Don't say there's never any good news for Democrats.
Rep. Don Bacon's announcement that he won't seek re-election in Nebraska's Blue Dot has given Republicans something new to worry about as they vote on Trump's Big Beautiful Bill to give gigantic tax breaks to billionaires while robbing millions of Americans of affordable healthcare.
The rating system is known as Sabato's Crystal Ball after Prof. Larry Sabato who devised the system.
NE-2 to Leans Democratic
Bacon has been a strong electoral performer since first winning in 2016, defeating the late Rep. Brad Ashford (D) two years after Ashford himself defeated then-Rep. Lee Terry (R, NE-2), a rare instance of a non-presidential party incumbent losing in a midterm year (2014). When Bacon was first elected in 2016, his district concurrently voted for Trump by about 2 points. But it then backed Joe Biden by a little more than 6 points in 2020 and then Kamala Harris by about 4.5 in 2024 under the current lines. Despite this Democratic trend in the district, Bacon defeated Democrats Kara Eastman in 2018 and 2020 and Tony Vargas in 2022 and 2024, although his margin of victory in each of those races never eclipsed 5 points. He won by about 2 points in 2024, surprising us (and many others). [ ... ] There are two main reasons we’re moving this district to Leans Democratic. The first is that removing a proven incumbent, Bacon, from the picture naturally suggests a rating change. We already had this as a Toss-up before, and there’s no guarantee that the new Republican candidate will have the appeal to the middle of the electorate that Bacon seemed to have. The other is based on history: This is the kind of seat that, historically, has been very hard for the president’s party to defend in a midterm.
Capitol Hill Republicans have been terrified of getting MAGA primary challengers if they dare to defy The Orange One. However they have almost totally ignored the rough road they face in the November 2026 general election for supporting Trump's unpopular policies.
