#secondworst

BTC second-worst YTD since 2011, expected to remain flat through 2023

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Bitcoin (BTC) saw its second-worst year to date (YTD) in 2022 since launch — predicted to remain flat through 2023, according to Arcane Research (AR).

Down 65% by the end of 2022, BTC performed worse on only one other occasion — in 2018, down 73% on the YTD.

Source: Arcane Research

Compared to gold and S&P 500, cryptocurrencies took the biggest hit to value in 2022 — falling sharply in May 2022 and mid-June 2022, according to AR data.

“The crypto winter of 2022 was fueled by tightening macro conditions and vastly exacerbated by crypto-specific leverage and awful risk management by core market participants.”

AR said that — if reached in 2023 — the next BTC market bottom “will be the longest-lasting BTC drawdown ever.”

“2023 prediction: Bitcoin will trade in a predominantly flat range this year, but close 2023 at a higher price than the yearly open.”

After a year of central bank tightening, 2022 became “one big dollar trade,” as assets all became repriced while the dollar became more expensive, according to AR data.

“In 2022, the Federal Reserve’s effective funds rate grew from 0% to 4.25%, leading to a massive repricing of risk assets that all benefitted from easy money and a low-interest rate regime in late 2022 and throughout 2021.”

AR predicted that the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates throughout the first half of 2023.

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2022 second-worst year ever for Bitcoin price - Arcane

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Arcane Research’s 2022 year-end report cited that 2022 was the second-worst-performing year for Bitcoin (BTC), as the leading crypto saw a 65% decrease throughout the year, only beaten by the 73% sink recorded in 2018.

BTC, ETH, BNB, S&P500, and Gold in 2022

BTC’s performance was the second-worst of the year compared to Binance Coin (BNB), Ethereum (ETH), S&P 500, and Gold. ETH recorded the most significant decrease by falling 69%. Gold was the most resilient, recording only a 1% fall.

Binance

Crypto exchange Binance’s growth was another highlight of 2022. Binance’s dominance in BTC spot volume grew by 47% throughout the year, increasing to 92% at the current market share from the 45% recorded on the first day of the year.

Binance was responsible for 66% of the crypto perp volume and 61% of the BTC derivatives volume as the year concludes. The exchange recorded a 10% increase in both areas, compared to 49% and 56% at the beginning of the year.

Binance 2022 growth

The report predicted Binance’s dominance in the spot market will decline, and the BUSD dominance will increase.

BTC and equities correlation

BTC’s correlation with other equities has also been significantly high in 2022. The report looked into BTC’s annual correlation with Nasdaq, S&P 500, Gold, DXY, and ETH since 2017.

BTC correlation with equities

The data showed that BTC’s correlation with ETH has been strong since 2017. However, 2022 was the first year BTC demonstrated such a strong correlation with other equities.

BTC’s correlation with Nasdaq was robust throughout the year at 0.59, closely followed by S&P 500 at 0.56. However, the report expects BTC’s correlation with other assets to decline in the following years as the trading activity in crypto declines.

Stablecoins

Stablecoins’ market cap relative to BTC also grew exponentially in 2022, increasing to 41% from 15% at the beginning of the year.

The report claimed that the growing stablecoin dominance has a self-evident explanation. It stated:

 “Cryptocurrency valuations have deteriorated this year, and stablecoins are stable.”

The combined market cap of stablecoins represented 28% of BTC’s and ETH’s combined market cap and 17% of the total crypto market cap. This percentage was 10% and 6% at the beginning of the year.

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The Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond index, related to trillions of bucks of fixed-income, is on track to publish its second-worst appearing in history. The index is one of the crucial broadly used barometers for bond-fund managers, and is related to greater than $20 trillion of belongings. Its deficient efficiency underscores how fixed-income markets have…

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