Factions Recap

Lamb

Purpose: Prevent murders.

Win condition: Eliminate all Wolves and the Assassin.

Initial Count: 12

No trial will occur if the win condition is met.

A Lamb will be considered a "traitor" and become a Wolf if they commit murder.

Wolf

Purpose: Murder another participant within a "round" (a 72 hour period starting from the first 6AM after the previous trial) or be executed.

Win condition: Match or outnumber the combined amount of surviving participants from other factions.

Initial Count: 2

Can only kill 2 people per round.

Unlike the other roles, they can identify each other.

Former Lambs who become Wolves will be given the opportunity to identify other Wolves if they survive their victim's trial.

Assassin

Purpose: Get a "target" amongst the Lambs executed in a trial.

Win condition: Make the target, dead or alive, receive the most votes in a trial without having the target vote for themselves.

Initial Count: 1

Can only kill 1 person within the game.

If the target is dead (whether by murder or not), failure to ensure the most votes for them results in execution.

If the target receives the most votes including a vote from the target themselves, the Assassin will become a Lamb.

Cannot change factions using the card shuffler.

It is unclear if the target remains the same throughout the whole game or not.

Joker

Purpose: Emotionally manipulate the other participants.

Win condition: Receive the highest amount of votes in a trial.

Initial Count: 1

Loses if the Lambs or Wolves win.

Cannot commit murder.

Other Notes

There is no tangible evidence of who possesses which roles.

The Lambs, Wolves and Joker can swap roles using the card shuffler. However, swaps can only occur between 2 living participants.

This is not stated in-game but the Lambs' rules imply that they cannot win by directly murdering the remaining members of other factions.

Role Speculation

Some disclaimers before I begin:

A character possessing any role other than Lamb does not necessarily make them black-and-white evil. Depending on their characterization, they could have any reason to conform with their role, whether it be survival or something 'deep'.

I won't be writing any in-depth arguments in favor of candidates for Wolves yet because the clues in favor of certain characters being Wolves are vague in comparison with clues indicating the Joker or the Assassin.

The noodle cup murder attempt was not necessarily performed by a Wolf. I also suspect said attempt wasn't actually intended to murder someone, but rather to start drama because of how poorly planned it was.

Joker

Getting the longest explanation out of the way first. As of the end of Act 2, it's almost certainly Ōkami.

My first reason to believe this is that she acted in an edgy, somewhat antisocial manner in Act 2's trial despite being correct about the culprit's identity and cover-up method as well as not having displayed such behaviour in Act 1 or Act 2 Daily. While it was implied that the loss of Utsuho was the root cause of her behaviour, it also read as though she was deliberately drawing attention to herself.

Dialogue from the trailer "Dilemma", the scene in which she took out the trash with Izumi in Act 2 Daily and her bio suggest that she uses her acting career as a means of achieving temporary states of grandeur. Through the lens of Joker!Ōkami, it can be argued that she perceives the attention-grabbing Joker role as yet another character she can use to achieve megalomania.

Dilemma transcript:

Once upon a time, there was a girl who made a wish upon the stars. A wish that she would keep forever close to her heart. Not as a secret, but as a promise. Though for such a miracle to exist, she must separate her soul from her being. She must be reduced to a puppet. She must live as an empty shell. So, she stepped onto the stage and began her performance. One that would last for an eternity, until the day she fulfils that promise. This was her answer to the "dilemma".

(Note: the lines "She must be reduced to a puppet. She must live as an empty shell." could imply that her behaviour stems from self esteem issues.)

Bin scene:

…and when I'm an actress, I can act it all out so that I'm not simply immersing myself into the characters anymore. It would be as though I am the characters themselves. That's it. Why be one thing when you can be everything? And when you're an actress, you're everything all at once.

Bio:

To her, the stage is where she finds herself, and despite only being a vessel for the characters, it is through acting that she could achieve her dream — of being everything all at once.

Furthermore, Ōkami being the Joker would confirm Tejima's suspicions of the roles being assigned to certain contestants deliberately. The role of Joker primarily revolves around putting on a suspicious façade; it's as though it was tailor made for the Ultimate Actress.

Now to address the elephant in the room: Utsuho's claims about being the Joker. As we should know by now, it was impossible for Utsuho to have possessed the Joker role at the time of his meetup with Kasei because the Joker is not allowed to commit murder. There are two possibilities explaining how Ōkami ended up with the Joker role in spite of Utsuho's actual role:

Utsuho initially was the Joker but switched places with Ōkami, reaching out to her of all people because she was the first contestant to form any bond with him. She lied about not complying with his requests for support to save her own skin.

Utsuho was never the Joker in the first place.

I lean towards Possibility 1 because it strengthens the argument in favor of Joker!Ōkami. Her "dilemma" according to trailer could be related to Utsuho's turmoil over being the Joker, which she would "answer" by switching roles with him, thereby "separating her soul from her being" to save him. As for why she'd do this, a likely factor behind it is the "I can fix him" mindset she displayed in Act 1. Additionally, a statetement I made earlier in this section — "Utsuho was the root cause of her behaviour" — can be recontextualized by Possibility 1. Instead of only referring to her outbursts and self-isolation, it can refer to those behaviours alongside her being further motivated to conform with the Joker role.

Using narrative/meta reasoning, Possibility 1 would also confirm that Utsuho told the truth during his outburst to Kasei, thereby preserving the character development and sincerity of that moment.

One could argue that Possibility 1 contradicts the idea that Joker!Ōkami confirms Tejima's theory. However, this counter-argument doesn't hold up well because the Joker role suits Utsuho's disruptive and deceptive behaviour anyway. I also considered that the mastermind could've anticipated Utsuho and Ōkami's switch but am currently doubtful of the chances of the mastermind playing 4D chess.

Assassin

Assuming they tried to exploit their role this act, Hayasaki is currently the most likely candidate.

The main reason for this take is that similarly to Ōkami, his characterization shifted in Act 2's trial, and the most living characters haven't undergone this sort of change yet (Tejima has also slightly changed but this happened to him in Act 1). In Act 1 and the Daily Life half of Act 2, Hayasaki presented himself as a benevolent individual whose only prominent flaw was his opportunism, and even this was only expressed in a subtle manner through his dynamic with Houjou. Come Act 2's trial, he adopted a more suspicious demeanour and stubbornly targeted Kishibe when circumstantial evidence was stacked up against him. The fact that Hayasaki's behavioural shift happened during the first trial since the extended rules were revealed implies that the shift may have been caused by the rules.

His claims about knowing who the mastermind is don't null this possibility.

Katsuragi would also be an understandable take because of her accusatory behaviour towards Ichinose but it can easily be rebutted using similar reasoning to the Joker!Ōkami and Assassin!Hayasaki takes. Unlike those two, she has exhibited suspicious behaviour since Act 1, meaning she doesn't need a special role in order to act like the Assassin.

Everyone Else/Brief Recap

[0] Izumi: Confirmed Lamb.

[1] Ichinose: From a narrative perspective, it'd make the most sense for the character who is unjustly perceived as a murderer to be a Lamb.

[2] Sawa: No way of telling at this stage.

[3] Hoshino: No way of telling at this stage.

[4] Kasei: Despite undeniably dying a Wolf, he was most likely a Lamb to begin with because his offer to switch roles with Utsuho implied that he had a less difficult role, and out of all the roles, Lambs face the least pressure to sabotage other participants.

[5] Amamiya: No way of telling at this stage.

[6] Utsuho: If possibility 1 is true, he died as a Lamb. Selfish or not, it's unlikely that Okami would want to burden someone she cares for with another difficult role right after freeing him from the Joker role had she started off as a Wolf. If Possibility 2 is true, there would be no way of telling what his real role was.

[7] Katsuragi: No way of telling at this stage. However, it'd be hilarious if the character who was the most gung-ho about prosecuting Ichinose for being an alleged murderer ended up being one of the Wolves.

[8] Houjou: No way of telling at this stage. The murder attempt on her doesn't eliminate the possibility of her being a Wolf because it wasn't necessarily performed by one.

[9] Kishibe: Assuming Hayasaki is the Assassin, then he must be a Lamb.

[10] Watabe: No way of telling at this stage.

[11] Hayasaki: Implied to be the Assassin.

[12] Tejima: No way of telling at this stage. I can imagine some fans would predict that he's a Wolf because of how suspicious his 'leader' façade is but frankly, this would just be too clichéd.

[13] Ōkami: Heavily implied to be the Joker. Also, despite her surname literally meaning wolf, she's unlikely to be one because even her bio itself has acknowledged how much of a blatant red herring it is.

[14] Kurobane: No way of telling at this stage.

[15] Iriyama: No way of telling at this stage.