#net migration

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When Greenwich and Kent universities said this month they would merge to save money, the heart of their financial difficulties could be found in the UK government’s crackdown on immigration. Tough restrictions on foreign students have sent the number of university applications from abroad plummeting, cutting lucrative tuition fees and leaving all universities facing the same squeeze. Companies are in a similar quandary: construction companies, health trusts and care homes are among those with recruitment worries, after new rules curtailed a longstanding reliance on foreign skilled workers. The latest official figures, released this week, documenting the number of visa applications to live and work in the UK showed a further slump in people successfully navigating the new rules. Only three years ago, annual net migration soared to almost 1 million. This year the number of people entering the UK could fall to such an extent that it drops below the number moving in the opposite direction, sending the figure for net migration below zero for the first time since 1993. While the trend may ease pressure on Keir Starmer from Reform UK, for the chancellor, Rachel Reeves, the trend presents a significant headache, hurting both the businesses that rely on immigrants and a loss of expected tax receipts for the Treasury. Last week, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, a thinktank, likened the effect to Brexit, saying that if net migration fell to zero, it would knock 3.7% off the UK’s annual national income by 2040. According to the Treasury’s economic forecaster, the Office for Budget Responsibility, Brexit has set the economy back by 4%.