#smith 4

Approximate Due Date (ADD)

Per the Pregnancy Announcement, Tori is due “in August” of 2022.  Consistent w/ Duggar Data’s standard method of interpreting vague date data like this, I’ll be using the mid–point of August—i.e., August 16, 2022—as the Approximate Due Date (ADD), until and unless the Smiths provide more exact data.

Projected DOB + Child Spacing

After 3 Births, Tori delivers 16 Days Early, on average.  (She was 15 Days Early w/ Kade, 21 Days Early w/ Kolter, and ~11 Days Early w/ Charlotte.)  Based on this, and Tori’s ADD of August 16, the Predictor thinks that Smith–Bates #4 will arrive on July 31, 2022.

Smith–Bates #3 (Charlotte Raine) was born on June 24, 2021.  If Smith–Bates #4 arrives on July 31, 2022, as forecast, that’ll be a Child Spacing of just 402 Days (13.25 Months).  That’s Tori + Bobby’s shortest Child Spacing, to date...  Kade–to–Kolter was 502 Days (~25% Longer), and Kolter–to–Charlotte Raine was 456 Days (~13% Longer).  It’s also impressively short, in general.  Among Bateses, only two Non–Firstborn, Non–Post Loss spacings were <402 Days... Zach–to–Michaela, 389 Days and Lawson–to–Nathan, 398 Days.

Early, Late, or What?  

They’re Significantly Early, though their Pregnancy Announcement was dead–on.  When Charlotte was born, Duggar Data forecast the following, with regard to Smith–Bates #4—

Baby News   May 3, 2022

Sex Reveal  May 17, 2022 (or w/ Baby News)

Due Date   November 1, 2022

Projected DOB   October 16, 2022

As you can see, the timing of the Pregnancy Announcement was dead–on with my prediction (May 8 vs. May 3); however, Tori was further along than forecast. She is due in August, rather than November, with a Projected Child Spacing of 402 Days, rather than the initially–forecast 479 Days.  Doing the math, they are 77 Days (or 11 Weeks, or ~2.75 Months) Early.  Given how fast the pace was already, that’s...  Truly exhausting to think about.

Impact on Procreative Pace / ESOQ

Prior to this, Tori + Bobby’s Procreative Pace (PP), which was based on their Non–Firstborn Spacings, was 479 Days (~15.7 Months). Kade–to–Kolter was 502 Days, and Kolter–to–Charlotte was 456 Days.

Now, averaging in Charlotte–to–#4′s Projected 402–Day Spacing, their pace shifts to 453 Days (–26 Days).  Just one Predictor Couple, Courtney + Chris Rogers, has the Smiths solidly beat...  The Rogerses’ PP is a mere 413 Days.  (Technically, Nurie Keller and Allison Helferich are also outpacing Tori—but, in both cases, their PP is very speculative, since they only have 1 Child, so far.)  

After Charlotte’s birth, Tori + Bobby’s ESOQ was 18 Children.  Now, with the data from Pregnancy #4, their ESOQ is 19 Children (+1 Child), which means that Tori is on–track to quite literally be the next Kelly Jo.  (Wow!)

Tori + Bobby vs. Kendra + Joe

Tori + Bobby were outpacing Kendra + Joe after Charlotte’s birth—and, with Pregnancy #4 being early for them, they’re poised to remain in the lead.

Kendra isn’t publicly–known to be pregnant, though rumors are aplenty...

When To Expect Smith–Bates #5

Based on the adjusted data, here’s what the Predictor is forecasting—

Baby News   June 3, 2023

Sex Reveal   With the Baby News

Due Date   November 12, 2023

Projected DOB   October 27, 2023