UK inflation just dropped to 2.8%. That is well below the Bank of England's own April projection of 3.1% for Q2. Services inflation fell to 3.2% — the lowest reading since January 2022. And Andrew Bailey speaks on Friday morning into a picture that has shifted under the MPC's feet. If Bailey treats April's softer print as a temporary energy-driven effect, sterling holds its recent strength. If he opens the door to an earlier cut, the pound has further to fall this summer than the market currently expects. → GBP/USD at 1.3434, near the upper end of its three-month range → GBP/EUR at 1.158, within touching distance of its 2026 high → US Core PCE Thursday — the Fed's preferred inflation gauge → Eurozone flash CPI Friday — the binary event for the euro → RBNZ rate decision Wednesday — only G10 central bank decision this week Monday is a UK Bank Holiday and US Memorial Day. The week opens quiet on Tuesday and accelerates fast. If you have a sterling transfer planned, this is a week where the data calendar matters more than the headline noise. #PoundSterling #GBPUSD #GBPEUR #CurrencyForecast #ExchangeRates #InternationalTransfer #BankOfEngland #UKInflation #CorePCE #FX
