#spring poll

Geert Wilders’ far-right PVV has lost its lead in the latest Dutch opinion poll for the first time since the general election 18 months ago, according to new data released by Maurice de Hond through his Peil.nl survey panel. The poll, conducted over the weekend following the agreement on the Voorjaarsnota 2025 on April 16, shows that the left-wing opposition party GroenLinks-PvdA has surpassed the PVV, securing 29 seats, one more than Wilders’ party. The VVD, one of the current coalition partners, stands in third place with 26 seats. Wilders’ PVV, which currently holds 37 seats in the Tweede Kamer (Lower House), has now dropped by a total of eight seats in projected support. Pollster Maurice de Hond noted that public opinion had shifted significantly since February, when the PVV held an eight-seat advantage over its nearest rivals. Since then, the PVV has declined by four seats, while GroenLinks-PvdA and the VVD have each gained five seats out of a total of 150 available. The broader political environment appears to have influenced voter behavior. De Hond pointed to the heightened focus on global security and the growing threat of a recession since Donald Trump’s return to the White House as factors pushing voters back toward mainstream parties. Other parties are also experiencing notable shifts. The center-right CDA is showing a steady recovery, climbing to 19 seats after only securing five in the last election. Meanwhile, the progressive-liberal D66, which had been on an upward trajectory, is now losing support. De Hond suggested that former D66 voters are likely switching allegiance to GroenLinks-PvdA. Nieuw Sociaal Contract (NSC), led by Pieter Omtzigt until his resignation last week on health grounds, is facing a near-total collapse. The party is now projected to lose 19 of the 20 seats it won in the November 2023 elections. BoerBurgerBeweging (BBB) is also in decline, falling to just three seats.

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