#nintendoomed

Nintendo is riding a few waves of good publicity right now.  The Switch has shipped almost 5 million, and given the reports of constant stock shortages it’s safe to say the sell-through is about the same.  Every Switch first-party software has become a million seller, with 1-2 Switch leading the charge.  Pokemon Go hit a new personal best for revenue in a day, topping the mobile game charts in 23 countries.  And Splatoon 2 had an opening sales week of almost 650,000 physical copies in Japan alone.

So the mature thing for everybody to do right now is point and laugh at the people who got things wrong.

SuperData predicted a solid 5 million unit sales for Switch...for all of 2017.  They were optimistic that they would only reach that after a slow start.

IHS Markit wasn’t going to be swayed by Nintendo’s charms like SuperData though, and figured 4.4 million units sold by year’s-end would equate to success for the Switch.

Jim Sterling mocked the idea of a game like ARMS succeeding with such an emphasis on motion controls.  Zero Punctuation probably did too.

If the professionals got it so wrong, how badly must the amateurs have done?

Here’s a reddit thread called “Switch sales predictions” so let’s see!  The OP, someone called septicdemocracy, predicted 11 million first year!  AHAHAwait, that actually seems pretty on-point.  Even though septic screws up basic maths(7 + 6 = 11?) and, like other brilliant individuals, thought the price point would be a detraction, the end number looks solid.

The other two predictions in that thread are 20-25 million and 15 million first year.  Those might be overshot, but in their defense, it’s largely because Nintendo’s production of the Switch is not reaching those levels, however the demand could have been very well within that range.

Moral of the story: to quote Titus Andronicus (the band, not the fucking psychopathic Shakespeare character), “All the greatest artists, they were amateurs.”  Clearly they were including sales analysts in that category of artists.