#ongoing penguin problem

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Our Penguin 4 Predictions for 2015 and 2016

Right at the tail end of 2014, Google rolled out the newest Penguin update, leading to a lot of panic and then a lot of relief. The update was the first after a year of silence, and it turned heads as many people feared it would be a major shakeup to the world of SEO.

As it turned out, this Penguin update was actually very minor, affecting a small subset of English queries. It wasn’t an algorithmic update at all; in fact, it was just a data refresh. Some sites, previously penalized by Penguin, saw their rankings return at long last. Others saw fresh penalties applied, perhaps for the first time. Nothing changed in the back end about how Google interprets the data; all that changed was an update to the data being interpreted.

This lets us lead into 2015 with a relatively fresh start. A data update has just been completed, the first in a long time. What does the future hold?

Too Much Anticipation

The very first Penguin algorithm was a massive shakeup to the world of SEO. It was a huge, industry-shaking change to how links were calculated, and it meant the value of backlink building and guest posting was nearly destroyed. Subsequent updates, however, have been something of a wash.

What I mean is this. Take a look at the Moz history of Google updates. Find all the instances of Penguin. See how they all have a similar trend? There’s a lot of hype, a lot of anticipation, and a lot of fear coming from webmasters about the dreaded Penguin destroying their sites. Then, when the update does roll out, it’s less impactful and less widespread than anticipated.

Penguin, then, is an algorithm made up of high expectations and low delivery. The worst part about it, for many webmasters, is how rarely it updates. When you’re stuck with a Penguin penalty, you can be stuck for months, even if you immediately fix the issues that led to the penalty.

This was a problem, and Google recognized it. Rather than keep the algorithm separate and push data updates every 6-12 months, Google has decided on a much more low-key, ongoing approach.

Much like how Panda was integrated into the Google Engine as a whole, Penguin is receiving an ongoing treatment. Rather than sporadic updates every few months, Penguin adjustments will be made on a constant, ongoing basis.

This means two things. First, Penguin is here to stay and it’s going to be a constant presence looming over the shoulders of webmasters everywhere. Second, a Penguin penalty will be much less dangerous. After all, now you’re only looking at weeks of penalized time rather than months.

Is Google rolling Penguin into the Engine at large, or is it still a separate entity, just receiving more consistent updates? As of now, Google hasn’t said.

2015 and 2016 Predictions

I have a few predictions as to the scope and direction of Penguin in the next two years.

It will be added to the totality that is the Google Engine. Much like Panda before it, Penguin has proven to be a success, and will be added on a permanent basis. It won’t require data refreshes; it will work with the live index.

There will be one more large update before this happens. It might be the same update in which this happens, actually. Penguin isn’t done shaking things up, and I think Google is going to throw one more curveball relating to links our way. What I don’t know is, what kind of links will it target? Will it just tighten restrictions already in place, or will it shift the balance of power yet again?

By the end of 2016, Penguin will be an afterthought. The way it treats links is the “new normal” and, unless something drastic happens, there won’t be much in the way of major changes ahead. Google will continue the slow decline of the potency of links, which has been ongoing for years. We just won’t think of it as Penguin’s influence, just as the way things are.

The Penguin name may be lost within two years, but the influence of links won’t be, not entirely. Good links will still be influential, and bad links will still hurt a site, but it will be easier to recover from that penalty. I just expect the middle ground to broaden; good links need to be better to have a beneficial effect, while bad links will remain harmful.

There’s one more prediction I have, but I’m a little less firm about it. Google has received a lot of complaints about how hard it is to deal with link issues, and by extension, Penguin issues. The Disavow tool is one option, but Google themselves call it a last resort. I think within the next two years, Google will introduce a new method for helping webmasters deal with negative links. I just have no idea what it will be or when it will appear.

Coping with an Ongoing Penguin Problem

The path to coping with Penguin isn’t going to change. What will change is how effective it is to do so. Up until the end of last year, when you made changes to appease the Penguin, it could be weeks or months before you saw any change to your ranking. This was due to the data refresh; until Penguin received the data, processed it, and pushed it to the main rankings, your changes effectively didn’t happen.

With the algorithm using the live index, Penguin will be able to respond to changes in a much more reasonable time frame. Therefore, it will be more valuable to respond to Penguin penalties than ever before. Here’s how I would suggest going about it.

First, if you have in a while, pull your backlink profile using a handful of tools. Compare those lists as much as possible, and identify links that you don’t want pointing towards your site. It doesn’t matter if you built the links or if someone launched a Negative SEO attack against you; they exist, so flag them for removal.

Once you have a list of links to be removed, start working to remove them. You should begin by drafting an email with the location of the link and send it to the webmaster of the site in question. Ask them to nofollow or remove the link, depending on how low quality you believe it to be.

Of course, a lot of webmasters aren’t going to respond. The next step, then, would be to take your list to Google’s Disavow tool. Try to avoid this tool except as a last resort, but don’t be too afraid to use it.

If the webmaster asks for money, consider it. Some will ask for a simple $20, which is perfectly reasonable. Others will demand exorbitant fees. Make the decision based on your business finances.