forecasting skill, perhaps by as much as 60%. In other words,…
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