CBDCs and the future of money
Within the global banking field, virtual currencies arguably constitute the most widespread trend over the last few years. Its proponents have argued that central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) are going to define future banking, as they combine the efficiency of digital payments with the safety of central banks. As of now, over 85% of central banks are investigating the possibility of their issuance.
CBDCs around the world:
Source: Updated as of July 2021 based on R Auer, G Cornelli and J Frost (2020), "Rise of the central bank digital currencies: drivers, approaches and technologies", BIS working papers, No 880. Notes: BS = The Bahamas; ECCB = Eastern Caribbean Central Bank, HK = Hong Kong SAR; JM = Jamaica; SG = Singapore
In Europe, specifically, the European Central Bank (ECB), claims that a digital euro would guarantee “costless access to a simple, universally accepted, safe and trusted means of payment”, not replacing cash but functioning as a needed complement which would encourage accessibility, inclusion and innovation. As Fabio Panetta, member of the ECB Executive Board has stated: “We will engage with the European Parliament and other European decision-makers and inform them regularly about our findings. Citizens, merchants and the payments industry will also be involved”.
The project was officially launched in July 2021. The investigation phase started in October and will last for about two years before a final decision is made, testing key features such as design, distribution and impact, while also confronting illicit activities.
What ECB principally tries to do is to raise people’s confidence in central banks and move them away from crypto-assets such as Bitcoin. This is why one of the major issues they focus on is the lack of price volatility, something very common among crypto markets. Moreover, a digital euro could use blockchain technology in order to enhance anti-money laundering (AML) and counter-terrorist financing (CTF), in a way similar to law enforcement practices, which are using such technologies against criminal activities and networks.
However, the project is not without its flaws and risks. One major criticism contends that the ECB will have a hard time complying with AML and CTF regulations without affecting the privacy of its users. While the ECB has tried to address these issues by discussing the possibility of a decentralized model, which would give more power to end-users and the private sector, the consequences that inexperienced intermediaries could potentially cause during transaction processing remains a troubling scenario.
On the upside, CBDCs might limit the use of physical notes and coins. The pressure will then be felt in the shadow economy, the cash-driven activities of which would appear increasingly anomalous and uncovered when compared to legitimate cash transactions. This could turn out to be a crucial step towards fighting financial crime.
It is still unclear what the future will bring, as the issuance of a digital euro might take up to five years to be completed, and potential digital euro-related legislative changes within the EU law could delay the process even further. With proper implementation, however, CBDCs could give birth to long-term opportunities and drastically reshape the nature of European financial transactions.
