#robertsirleaf

Just passed summer I wrote a Tumblr post title “EJS faces a riddle?” In it I basically predicted three likely outcomes or scenarios with respect to the senatorial candidacies of Mr. Ali Sylla and Mr. Robert A. Sirleaf; the former, at the time, was the governing party candidate for the Montserrado senatorial race and the latter was not only a candidate but a son of President Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf, who, by the way, is the standard bearer of the governing Unity party (UP). Unsurprisingly, the recent withdrawal of Mr. Ali Sylla from the Montserrado race validates one of my likely scenarios: “It is very likely,” I predicted, “that the governing UP candidate will drop out of the race.” And Mr. Ali Sylla, another young man, did just that.

FrontPage Africa headlines reads, “Liberia Ruling UP’s Sylla Quits Montserrado Race.”

To some it is a “shock” but more so, as the young people often say in Liberia, “a total disappointment.” Amos Tweh, Chairman of UP Youth League did not mince his words on facebook: “We are walloped in the huge disappointment, we are completely wrecked by the outright betrayal of our deep confidence,” he adds, “in whom we thought was a representation of our desire for a new beginning.” Whereas others, including me, see it as another young man falling prey to not just the political reality of the day but to a new political sham that came into been during the 2011 general and presidential elections. This political sham comes in two forms: an individual will either contest a party primary and win and then back off the race for some trivial and monetary reasons (as was done in Monterrado’s 2011 senatorial race) or the party will very likely play the double standard card. The governing Unity Party often tends to support more than one candidate. In Grand Bassa County, for example, the governing UP supported two candidates in the 2011 senatorial race and did same during the 2013 by election. Unfortunately, the UP lost both elections. “Those who do not remember the past,” says George Santayana “are condemned to repeat it.”

Understandably, there are lots of claims and counterclaims out there about The Ali Sylla Factor (synonymous to The Ali Sylla Withdrawal) but it is not within the purview of this piece to dissect. The author, however, would like to do another prognosis of scenarios that is likely to engulfed the ruling Unity Party. My second prediction last summer was that the ruling UP may experienced a split—that is, dire-hard supporter are very likely to support the party’s candidate, whereas the establishment is very likely to support the candidacy of Mr. Robert A. Sirleaf, my namesake:) However, and given that, UP's candidate has drop out of the race (i) die-hard supporters are very likely to support an alternative candidate (perhaps Amb. George M. Weah, Mr. Ben Sanvee, or Mr. Christopher Neyor) other than Mr. Sirleaf because they feel that he’s partly (if not wholly) responsible for Mr. Ali Sylla exist “Who stands,” UP former SG, Henry Fahnbulleh, rhetorically asked the TBS hosts, “to benefit” from Sylla’s exist. Robert A. Sirleaf most certainly. (ii) Unlike in the past, the establishment is kind of at liberty to openly support Mr. Sirleaf and perhaps garner most of UP votes. My third prediction last summer (the double standard card), seems null and void (at least for now), but as they say in politics, nothing is impossible or static.

And let’s be honest, Mr. Ali Sylla chances of winning the Monterrado’s county senatorial race was very, very slim, though not impossible. I do not want to give a prognosis on the outcome but if the data from the past two general and presidential elections are anything to go by, it is very likely that Amb. George Manneh Weah will take the day. So, if you were to ask me who I am supporting, I would emphatically tell you, Amb. Weah because, agree or not, I think this brother needs a chance to lead his people.