Trump Presidency Seasonal Cycle Spring Bottom
The market has spent the past several weeks working through geopolitical uncertainty, energy volatility, and shifting macro signals. Yet despite the noise, the pullback has remained relatively contained—an important sign of underlying strength.
One pattern stands out: during Trump Presidency Years, the S&P 500 has tended to carve out a spring bottom in late March to early April before staging meaningful advances into year-end. S&P 500's low close was March 30. The two-week U.S.-Iran ceasefire has held — and despite weekend peace talks ending without a deal, a new round of in-person negotiations is in the works this week. So far, 2026 is tracking the Trump Presidency seasonal pattern closely.
Markets don't wait for clarity — they bottom in uncertainty. The S&P 500 has erased all of its Iran war losses. With sentiment reset, positioning lighter, and volatility elevated, the backdrop is in place for a near-term recovery. The Middle East turbulence may have pulled forward much of the typical midterm Q2-Q3 weakness. That creates opportunity.
Geopolitical risks and energy markets remain key variables, but the market has absorbed these shocks better than many expected. Growth is holding, labor is solid, and the Fed is neutral. If diplomacy continues to progress, the setup for equities into year-end looks increasingly constructive.
