An analysis of the current situation in terms of population movements in Libya, including the factors and the possible scenarios, is essential to enable UNHCR and the Nigerien authorities to adequately prepare an assistance and protection response, in anticipation. With the complexity of the situation, it is crucial for UNHCR to collaborate with research institutes to expand the analysis. UNHCR has therefore collaborated with the Clingendael research institute to carry out a study entitled “Southbound Mixed Movement to Niger: An analysis of changing dynamics and policy responses”. Fransje Molenaar led the study.

Ms. Molenaar, is it possible for an external actor to have a good estimation of the number of migrants and refugees in Libya, where they are located, and who they are?

IOM has set up a monitoring system that estimates the number of foreigners in Libya – including their dispersion across the different regions – in the form of their Displacement Tracking Matrix. The caveats that apply are that it is notoriously difficult to collect data in Libya, especially given the fact that migration has become a sensitive issue (especially in the north of the country). In addition, it may be difficult to collect information on migrants kept in informal detention facilities and forced labour situations. This means that the available data should be regarded as a general estimation of the number of foreigners present in Libya. In addition, it should be noted that the data do not distinguish between refugees and migrants.

Is the profile of the refugees / asylum seekers that UNHCR and the Government of Niger welcome in Agadez reflective of the complexity of the scale of movements in the Sahel and North Africa?

The profiles of the refugees and asylum seekers that UNHCR and the Nigerien government received in Agadez are indeed a miniature image of the larger complexity of mixed movements across the Sahel and North Africa. In a mere number of months, refugees and asylum seekers arrived to the city from a diverse number of countries. Sudanese asylum seekers travelled to Niger from Libya, Sudan and Chad. Among them were a group of Darfurian refugees who had previously lived in refugee camps in eastern Chad. Throughout the research, it was suggested that some of these asylum seekers had previously worked in goldmines in northern Niger (which were closed in early 2017). A second group of arrivals consisted of Nigerian asylum seekers, who had travelled directly from Nigeria to Agadez. Thirdly, several West African asylum seekers arrived in Agadez from Algeria. In addition, these movements were organized in many different ways. As can be gauged from figure 3 below, for example, Sudanese refugees and asylum seekers travelled to Agadez from many different locations. Using 4Mi survey data collected by the Mixed Migration Centre (MMC) from 3,500 migrants, refugees, and asylum seekers in Libya, the report has shown that this diverse number of movements is likely the result of the fact that Sudanese rely on their smart phones and personal networks to organize their journeys. Nigerians, on the other hand, are more likely to use smuggling networks to facilitate their travels, which might explain why Nigerian arrivals in Agadez could generally be traced back to a limited number of cities in Nigeria.

Your conclusion is that it is necessary to prepare for new population movements to Niger. Can you tell us more?

The most important thing that the sudden arrival in Agadez of refugees and asylum seekers from many different directions in early 2018 tells us is that that minor developments and policy changes may directly result in population movements to Agadez. Although it is impossible to predict whether new mixed movements will arrive in Niger in the near future, the report has shown that the reality is that there is a large group of people in need of protection present across the region. In addition, there are currently many forces at work in the countries surrounding Niger that (may) increase the need for a protection space and that may push people to find refuge in Niger. In particular, new arrivals of Sudanese and Chadians could be foreseen due to the combination of increasing hardship and the availability of means and connections to travel to Niger. At the very least, this requires an ongoing monitoring effort (including the tracking of information networks used by refugees and asylum seekers to plan their journeys) to be able to prepare for potential new arrivals. In addition, the main lesson from the situation in early 2018 is that interventions in one country may have unintended consequences for other countries in the region. Such regional unintended consequences need to be planned and budgeted for – including under current EU attempts to stop departures from Libya.

Niger is cracking down on smugglers, although those caught up in transporting people across the Sahara need real economic alternatives. By Michelle Hoffman | 09 August 2017 |

Agadez resident Bashir transported people to Libya for 17 years. Since 2015, when this activity became illegal, he has been struggling to find alternatives sources of income to feed his family. © UNHCR/Louise Donovan

AGADEZ, Niger – Bashir grew up in this maze-like outpost perched on the edge of the Sahara, and his knowledge of city and desert made him a successful human smuggler taking people over the searing border to Libya for years. “People seek me out,” he says. “I’m the guarantor of their safety because they’ve come to me.” Before 2012, when strongman Muammar Gaddafi still ruled Libya, he said his clients were focused mainly on going to Niger’s northern neighbour to work – not travelling onward. “Libya was just fine. People could make even more money in Libya than in Italy,” Bashir said, recalling that many of his customers would phone him a few years later, once they had saved enough earnings, to arrange the return journey home. Now, it is widespread insecurity in Libya that has increased the risks for his clients – and triggered a clampdown on the business that earned him a living for 17 years.

In 2015, largely in response to pressure from EU governments, Niger passed a law cracking down on operators helping those travellers, mainly from West and Central Africa, cross into Libya. In return, the EU has offered more than €2 billion in aid to help the region – also including other priority African countries – on issues ranging from security to economic development. Faced with the new law, which punishes people who facilitate the illegal crossing into Libya, Bashir traded in his illicit occupation last October for a new life. Now he helps smugglers like himself to prepare for a career change. He and colleagues have helped hundreds of them to put together proposals seeking promised EU funds which are earmarked for financing business ventures and skills training for those in the smuggling trade. The initiative funds projects of up to US$2,700 for individuals, or US$7,200 for up to four individuals working as a group. “We’re a bit hopeful because the Niger government came to us. They brought us in, and have discussed this directly with us. We’ve told them all our problems,” he said. For centuries a hub in an international trade in gold and salt, and later a site for desert tourism, Agadez has more recently become a centre for smuggling and trafficking in guns, drugs and – above all – desperate refugees and migrants. But the crackdown on human smuggling comes at a cost for the whole country, which ranks 187th out of 188 spots on the UNDP Human Development Index. With a vast swathe of territory to control and a desperately poor population, it has a difficult job both playing gatekeeper and finding an economic alternative for a boom industry.

“We’ve lost our work. We’ve lost our lives – because this was our life. This is what put bread on the table.”

Bashir warns that smugglers need a real solution to abandon the economy that has provided them with a lifeline. “We don’t know how to do anything else,” he said. “Can’t you see? We’ve lost our work. We’ve lost our lives – because this was our life. This is what put bread on the table.” In Niger, where 46 per cent of people survive on less than US$2 a day, a driver who transports people to Libya can make US$4,000, even US$5,000 per trip. But now, to stay on the side of the law, many who have lived off the economy are being forced to find new ways to survive. But not everyone. Though it has been forced underground by the law, signs of the smuggling business are easy to see in Agadez. The city bustles on days before convoys of trucks head into the desert as smugglers stock up on fuel and provisions. Money changers, wire transfer services, mobile phone dealers – selling satellite phones for coverage in the remote desert – dot city streets.

Young men hang out at the bus station in Agadez, hoping to connect with migrants as they arrive. Human smuggling is a key economic activity in the city in Niger, despite a government crackdown in 2015. © UNHCR/Louise Donovan

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