#rogers 12

Approximate Due Date (ADD)

Based on this Instagram Story (8–30–21), it appears Courtney is due w/ Rogers #12 in Early March 2022.  Consistent with my typical rule, Duggar Data translates “Early March 2022” into an Approximate Due Date (ADD) of March 5, 2022.

Will They Do A Sex Reveal, Pre–Birth?

Probably.  Duggar Data has Sex Reveal data for all but 2 Rogerses—Clint (#1) and Cade (#3)—and believes those two didn’t have pre–birth Sex Reveals.  All the rest of them did at, on average, 138 Days Along.

Given an ADD of March 5, 2022, Courtney will be 138 Days Along—and thus, we can expect the Sex Reveal—on October 14, 2022.  We’ll see!

Projected DOB

Excluding 2 Premature Deliveries (1 Due to Placenta Previa, 1 Due to Twins), it is ‘typical’ for Courtney to deliver 4 Days Late, vs. her Due Date.  That—along with Courtney’s ADD of March 5, 2022—gives Rogers #12 a Projected DOB of March 9, 2022.

Early, Late, or What?

Slightly Late.  Post–Caris (#11), Courtney + Christopher’s Procreative Pace (PP) was 407 Days (1 Child Every 13.4 Months).  Given that, Rogers #12 was initially expected to arrive on January 9, 2022.  But, now that they’ve announced, the calculated Projected DOB is actually March 9, 2022—i.e., 2 Months Later than initially forecast.  Doing the math, they’re 59 Days Late.

Through Caris, Courtney’s Standard Deviation (SD) of Child Spacing was 69 Days.  Doing the math again, 59 Days Late is <1 SD Late (0.85 SD).  This falls well within the normal range...  But, technically, it’s late.

They’re also late in terms of Gestational Age at Announcement.  Prior to their latest Pregnancy Announcement, Courtney + Christopher typically revealed a pregnancy when Courtney was 51 Days Along.  But...  This time around, they waited until she was ~70 Days Along.  So...  In terms of Timing of Pregnancy Announcement, they were 19 Days (and 0.40 SD) Late.  Again, it’s well within the normal range, but technically late.

Effect on Procreative Pace / ESOQ

After Caris, the Rogerses Procreative Pace (PP) was 407 Days (or 1 Child / 13.4 Months), and—assuming Courtney is fertile to Age 40—their Estimated Size of Quiver (ESOQ) was 14 Children.

Factoring in Rogers #12′s tentative data, their PP shifts to 413 Days (6 Days Slower), or 1 Child Every 13.6 Months, and their ESOQ remains 14 Children (No Change).  (That’s assuming, per Duggar Data’s default rule, that Chris + Courtney will be fertile until her 40th Birthday.  For each additional year that she’s fertile beyond that, she’ll have time to produce 0.88 Child.)

When To Expect Rogers #13

This probably won’t be Courtney’s last child.  As of August 2021, she still only 37 Years Old—and thus, likely has a few more years of fertility.  (And, possibly more than a few...  Kelly Jo Bates had her Final Child at >Age 45!)

Given Courtney + Christopher’s data, here’s what the Predictor expects, with regard to Rogers #13—

Baby News   September 5, 2022

Sex Reveal   December 1, 2022   

Due Date   April 22, 2023   

Projected DOB   April 26, 2023