#plesner

Thomas Schlosser’ Summerhouse, Skagen, Denmark,

Looked at as 'politics' - this subject of Tal Law is nothing but regular 'coalition politics' thing - which can be found at many other places. 

Kadima right now has 28 seats. Likud - 27. And if 7 Kadima MKs move to Likud as speculated in this piece -

Likud becomes 34, Kadima 21 (and Kadima can split further - and possibility of new major centrist party - can't be entirely denied). Though, it's still quite speculative and unforeseeable at this point. 

If Mofaz quits the coalition, seven hawkish MKs are expected to join Likud. There is also talk that a group of MKs who support Tzipi Livni will split Kadima and serve as part of a new center party in the Knesset.

"If the rightist MKs quit the party, Mofaz will remain with a faction in which most MKs do not see him as their leader," a Kadima MK said yesterday.

"The possibility of Kadima breaking up is very serious," another party MK said. "Mofaz knows he will lose in any outcome."

A number of MKs tried to persuade Mofaz to stay in the coalition.

Kadima is trying to do three things: Save its own very bleak political future, pass a very populist law, and destroy the connection between the political right and the religious right (which don't necessarily go together in this country). Withdrawing from the government accomplishes none of those goals, although it might turn many Kadima MK's (if there are any left) into martyrs after a future election. The Likud, on the other hand, wants to change as little as possible in order to preserve potential future partnerships with the Haredim, it wants to do just enough to avoid the embarrassment of having to deal with the Supreme Court again, and it has absolutely no fear of elections, with survey after survey showing that it would emerge as by far the largest party. Look for a minimalist deal to be reached and look for Kadima to stay in the coalition. But if Kadima does withdraw from the coalition, you can bet that the Haredim, at least, will give the Likud peace and quiet until the next election in November 2013. Yisrael Beiteinu? Unlikely to withdraw since they will also lose seats to Yair Lapid in any future election. Notice how they have toned down their rhetoric since Netanyahu sent Yaalon to take the lead in the negotiations. What could go wrong?