So I was checking out this post from @discovares about the analysis of Emma and Morgan's "checks," thinking about the nature of both of their playstyles and how they view the court and their cases. The line "Emma needs to learn how to play Morgan's game" rang for a little bit in my mind, and I think I came up with a unique idea.
So it's been discussed a lot by now: Morgan loves poker and Emma loves chess. Morgan enjoys a bit of risk and luck, Emma enjoys both people having all the same pieces. Emma does do a bit of gacha gaming based off of her various bios, but Chess and Poker don't have much to do with one another. How exactly could Emma "learn to play Morgan's game?" What crossover would there be between Chess and Poker, outside of the "checks?"
Then an idea hit. What is a specific gambling card game where, theoretically, you could know exactly what to do at all times? Know exactly when to bet, when to fold, when to go all in? What's a gambling game that, theoretically, both individuals at the table could go into with perfect knowledge?
Card counting. That is Emma's proverbial "foot in the door" for learning how to counter Morgan's brand of nonsense.
Despite Morgan and Emma having grown quite acquainted with one another, I think it's very noteworthy that Emma had never lost to her before during Episode 0. Her analytical playstyle, her strategies, always managed to outsmart Morgan and draw her into a corner. She's always been confident in what she does, she's always treated Morgan as she would any other lawyer counselor. Because why wouldn't she? She's nothing special.
But now Morgan's winning. And she's winning frequently. Racking up a streak against Emma and it's clearly getting on her nerves. So much so that she's starting to get defensive and refusing to call the ending of Chapter 2 a "loss." Chapter 1 she could write it off because "justice prevailed," but Sosuke's trial left off on such a sour note. Her pride is damaged, her strategy isn't working. Which means she needs to start paying more attention to Morgan.
The science behind card counting is... well it's a lot of technical details I don't fully know, but the only way to get started is by losing, and losing frequently. You have to pay close attention to all of the cards dealt, keeping a tally on low numbers vs high numbers, and only bet when the odds lean heavier towards your own hand rather than the dealer's. And when you do, you bet hard and fast before they have a chance to figure out what's going on.
Now that Morgan's winning, and winning frequently, Emma is going to start getting wise to her strategies. The show that she put on at the end of Chapter 2 was flashy, memorable, and that means she won't be able to pull the same trick again. Emma has taken a loss, but that song and dance Morgan did added to that tally. As Morgan keeps winning, Emma will keep getting data points to add to that tally. It will never be perfect, but she'll get a better handle on how to counter her. It's almost funny how this framework aligns with Emma trying to find Heartbreak too: the only way Emma finds Heartbreak is if Morgan keeps piling up bodies, keeps giving Emma counters to the tally. And when she has enough data, she's going to strike fast and strike hard.
Granted, there are a few holes with this framework. Blackjack is primarily what Morgan uses for cross-examinations. She sees all of court closer to poker, and in poker you shuffle the deck every single round. Not to mention that Emma works for The State, and The State is The House.
But honestly I find it kind of fitting under the lens that Emma is specifically trying to focus on Morgan and learn how she works.
Whenever the Blackjack minigame comes up, Morgan uses that framework in an attempt to try and get each of her "opponents" to say what she wants them to say. For example, in Chapter 1 with the Reyes Blackjack minigame, Morgan specifically wants Reyes to indirectly admit what she refuses to state out loud. Blackjack is used to probe the right information, the right actions and reactions, out of people.
And as Emma gets to know Morgan a bit more, continuously learn her strategies and how she ticks, she'll develop more strategies for how to counter Morgan specifically. Say what she wants her to say, act how she wants her to act, address Morgan's specific tendencies that are unique from any other person she fights against. And then, using that information she got from her own metaphorical "blackjack" against Morgan, use that info to out-wit Morgan's hot streak.
Not to mention. I feel it's kind of fitting for Emma to be "the house." You play so well, win so big during your games, that one of the major players in the staff itself challenges you to a game. Goes down to Morgan's level instead of sitting behind the cameras. With enough data points, with enough tallies, tracking enough of the high and low cards, Emma will eventually win.
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Leading up to it Emma has multiple ellipses, and her facial expression is, in a word, stunned.
But Morgan is wrong, she's making assumptions about Emma's emotional state (something that she makes consistent mistakes about, kind of a character trait). Emma's not shocked that Morgan "flashed her hand" and is almost at a full house. Emma's stunned because Morgan implicated herself.
Near the start of the trial, Morgan is desperate so she starts asking questions and making arguments using her one advantage: having committed 4 out of 5 of the murders herself. She floats doubt into the possibility of the katana killing Miller.
And then she asks no further questions, doesn't try to establish doubt into any other part of the story with the medical examiner.
That's suspicious as hell.
Emma can't dismiss this as Morgan having good intuition, but she can't prove it that Morgan is responsible.
I think, here, more than anything, is what raises Emma's suspicions towards Morgan being HBK
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